Member Info for Muck165

Https://www.gov.uk/government/news/from-smartphones-to-fridges-uk-to-end-overreliance-on-imports-of-critical-minerals.

And we even get cited in the government post.

Professor Allan Walton, Co-Director of the Birmingham Centre for Strategic Elements and Critical Materials (BCSECM), University of Birmingham and Director of Hypromag Ltd, said: 

“We are delighted to see that the new Critical Minerals Strategy focusses on midstream processing and the circular economy where the UK has significant strengths particularly in the rare earth value chain.  

The University of Birmingham’s Centre for Strategic Elements and Critical Materials and Hypromag Ltd have recently commenced rare earth magnet manufacturing in the UK for the first time in over 25 years from recycled end-of-life products. 

“This process means it is possible to manufacture new magnets with an extremely low environmental footprint and at lower cost compared to other recycling options. Our activities within magnets and other critical materials perfectly align with the new focus of the Critical Minerals Strategy.”

From November last year I think..?

Unfortunately I missed it - anyone know if it was recorded and how it can be viewed? Thanks

Full integration into IRIS seems to have been under appreciated by the mkt I think.

As I understand it, we are now a turnkey solution that IRIS platform customers can request or, more importantly, IRIS sales staff can offer as part of bespoke packaged solutions to platform customers. Essentially, it reduces commercial sales friction by embedding us into a platform that’s already trusted by customers and effectively widens our “sales force” to include IRIS sales staff. IRIS also provides customers with all the KPI metrics from a campaign so they can see the enhanced values being driven by solutions like CIQ, and to get into IRIS you have to jump quality and tech hurdles, so doing so represents a level of CIQ validation.

There are certainly other CIQ competitors that are also IRIS enabled, but if we can differentiate ourselves either in the offering or by price, then IRIS should I think act as a potentially significant growth accelerator.

The question in the Q&A was; “ Given the current financial position and the RNS of 17 November, do you anticipate the need for another placing?”

The answer was; “ The Company has no current intention of conducting a placing to satisfy the 31 December 2025 debt repayment.”

Now, I’m certainly not saying another raise is coming. But rather than giving a straight “no”, the answer given contains two caveats; “no current intention”, and “to satisfy the 31 December 2025 debt repayment”.

Intentions can change, and they’ve left the door open to raise for purposes other than debt repayment.

Don’t disagree that a re-organisation plan may extend over multiple years and be regularly reviewed for compliance.

What I am saying is that no re-organisation plan is currently in place. We have not got to the point of one being finalised - that is expected to happen by the end of Q1.

If you disagree, perhaps you could point me to any RNS or other documentation showing that a re-organisation plan (not activity reports or creditors tables) has been agreed by creditors and approved by the Court.

ASI

From the results

“The reorganisation REQUEST was approved by the Court and a final creditor reorganisation plan is expected to be presented to the Court and finalised by the end of the calendar Q1 2026.”

Suggest you’re sure of your facts before you make a prick of yourself again.

I think secured debt is now about $11 - $11.5m following the last repayment.

But people forget the unsecured trading debt of Baita, particularly with ANAF. If I recall from the accounts that’s about $13m, with amounts due in each of the next 3 years of c$4.5m p/a. That will all be part of the reorganisation plan to be presented and approved by the court by end Q1.

Yep - im particularly encouraged by the way they’re managing the business. Cash up without going to the markets or using the Bassi facility. They’ve been through and managed the doldrums - now to ride the wave out

Https://x.com/asjwebley/status/1989578827538825508

Thanks for sharing NN - big difference between “I expect” and something lesser like “I hope”.

Very positive….

@Naughtyneil

JH had told me an IMC in November. Now it’s December, with perhaps news beforehand.

Don’t know what you think, but to me that absolutely smacks of a company that has been fully expecting signed contracts, probably for announcement before the originally intended November IMC, but delayed because of the shutdown with the IMC in December.

Personally I think good news is coming this month, and I’ve taken advantage of these low prices today.

A further reply from Paul. I was unaware a new Zeus broker notes issued today was issued this morning.

“As I said, this is something they intend to raise with their Board colleagues, so let's see.

On today's call the Company referred to the current market forecasts - not old broker notes issued months and months ago. The Zeus note was issued this morning and represents the current market expectations. These will be aligned with the guidance from the Company, so you would not expect them to be materially different from the management's own expectations, and should there be a change in the Company's performance or expectation of its performance then they would issue an announcement to change that guidance.

If you are not aware the market forecasts are for revenues of £12.2m next year (FY26) and breakeven at the adjusted EBITDA level, and £15.1m revenues for FY27, and an adj. EBITDA of £1.1m.

I'm not sure of whether Zeus have restrictions on who can view their research but you can always contact them via their research portal and see if you can view their research - usually retail customers has to sign a waiver to say that they would seek professional, independent advice before investing as their research is intended for institutional investors only. You can certainly contact them and see: https://zeuscapital.co.uk/log-in/research-portal-login/#/portal/zeus-capital

There is no refusal to give guidance on forecasts - these are found in the regularly updated and current broker notes, that set the market expectations. We expect to update our own Walbrook 2 page summary for Abingdon post the results and will make sure you're sent this as it will contain the market forecasts.“

For info, I wrote to Paul McManus at Walbrook again today, to which he has quickly replied. Both emails below

“Hi Paul

Please pass on my thanks to the ABDX board for doing the results presentation today.

In your email below you say you would expect the full LTIP performance conditions will be published in the annual report, yet today Mr Hand refused to commit to that when asked.

Please confirm that they WILL be fully disclosed. If not, please explain why not given the repeated confirmation that they align with shareholder interests.

Many thanks“

His reply

“ Thanks for your email Mark,

Yes, that was my original understanding and what I had been guided to previously, and that guidance was contradicted in today's IMC.

You will note on the call that I did specifically pass on the feedback from investors for transparency in relation to the criteria for the LTIP. This is something they will raise with their Board colleagues on the remuneration committee.

Kind regards,

Paul ”

As for the LTIP, I wrote to Walbrook at the beginning of October and received this in reply

“We would expect that the full performance conditions will be published in the Annual Report in due course and, as you'd expect, they are targeted at improving the Company's share price performance. The Company's FY25 are expected to be published later this month, and the Annual Report is usually published a few weeks after that.”

So it was difficult to see Hand try and squirm out of it again today.

Any thoughts on the presentation?

They seemed pretty bullish to me.

But there is one thing that really annoys me, and that when asked about forecasts they immediately refer back to a broker note published months and months ago. Surely like any business they run monthly management accounts and will therefore have their own, much more current, idea about revenue and breakeven forecasts. Why won’t they just tell us what those are??

The 40% increase is a bit of a red herring for me, because it’s a measure against poor prior year numbers.

I understand why the gross margin has fallen - a significant slug of our overall revenue owed to CS and Ivdeology, both of which have lower margins. And overheads increased because of expansion costs.

I think we need about £12m to £12.5m to breakeven. That seems very achievable to me given the US footprint and the significant contracts it’s helping to win us.

The numbers don’t really come as much of a surprise Brighty - certainly it’s good to see YoY revenue growth but I think excitement there needs to be tempered by the poor 2024 numbers.

Last year was a period of investment and consolidation. Hopefully it will act as a springboard. Recent contracts suggest it will, and the strong outlook comments give comfort.

As a point to note,I see we’ve written off our investment in Eco-Flo….

Still a novice at understanding the nuances of AIM auctions, but we’ve just entered the normal mid morning one with someone bidding for 120k at 0.49.

Yep - great news.

Clearly some timing at play here. Give notice of results and then put out a suite of positive RNS in the run in to them. Makes me wonder if the results tomorrow might themselves be accompanied by some more good news…