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I do have an ignorant question….
Is it the case that we are simply providing our own Vitamin D and Iron tests to Boots for them to White Label. I’m assuming so given that Yates has confirmed we’re fulfilling material production orders during H2 24. Great if that is the case
Just goes to highlight the very wide broad and diverse mix of revenue opportunities now available to ABDX arising out of general LFT awareness, massive leaps in tech, and the extensive customer base it’s steadily built despite a few years of painful cost control. Well done to the BOD.
Well apart from anything, it gives us a foothold with the largest U.K. pharmacy brand, which is great for us and surely must be attractive to any potential CRO/CDMO partner ultimately looking to commercialise through the retail self test market.
So that’s now Boots, Tesco, and Superdrug we have relations with. Not bad. Not bad at all.
A bit more on VenomAid and their plans to now initiate manufacturing
https://www.venomaid.com/news/venomaid-extends-its-seed-round-to-a-total-of-1-8-m-for-affordable-and-rapid-snakebite-diagnostics
Another potential one, borne purely out of mutual reactions I’ve noticed between VenomAid Diagnostics and Yates for some time. Founded in 2018 they spent a few years developing a test for Snakebite, and in 2023 attracted $1.8m seed funding to accelerate development to market and clinical testing. That is when all the reactions started and it’s not much of a leap to think some of the seed money came, and may still be coming our way.
https://www.venomaid.com/
Latest LinkedIn post Yates liked
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/venomaid_phdoftheyear-snakebite-impact-activity-7175741991522091009-jBbP?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Further interesting post and comment from our Liam Currivan today regarding Eco-Flo
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/liam-currivan-8bab88135_heriot-watt-university-creates-lateral-flow-activity-7175735834115985408-xiTu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
In case anyone missed it by the way, at about 2.43 in the pitch link I gave earlier in this thread, LVOne talk about how their test might be priced, saying “LVOne could be sold at a maximum of £620 and still be cost effective to the U.K. Healthcare system NHS.”
Now whether or not that’s anywhere close to final pricing is anyone’s guess, and so would be our % cut as manufacturer, but talking of many hundreds of pounds for a single test gives an idea of revenue potential here. Remember, the real value of LVOne is in the massive long term cost saving resulting from earlier, even 90 minute earlier, diagnosis, and that may well be worth the NHS shelling out that kind of money. And not to forget, NHS leaders were on the panel that chose Upfront as winners.
Again just for info but a company called NordicDx, which develops aquaculture tests to monitor fish health (presumably in farms) put this out today.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tommy-selnes-101a9653_nordicdx-revolusjonerende-teknologi-for-activity-7175375881006104576-vdUW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
As you will see, it’s in Norwegian and completely innocuous, but despite that both Chris Yates and our sales Director, Liam Currivan liked it. It relates to this article which describes a new digital reader for their LFT
https://nordicdx.no/en/nordicdx-no-innovativ-fiskehelseovervaking-digitalisering-hurtigtester-lfa/
I can’t think of any reason why both these ABDX guys would react to it unless we were somehow involved. Could be wrong.
Just for info but ABDX posted a job advert for a full time Supply Chain Assistant at the beginning of the month, and for a Part Time Buyer within the supply chain yesterday
https://www.google.com/search?q=jobs+at+abingdon+health&rlz=1C1BFEM_en-gbGB1004GB1004&oq=jobs+at+abingdon+health&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRifBTIHCAUQIRifBTIHCAYQIRifBTIHCAcQIRifBTIHCAgQIRifBTIHCAkQIRifBdIBCDU2ODNqMGo0qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&ibp=htl;jobs&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwihrteZrv6EAxUFS0EAHV7fBVMQkd0GegQIEBAB#fpstate=tldetail&htivrt=jobs&htiq=jobs+at+abingdon+health&htidocid=u_H6W8dAPmMquULfAAAAAA%3D%3D
What exactly is behind this is anyone's guess, but both roles seem geared to the manufacturing arm of the business so it could relate to improved Salistick sales, the new OEM contract orders Yates has told us about, something else, or it could just be he's replacing staff that have left!
Pretty mundane stuff I know, but always good to be aware of these things.
Another quiet day...
The only thing that's interesting is that all but one of the transactions today have been sells, yet each of those sells was transacted at a higher price than the last. So the actual bid is rising even though all we are seeing is sells.
And I noticed in the auction this morning that we had two Direct Market Access offers for stock, one for 100,000 at 8.5, and the other at 7999 at 9.
So I am wondering if these two things might indicate a sizeable buy order in the background, although I freely admit that's outside of my competence so would appreciate any insights others might give.
Jamrock - I’ve wondered if the two might be a good fit too. And TBH me well still be working together (see the links)
https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/acquisition-concepta-yorkshire-lateral-flow-manufacturing-site-outsource-concepta-manufacturing-requirements/
https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/mhealth-partnership-agreement-signed-with-concepta-plc/
Thanks HarChris and yes that will, I expect be the basic concern. And I’d be foolish to say it won’t happen.
I can only say the Yates has repeatedly expressed his distaste for dilutive raises, and has confirmed again in the interims that “ The primary objective of the Board remains to move the Company to a breakeven and cash flow positive position which it forecasts will be achieved in 2024 without the need for additional funding.”
Yates has been like many other AIM CEO’s by laying out a plan, sticking to it, and succeeding with it, and I’m struggling to recall any time when he’s made forecasts that haven’t come to pass.
I think 2024 is going to be a pivotal year for ABDX as it’s broad and diverse mix CRO/CDMO customers move into manufacturing. Manufacturing (automated in our case with currently unused capacity to make millions each month) generates revenue at far higher margins and so with that, cash will rise.
I personally cannot see a better time to get in.
As I’ve said before, I’m just excited by the potential here! It sells itself.
So why doesn’t the market agree? Am I missing something?
Personally I just think that in the minds of the herd we’re just that boring covid company which rarely has anything to say, where the price might sometimes spike on news only to settle back in the doldrums. The message just isn’t getting out there that in fact we have turned the tanker, placing risk for 2024 has all but vanished, that we offer a market leading, knowledge leading, full function service, and have now dug the groundwork to yield a large mix of sticky clients on the cusp of commercialisation targeting a very diverse mix of applications in a growing market, to include global healthcare services, for which we can manufacture at scale and at increasing margins. And this is all against the backdrop of an overburdened NHS that badly needs to control cost and effectively triage patients, and a society where home LFT testing has become understood. And then we have massive alignment with Directors and a low free float.
The main risks as far as I see them remain with the perceived accuracy of LFT’s, which we know on here is increasing rapidly as molecular tests come on line (Note our Nina Garrett is speaking on that subject at a conference this week), and possibly the potential for Directors to take us private again (although that seems highly unlikely to me).
But I’d really love to hear any concerns others might have in case I’m suffering from confirmation bias!
And another, again for those interested
https://nhscep.com/2024/03/12/new-finger-prick-test-detects-sepsis-in-cancer-patients-at-home/
An article from 15/3 describing their journey for anyone interested. Note that the “contract research organisation” referenced in the article is ABDX.
https://www.360dx.com/point-care-testing/uk-diagnostics-firm-52north-plans-2025-european-us-launches-neutropenic-sepsis