Member Info for MU345

It’s the media attention which will send this nuts mind. I don’t think some realise how important this development is in the fight against covid.

Phenomenal Achievement.

Range broken, should be in triple figures before long.

Where’s DubleD? Someone let him know we’ve left the 50’s.

And I don’t think we’ll be returning!

That BBI tweet is huge news. This is primed.

Imo. The media attention this achievement will bring shortly will be unprecedented.

It’s exactly the catalyst needed to get the SP to something more sensible.

Omega remains on track to have production capacity in place this month to produce an initial 100,000 AbC-19™ Rapid test per week, scaling up to 200,000 tests per week capacity in October. If demand through the UK-RTC was to go above 200,000 tests per week, either from the UK Government, or from other third parties, the Company would allocate additional capacity to meet that demand as well.

Sounds great.

I agree, I expected us to be at £1 by this stage. But things can change so quickly. Shares can sit in a range and when you least expect it a catalyst can drop and change everything.

I just cannot get my head around the numbers. If for example we profit £1.50 from each test on average (for example Mologic lateral flow Antibody approx £1.80 / RTC £0.75). A year at full 2,000,000 weekly capacity would provide profits of £144,000,000. With antigen tests being more lucrative? Alongside global RTC sales.

In the Q&A there was recognition that capacity potentially wouldn’t be enough. So I’d fully anticipate us to be at the 2,000,000 limit once up and running. Should demand go above that which I expect it will, there may well be allocation of additional facilities.

I do think orders are imminent now, I didn’t understand why the government would order prior to achieving MHRA approval. But the fact BBI & Abingdon are referencing jobs directly to the RTC above anything else, Omega advertising for around 15 jobs as we speak. It’s pretty clear.

I’m looking forward to getting another buy order in first thing. So please no news. In fact. Another CE approval would do nicely. That was a nice discount last week.

If this is £1 at Christmas something has gone terribly wrong for me. We were at 92p on the announcement we were involved with testing and would have been higher if not for the speeding ticket and then placing.

Since then our manufacturing capacity was arranged to be increased circa 1000%. At a time when the expectation was Covid would be around for a few months or maybe a year. Whilst antibodies in the fight against covid are far more crucial than previously thought. Then, the quality of the RTC test which is gold standard turned out to be even better with 99.40% accuracy.

As per the interviews at Ulster discussing the test being rolled in September. This will be an excellent achievement, the order from the government will come in on the back of The imminent MHRA approval and it’ll be bounced around every news outlet. Especially in the midst of a second wave with economy on its knees. These devices will be priceless in terms of what they can achieve.

The penny just hasn’t dropped.. yet.

Nkb100. “What are the next steps in this investment?”

Well for me, awaiting final approvals on several top
tier covid tests alongside ramping up substantial manufacturing capacity.

For example the Mologic antibody test which was CE marked last week provides circa £1.80 profit to ODX per test. So if for example, globally, demand was full lateral flow capacity. You are looking at circa £7.2m per month profit. With 50% capacity for Elisa tests remaining. (Once we reach full volume of course).

But as we know, demand will determine the scale of each test produced. Whilst the potential need for even further capacity has been recognised by Omega.

ODX in time will have the manufacturing capacity to produce:
1,000,000+ Elisa tests per week
1,000,000+ Lateral Flow tests per week

1) RTC Covid-19 Rapid Lateral Flow antibody test - Test is undergoing usability studies at Ulster as we speak allowing for final approval from MHRA.
I think early expectations are £0.75 profit per test so at say half overall capacity (500,000) you're looking at £1,500,000 profit per month. However, that profit margin is in relation to the government, should the test be sold elsewhere i'd expect greater profit margins. So if the government for example want 200,000 and ODX sell 300,000 elsewhere i'd expect that figure could easily be £2,000,000+ profit per month.

2)Mologic Covid-19 Lateral Flow Antibody Test - Received CE mark this week and is set for full marketing launch later this month for professional settings. Currently undergoing 'WHO' emergency listing - opening up opportunities to access global tenders where this approval is required.
"House Broker FinnCap has estimated that Omega will recieve approximately £3.20 for each packaged and labelled test, with a gross margin in the region of 50 per cent".
So, for example, if half the lateral flow capacity was utilised for this test it would provide monthly profit of £3,600,000.

The above would be covering only 50% of eventual overall capacity. Other tests may be more lucrative.

such as:
- Mologic Elisa Antibody Test - Approved for sale I believe. Whilst being evaluated in multiple countries, recently received approval for sale in India.
- Mologic Covid-19 Lateral Flow Antigen Test - Which is being trialled at Heathrow airport.
- I believe there are others.

Having several tests to produce covering antibody & antigen in decentralised and centralised settings ensures that there'll always be substantial demand, so that manufacturing capacity is consistently at maximum. The worry which has already been recognised is whether capacity will however be enough. Hence the 2,000,000 (+).

Its no wonder the broker suggested "Previous sum-of-the parts analysis indication of a potential valuation that is substantially in excess of the current market capitalisation". The revenue which will be generated shortly has simply not been recognised by the market.

- Food Intolerance - Industry growth at CAGR 9.1%. 9,200,000 revenue in 2020. With China offering significant growth potential. Forecast 1,000,000 sales in China alone by 2023 at US$15.5 per test.
- Allergy - Omega will continue to manufacture 69 allergens to meed IDS demand.
- CD4 testing - Industry growth at 10.5%. Expecting 4,000,000 to 5,000,000 test sales by 2023 at $4 per test 70% margin. Approx $14,000,000 profit.

And yet here we stand at 96.29m Mcap. Though as indicated by the broker i'm expecting something "substantially in excess" of that. Valuations of Food Intolerence and CD4 already far exeed current Mcap, not including anything Covid related.

Baffled.

PI’s views of a company are often based around the SP oppose to the company’s fundamentals unfortunately. The share price was 300p a month ago, whilst a placing was arranged at a much higher price to where we sit currently providing a great buying opportunity.

I’ve been accumulating recently at these cut-rate prices and will be continuing to do so, business is cash strong with a pipeline full of catalysts.

If you trust the SP the market will play you like a fiddle. I’m perplexed at any selling around these levels.

https://bbigroup.peoplehr.net/Pages/JobBoard/Opening.aspx?v=35a206ac-9a03-4a5b-9d53-6eddde69b689

What’s also worth pointing out is all the jobs being advertised with direct reference to producing antibody tests for home use.. As oppose to the antigen tests they’re also involved with.

This share is literally hitting you in the face with signals. I just feel for those who have left the station just as the train was about to turn up...

I’m not sure anywhere I’d rather invest at the moment. A company on the cusp of producing arguably the most important devices globally in covid tests which will soon be in huge volumes. With ties to both the government alongside Mologic who seem to be ahead of the pack.

The problem across the board is both being able to provide a highly accurate test and the associated manufacturing capacity to to meet the demand. So in times like this, being able to manufacture a product at scale is paramount.

Granted the likes of AVCT are developing their own product from scratch and that’s great. But the need to produce endless quantities is overlooked, it’s almost as though once the test is developed that’s job done. Because to be honest there are numerous good quality tests available with higher quality ones being developed as we speak. However, are there sufficient facilities to ensure whole population have access and will continue to have access? I very much doubt.

When demand is so substantial.. manufacturing capacity is priceless.

The lack of progression (if that’s what you see it as) on orders whilst we are able to produce 100,000 tests per week can so easily be made up whilst we are making 1,000,000 / 2,000,000+ per week. This is likely why the board will be focusing on increasing the manufacturing capacity oppose to orders alongside having several tests in the armoury to produce. As shown with a further CE this week. It’s only makes sense that this would be the case and I wouldn’t like to think it was any different.

But in today’s world, nobody can wait. It has to be here and now. Or Colin said We might be in a position to take an order next week so I’m taking it as gospel... It’s unbelievable these people invest.

Sell, deramp, Chuck the toys out of the pram if you like. But when the order does hit good luck buying back in, because oh boy.. you’ll certainly need it. But as always, many will need it spelling out to them in an RNS first but I certainly won’t be paying for that luxury.

Have a good weekend.

15% down since the CE marking of the Mologic antibody test... Impressive. I wonder the impact if the antibody test didn’t achieve the CE mark...

Nevermind, I added a few more today and will continue if there’s any further weakness.

And I’m surprised if you think a market accurately represents a companies value. When this jumped 100% in 3 days without any news not so long back. I expect the greatest value to be achieved whilst we are churning out over 2,000,000 of these tests per week in any case. The SP can do whatever it likes in the meantime for me.

I’d just google “recent covid antibody studies” and read the ones which are reputable.

As oppose to “old studies suggesting antigen tests are all we need and not antibody testing which I am against”.

I thought the recent studies had put all of these queries to bed?

I’d suggest giving them a read.

“The gov isn't going to put in a large order for a potentially useless test”.

Apart from all the orders they’ve already carries out for sub standard tests in comparison to the RTC.

Please think when you’re writing or it’s just a waste of time writing anything.

Not only will antibody tests enable governments around the world to understand how many people have immunity against the novel coronavirus, and therefore decide when to bring their populations safely out of lockdown, they also improve epidemiological understanding of the virus’s lethality, and how it has spread globally.

One of the many importance’s for mass antibody testing

Same here. That filter option is a brilliant tool.

If people weren’t willing to sell at 65p before the CE mark not sure why they’d be selling at 55p now...

Though I’m on the hunt for some cheaper ones so feel free to continue.

Each to their own, though I won’t be offloading a penny’s worth south of £1. With a target of £2. Though the fundamentals have improved since I set that target so may need to revise slightly.

GLA.

Put a sell order on at 7:04 this morning and managed 0.72 for the lot.

The amount of times I’ve held and the share price always hits the placing price and often goes below.

Not saying it’s bad for the company though. But dilution might take the wind out of the sales for some time. I’ll be interested in adding again towards the 0.50 mark.

Long term like has been mentioned, will be forgotten about in 12 months time.

GLA