Member Info for Mulder

This was 1350p only last week. Keep holding folks.

RSI remains in oversold territory after the butchery last week. Last day to buy for the dividend tomorrow (Weds)

Shorts even over at M&S are >10% Whole retail sector has been targeted - some wrongly. Pets At Home for example bounced from 155p to 192p this month after a long period of lockdown by shorters. Shorts there were up at 9% at one point.

Another Director has bought 1000 shares on the Nasdaq so >£100K purchase

3x Buys issued this morning Target 6350p It is way off at the moment. Brokers need to earn their money!

The slide last night and this morning was caused by day traders selling out again. All the bad news and broker updates should be out now. None of them have factored in the price rises in the US yet. Hold on and do not sell. Offer could come in at any time also.

Shorts reduced a bit by 0.6% to 4.5% As for dividend when the SP has fallen so much I doubt 8.5p will matter and most likely will be absorbed in this case!

HIK Hikma Pharmaceuticals FTSE 250 1172p $0.11/share Ex-Dividend Thursday 24-Aug Paid 22-Sep

Finding a share that trades around book value is very rare. Even the super-caps trade at many multiples to book value. GSK for example 15x book value AZN 3.3x book value. Debenhams has net assets and total equity of £957.1M Book value is 78p Price to book value is down to 0.52 No wonder Mr Ashley and others are so interested here. The shares are now trading at HALF the book value of this global business.

Group revenue by region H1 2017 [6 month figures] US $586M MENA (Middle East/North Africa) $256M Europe and ROW $53M Generics revenue of $305 million, compared with $257 million in H1 2016, reflecting the consolidation of an additional two months of the West-Ward Columbus business This suggests the West-Ward Columbus business contributes approx $30M/month in revenue so a significant contribution. Prednisolone is a major drug used in many conditions including Asthma, COPD, IBD, Colitis, Crohn's so the liquid version will have big sales among children who are unable to swallow oral medication. Price up 190% per bottle.

I reckon the brokers will have to do a re-rating now won't they? Upgrade in EPS etc. Shows management are reacting also and doing something. Even prior to this news Hikma reminds me somewhat of Berendsen. A different sector yes but parallels. Berendsen had been trading around 1200p for 2-3 years then last year announced they would be spending approx $450M on upgrading their machinery. This was equivalent to 3 years profits. The SP fell from 1250p to 700p. Within weeks a take-over came in from a French firm and the shares are now trading around 1300p. It's balance sheet was not as good as Hikma's either by the way.

https://www.ft.com/content/05ae5a46-8457-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd Hikma’s US unit sharply raises prices of several drugs West-Ward increase cost of medicines by as much as 430% West-Ward Pharmaceuticals, the US division of Hikma, raised the price of six of its drugs at the start of the month by between 75 per cent and 430 per cent, according to figures seen by the Financial Times. The mean increase was 237 per cent.

Clearly a load of tosh - what did you hope to achieve by posting this?

One other thing I would like to say to PI's is DO NOT SELL YOUR SHARES here. It will only help the shorters and may cause another slide. Thursday's volatility was clearly a pump and dump caused by day traders. Do not sell at or near the bottom. The strong balance sheet means Hikma will recover and should not be going bust any time soon. In addition the pharmaceutical sector is supposed to be a defensive sector so should hold up well even if markets fall. Goes ex-dividend next Thursday and given the fall in SP is now yielding >2% -16% in 2 days for a FTSE250 pharmaceutical company. Madness If it does get to book value we will be buying a lot more!

This is another good test of assessing the true value of a company. Hikma is now trading almost at book value (1022p) That is ridiculous and rare to see. P:B ratio is only 1.09 GSK by comparison trades at 15x book value. AstraZeneca 3.3x book value. I am sure many PI's are scratching their heads and nursing heavy paper losses with this one. Many are probably cursing buying in here. However let us go over some 'facts' and some reasons why people bought in: - 1. Hikma is trading at prices not seen since October 2013. In that time revenue and profits have almost doubled. It is a far bigger company now as a result of several acquisitions and has a truly global presence. 2. As recently as March 15th the SP hit 2297p. We are trading 53% off the 52 week high so the upside could be huge. For the past 3 years Hikma had traded comfortably above 2000p, often hitting 2500p 3. Current projected P/E is 13.5 Historic P/E averaged over the past 3 years is 21. That is some discount. Trading at its historic P/E would mean an SP ~ 1750p Down 16% in 2 days post-results for H1 that showed increased revenue, higher EBITDA and flat profits; where's the disaster here? 4. Balance Sheet As mentioned before Hikma has an excellent balance sheet with an equity ratio of 2.26 and a debt:equity ratio of 0.52 far superior to most other pharmaceutical companies. 5. Director Buys Directors have been buying all the way down - there are no recent sales according to records. The Darwazah family control a large stake in the company that they founded. 6. Dividend Cover Great dividend cover of 3.4x with lots of scope for increases. 7. Good prospect of M&A/Private Buy out 8. Price: Book value As mentioned above it is now almost trading at book value given the huge sell off. That is almost unheard of. 9. RSI 1 year RSI of 22 and 5 year RSI of only 21. Most shares bounce around the 30 mark. RSI as low as this is rarely seen and suggests a rebound is well over-due.

What about the Takeda deal? Also if Advair is approved then it suddenly becomes a growth stock again?! Are you saying GSK and some of the other pharma's like Novartis are 'growth' stocks? No they aren't. They are trading with P/E's >30. Hikma's P/E is at 13 only. The growth story is just an excuse for short sellers.

Just to add the inhaler in question Advair is the equivalent of Symbicort that has been around for donkey years, 20+. There are many rivals now so don't see the mad hysteria over the delayed approval of one 'old' inhaler.

Many PI's would have bought on the way down from 2600p where it was only a few months ago. Ask yourself why you bought in and are those reasons still valid? They most likely are. Is the delayed approval of ONE inhaler that they never even had and a slight downturn in the generics revenue enough to wipe out £3Bn from the market cap?! No. Must be some inhaler!

It would not be a surprise to me if we hear something in the weekend press about the Darwazah family 'thinking' about taking this back private or of vultures circling here as we hit 4 year lows.

1 year RSI down to 22 How much more stock left to dump? Don't sell at/near the bottom - you will only help the shorters. What was Buffett's saying again?