Member Info for Mulder

Looking at all the Director Deals over the past 5 years it struck me how the Darwazah family have been increasing stakes quite significantly. The last sell by any director is listed as 2014. Also apart from the 3 directors listed below buys from other directors have been rare and very small at that e.g. 2500 shares. This looks to me like the Darwazah family may well be preparing to take this back private. Said is the son of Samih Darwazah who founded the company in Jordan back in 1978.

Said Darwazah Executive Chairman 11.1M shares in 2014 to just under 15M now +3.9M shares Ali Al-Husry Non-Executive Director 5.1M to 7.1M since 2014 +2M shares Mazen Darwazah Executive Vice Chairman Holding: 3.4M Shares in issue 240M So Said Darwazah alone owns approx 6% of the company

You would think this would help Hikma in getting its own approval for Advair ************************************************************************************************ Mylan shares briefly pulled out of an early-morning swoon after executives tempered concern about regulatory roadblocks for some of its new drugs. Approval of a highly anticipated generic version of the asthma treatment Advair, which was delayed, won’t require additional clinical or device approvals, Mylan President Rajiv Malik said on a conference call. That helped placate investors who had driven Mylan down as much as 7 percent early Wednesday after the company cut its forecast for this year and the next. The shares rose as much as 2.8 percent during the call and were down 2 percent to $31.16 at 12:05 p.m. in New York.

Shire? Wrong board I think.

Also worth noting the very large amount of Director buys over the past 12 months particularly around Nov/Dec 2016 at 1600p+ with some 'transfers' in recent months which look as if they have added to their holdings. Last sell was in 2014.

As PI's we are of course not privy to more privileged information that large institutions, fund managers and brokers may have the advantage of. However, from all the research I have done it is scoring well in all areas apart from dividend yield which (i) has the potential for growth given the excellent cover of 3.6x and (ii) a yield of 1.8% is not too bad for a 'growth' share. Shire's yield is only 0.5% for example. Now the shorters may well be privy to inside 'bad' knowledge again (it has happened before many times) and there may well have been a leak but from the information available I would suggest a fairer SP here based on historical P/E would be around 1800p rising to >2000p in 2018. Hikma must surely be attracting the attention of the larger drug companies for all the reasons mentioned before. As an example Pfizer's market cap is $200Bn. Hikma's ~ $4Bn. A great chance IMO to capture a company trading at 4 year lows that has a solid balance sheet and will grow rapidly in the coming years. (BTW Revenue and profit should have read $ not £)

52 week range: 1330-2324 43% off the 52 week high - pretty much all due to the delayed Generic Advair ruling - one inhaler! Was trading around 2300 as recently as March 15 Market Cap £3.2Bn Description of business Hikma is an international pharmaceutical company conducting operations through three businesses: generic pharmaceuticals, branded pharmaceuticals and injectable pharmaceuticals. The company sells 113 branded and non-branded generic pharmaceutical products in 34 countries worldwide. The majority of Hikma’s operations are in the United States, the Middle East and North Africa Region and Europe. Debt:Equity ratio = 0.53 This is better than GSK, AZN, Shire Equity ratio (current) 2.24 Equity ratio excluding all intangibles and 'goodwill' = 1.35 These figures are very good and far better than the larger drug companies like GSK, AZN and Shire. Hikma has a solid balance sheet. Book value/NAV = 1000p P:B ratio 1.3x This is again better than GSK and AZN whilst on a par with Shire. Revenue has doubled in the past 5 years from £1.1Bn to £2Bn currently Profits were distorted last year due to exceptionals but even taking this into account operating profit has averaged £360M/year. Projected revenue for this year ~ £2Bn EPS projected ~ 90p P/E 2017 ~ 14.8 EPS 2018 projected 102p P/E 2018 ~ 13 Historic P/E is around 21x so huge discount to this currently and compared to wider pharmaceutical sector. Dividend yield low around 1.8% but excellent cover at 3.6x so great scope for increases Shorts have also decreased in recent days which makes the drop even more suspect. All in all solid balance sheet, trading at 4 year share price lows, defensive sector, chance of take-over, global and diverse company, low P/E, great dividend cover, low PEG 2018/earnings to grow 2018 onwards. This makes the near 50% fall in SP over just 5 months and the shorters' interest here all the more baffling. What do you guys think?

Is the loss of ONE potential inhaler that the company never had worth a drop of >1000p? Approval possibly only delayed by a few months. Revenue cut from $2.1Bn to $2Bn. Ask yourself these questions. Insane drop. Half price in a matter of months.

Still an obscene fall. Global pharmaceutical company not an AIM share!

This time last year. Fundamentals and balance sheet remain strong. Defensive sector also. Good buying opportunity IMO Shorters toying with the SP as usual.

Thanks for the offer but I will pass for now. Good to see Pets surging. Well into the 180's now. I do think people should have a look at Mothercare as one that could rebound or taken over. Directors all buying big.

Well done to all who held. So I was right here and the SP was blatantly manipulated and suppressed. Shorts >8% so hope they get stuffed. SP has risen 20% in a matter of weeks. Just shows shorters don't get it right all the time especially when they have no inside information.

Does any one have a copy of the IC article on this company? Losses narrowing year on year which is good but profit margins seem small. From DT: - TP Group plc (formerly Corac Group) is a combination of advanced engineering and technology capabilities serving oil and gas, renewable energy, industrial and defence sectors. The Group works in partnership with system integrators, prime contractors and end-users to build sophisticated products that are placed at the heart of business critical operational systems. These range from offshore gas production platforms to nuclear powered submarines. With a consistent theme of engineering excellence and innovation, Corac companies work on providing advanced technologies or solutions for energy systems, gas management and environment control. The results are technically sophisticated, often unique in their field, and form the basis of long -term, successful relationships. The Group employs more than 170 people across three sites in the UK, and supplies systems and services to customers worldwide.

2 Broker Buy ratings so far this morning Target 6000 and 5350

Not sure why it posted 4x

Shire looks good for a rebound and looks seriously undervalued to me. If you want to take a riskier punt and looking for a good turnaround play MotherCare may come good with a reasonable chance of a takeover also. As always though DYOR

Lets see what the brokers say tomorrow. 6400 seems a way off from here; 5000 perhaps not so much. In terms of equity the current equity ratio is solid here at 1.87 with falling debt which will only help further. I was looking at Rolls Royce yesterday which has a ratio of only 1.09 P:B ratio is also good here at only 1.3x I accept intangibles/goodwill is on the high side but the same applies to other drug companies like GSK and AZN. They both have far poorer equity ratios also at 1.09 and 1.36 respectively. ******************************************* 28-Jun-17 Goldman Sachs Buy 6,800.00 6,400.00 Reiteration 27-Jun-17 Credit Suisse Outperform 5,350.00 5,350.00 Reiteration 27-Jun-17 Deutsche Buy - 6,000.00 Reiteration 22-Jun-17 Citigroup Buy - 6,500.00 Reiteratio

is actually good news for Shire as earnings are reported in dollars! Anything around $1.25:£ will leave the P/E around 10.

Evening Standard 26th July The City rumour mill was in full flow today as deal-hungry traders suggested drug-maker Shire was back in play. Gossips said some of the biggest drugs firms in Europe and the US have hired advisers ahead of a possible tilt at the Dublin-based company. They added that Shire, fearing lowball bids, had hired defence advisers. Earlier this month, the FTSE 100 company’s chief executive Flemming Ornskov hinted that investors were valuing Shire too low after a 10% fall from the share price this year. He pointed to the healthy pipeline of drugs, including for ADHD and haemophilia, which came as part of the £22 billion acquisition of Baxalta. **Shire accepted a £32 billion cash and shares bid in 2014 from US rival AbbVie worth around 5300p per share before a clampdown on tax inversion deals scuppered the takeover.** The shares now languish at 4284.5p, up another 63.31p, or 1.5%, today after gaining ground yesterday, valuing the firm at £39 billion. Shire declined to comment on the speculation. http://www.standard.co.uk/business/market-report-chatter-over-bid-for-shire-puts-suitors-in-frame-a3596666.html

Thanks to strength in hematology and immunology, product sales of $3.59bn in the three months to 30 June were up 55% compared to the same period last year, or up 7% on a combined pro forma basis, leading to revenue of $3.75bn - ahead of a consensus forecast of $3.71bn. The FTSE 100 group generated $1.2bn of operating cash flow, which enabled net debt to be cut by $880m in the quarter. Earnings per share of $3.73 also beat consensus of $3.60 as gross margins were largely in line with expectations. Guidance for earnings per share for the full year was upgraded by 10 cents to a midpoint of $15.00, driven by cost discipline and accelerated extraction of synergies from its Baxalta acquisition, with product sales guidance lowered to $14.3-14.6bn from $14.5-14.8bn. Chief executive Flemming Ornskov said Shire was ahead of schedule to deliver at least $700m in cost synergies from the Baxalta integration by the third year after completion.