Member Info for MTSparky

All looking strong prior to massive stimulus programme and demand surge :

Copper $3.5625
Silver $24.3
Gold $1850

Hopefully the BFS will show how quickly and cheaply they can target the gold and silver with highest grades and get this to market ASAP. Cashflow to limit funding requirements and plough back into the other assets. I can see a fund raising of about £4m coming.

If you look at previous PEA and Hard rock Consulting report they both give mining costs per tonne of ore and total tonnage. The HRC report gives indication of the likely tonnages.

252,000 tonnes of Cu equivalent should make for good reading but .........

For guestimate purposes can you not use cu equivalent numbers and 85% process recovery ?

Has anyone run the numbers and come up with an estimated NPV yet?

If we use say $4.5 per lb Cu and apply to Aug 2019 NPV that's £1.36/sh just for the copper. There is $500m of gold and silver to add to that.

Its one of those things I guess, we either believe the opinions and assessments by the independent experts or we have all been hoodwinked. Soon find out !!!

"I cant find a plan to fully finance the next steps of the evaluation of the claims that they have"

You do realise that a new PEA with feasibility study and finance plans is what we are waiting for? This document is due for release. If you go through previous RNS you will see previous PEA's but they didn't include the gold and silver. Until we get the new and final PEA/NPV for empire we are stuck at 40p.

It is difficult to pin down an exact estimate as previous PEA have not included gold and silver. Also PXC may go for a phased approach to the Empire pit, targeting the shallow gold and silver first. The easy wins. So we could see:

1) Phase 1 revenue $600,000,000
2) Phase 1 profit $450,000,000
3) Phase 1 expenditure $150,000,000

Phase 1 might last 5 years £60-70m profit per year. There will likely be share dilution but we don't know how much. They will need about £40m to start the mine. Phasing the operation may reduce this. If they do raise cash via a placing it would surely be above 40p. I was thinking they might issue 20m shares at say 80p-£1 and loan £30m. This would give them spare cash to start to develop Red Star et al. They can then invest cash generated from phase 1 to complete the other mines to production and continue to phase 2 empire which would be the deeper stuff and finally the deep sulphide.

For any share price calculation I am using 90m shares. The key thing is that PXC get to turnover some cash ASAP. I cannot see Copper getting cheaper any time soon. $10,000 per ton next year. PXC may even get bought out. The copper grade of the deeper stuff is as high as ~3.6%, 0.5% I believe is the norm. They may strengthen the board and senior management.

All unknown at this stage which is why I guess we are still stuck at 40p/sh since July.

I am going to say £2.50/sh including likely share dilution to 92m shares. 6x bagger from where we are isn't too shabby !!..;o))

In August 2019 the PEA has the following assumptions based on copper/zinc only:

1) LOM revenue $461,346,000
2) LOM profit $177,336,000
3) LOM expenditure $284,019,000

Items 1 & 2 should be substantially higher than those figures. Not sure on Item 3, need to add gold and silver production.

predictions of $10,000 per ton copper in 2021. I wonder what value will be included in the PEA. If we use say $4.5 per lb Cu and apply to Aug 2019 NPV that's £1.36/sh plus the gold and silver. We have a total of 252,208 cu equivalent tons. If you say only 70% of that is produced that is still £1.4bn. Not too shabby for a starter mine !!...;o))

"With the copper price at an eight-year high and gold continuing to trade at historically high prices we believe that, as we approach 2021, investor interest in Phoenix Copper and its project will only increase. We're looking forward to working with the Company regarding its ongoing finance and development as well as lifting its profile in North America."

.....It has been a frustration of mine at the lack of interest in USA for Phoenix. Hopefully this will change now, and that dual listing will pay dividends. The US markets dwarf the UK in terms of volume so it should be an interesting few weeks ahead !...;o))

In August 2019 the PEA has a NPV $70.5m @ $3.50/lb cu. This is for 68,500 tons copper + 16,500 tons Zinc PA. This is approx 60p/sh. Every 25c added to Cu price adds 19p/sh.

We now need to add the 238,406 oz gold and 7.59m oz silver say $500m LOM revenue. Surely the majority of the LOM expenditure is included in the copper NPV (digging). Anyway is an NPV circa $150m about right? £1.30 per share based on 92.8m shares.

Any thoughts on likely NPV and share price?

I am quite nervous because the SP and volume doesn't match the likely NPV for Empire. We are either going to boom like a sonic jet or end up lower than a submarine crap house. You have to believe what you are told by the experts and trust that they have some integrity I guess. AIM though so.....

Anyone who knows anything about investing in mining have nothing but positive things to say so we remain hopeful !!

Mid to end of Nov they said, so could arrive Monday !! Based on information issued and estimates done by hardman & co this new PEA is going to be stonking. NPV £25+ maybe. It was £17.4 in May 2020 minus the gold and silver !

Copper $336 and climbing. World stocks at all time low *rubs hands together * production in USA so political reasons for Phoenix to succeed. We are looking good my friends. Previous EA’s used $300 copper as a metric.....;0)))

..looks awful. Gap fill down to 80p looks fairly certain.

......but we aren't there yet. Volume, volume, volume is needed so we can blast past 46p region, then we are off tot he races !!

I think it is also worth noting that with approx $1.4 billion in metal to extract over 10 years, say $140m per year. The $51m loan isn't going to take long to pay off.

Daman you really are a melodramatic drama queen...lol

The first port of call for any would be investor should be the Hardman & Co Pheonix Copper Ltd report by Paul Mylchreest. Likely cost of Empire mine construction is about $51m 80:20 debt to equity ratio. Loan via Orion Mine Finance with an offtake deal. PEA should clarify the economics. We are looking for a NPV £17 or greater. This will equate to an average future SP over 10 years of £6. DYOR or in Daman's case please at least do some research !