The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Trading statement issued, no surprises - no contract issues in US, continued solid growth and a positive outlook, what I was expecting, strategy delivering. So, today - as the authorities are still on Christmas holidays - SP will likely collapse to penny stock level.
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/01/19/why-fevertree-drinks-plc-is-a-top-stock-pick-for-2018/ Reference to GNC in the body of this link. Trading statement due next week, AGM on Jan 30th. Barring surprises - and nothing is being flagged - I'm looking forward to the subsequent SP trading range.
Finally SP closes on good volumes above the TERP following the Peacock Rights Issue announcement, almost a year to the date !, just what the recent SP fall and rise was all about God only knows, but I'm comforted by the fact that the market regulators are giving it their full attention. Anyhow, now that the market is again accepting the initial value proposition, my next predictions for GNC. Unfortunately, unlike most shares which price in forward good news in advance, my experience as a very long time holder is that GNC is a share which moves only after the predicted good news has been realised. The good news WILL happen, GNC does not do surprises. The next trading update will be the start of the next upward move. I must check to see how much cash they have, share buyback would be nice, don't rule out a trade bid either, this share is still relatively cheap. That's my good news. The bad news for me this year is that sterling decline has creased me ! Maybe GNC will move listing back to Dublin ... please ?
I'm expecting this "bunch of Micks" to follow in the footsteps of that long line of successful Irish business Micks - Mick O'Leary, Mick Jagger, Mick's Garage, Notorious Mick'Gregor, even Mattress Mick. If there is no serious ex-div pull back tomorrow, SP will clearly be headed for where it belongs and in safe hands, it might even bring a smile to Princess Mick of Kent while she nibbles on a GNC cucumber sarnie
200 floor breached with ease, now at 210, already 15% higher than yesterdays low, I suspect when US kicks in shortly - I hope Brew Dog has his drinks cabinet stocked - we could be in Bitcoin like gains territory. I'm excited and livid, the share slide was never justified and markets are really not served well when these swings happen when there is no fundamental reason for it.
Next key date is Friday to see if this momentum is maintained - ex div date, I'm not an active trader in this share, in keeping with Santa theme I have a sled load of shares for decades , only add with rights issues and scrip div's - speaking of which, the scrip could be a nice play as SP at div payment date in April '18 could well exceed scrip offer SP
Interesting day, any challenges were internal operational and not external market - and while avoidable, very fixable. Fundamentals good. SP swing of 7.5% V's day's low, mostly after US came on line and eventually some intelligent and sizeable buys. I predict we've seen the bottom of the SP today .... I'm drafting a post dated apology to Santa.
Keenly awaiting tomorrow's results, expecting solid financial results with no downside surprises, generous final dividend, positive forward outlook. However it appears that not even Santa Claus can deliver the SP move that this share deserves at the moment. Management will continue to execute strategy and as posted previously, the rewards will be worth waiting for.
The latest RNS says the CEO has taken up his latest scrip dividend and immediately incurred a paper loss of about �14k because of the difference between scrip offer SP and current SP - now the clue is in the word "paper" loss. You can be absolutely certain that both the CEO and anyone else on the board/management team who have followed suit will be sitting on a paper profit in due course. I'm not one to forecast when - as Mr Buffett says, forecasts tell nothing about the future but a lot about the forecaster - but if I was one of those traders/institutions who has been betting against the SP, I will forecast that your Christmas bonus won't be able to buy you a GNC sandwich.
I agree, I believe the management team are fully aware of how ridiculous the current SP is but obviously can�t comment without any specific news. As mentioned in a previous post, they also have a proven track record in rewarding shareholders over decades � the dividend is fabulous ; when they tap shareholders � anyone who signs up gets handsomely rewarded � the Aug 2011 rights issue price was 46 euro cent !!!! I fully expect to get similarly rewarded for taking part in the Peacock rights issue, while at the same time continuing to enjoy my dividends. It�s such a pity that the short term fluctuation in SP could be causing some anxiety for PI�s. I don�t need to sell at the moment. These guys are professionals and fully understand the difference between bad news and a surprise, they don�t do surprises, they have managed through foot and mouth scares and horsemeat scares with transparency. The recent listeria issue doesn�t even register as bad news, every day in the biotech industry there are alert limits and sometimes alarm limits exceeded for environmental monitoring excursions, it�s the effectiveness of the quality system to systematically detect and determine root cause and permanently fix issues and protect customers which the FDA worries about. A systemic problem would be bad news and the company would be obliged to reveal this, but the FDA would beat them to it by issuing a warning letter. Even then, all the FDA wants to see is a credible corrective action plan. So let�s look at the two most important recent events that matter � the most recent financial results update has been encouraging and the management team have been buying their own shares. Hello ????? As mentioned before, the authorities really do need to get their act together when SP moves like this are taking place.
I've been in this share for years, in fact 2nd family generation, it's a quarter of my portfolio by value, bought into all of the rights issues, there was a big downward over correction in Aug'11 after the Uniq purchase which made absolutely no fundamental sense at the time, it subsequently recovered with no additional new news !, and then took off further with the listing move to London from Dublin ; so the current SP performance has historic precedence. The company strategy is crystal clear and is being backed up with active execution building on a solid track record over decades, these guys are not amateurs. The most disappointing aspect to me is the lack of transparency about how the market operates and I only wish the authorities would get a grip on this. It's not as if there is rampant fear out there right now. What is the true value of the company ? - certainly much higher than current SP and indeed if any offer was put on the table, I would safely predict a >30% premium to current SP, and likely much higher. Market credibility is not served well when a bid comes in significantly higher than current SP. In the mean time, hold for the long haul, get used to the sight of white knuckles and hope that market authorities start doing their job