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From a man in the markets- We will see a large ‘sell the news ‘ gold rally emerge after FOMC on Wednesday with as many specs as possible wrong footed! In the interim the COT structure is as bullish as it can get! http://news.goldseek.com/COT/ Investors and traders in precious metals often pay attention to the Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report that is released each Friday at 3:30 pm, based upon the settlement data for Tuesday’s close. Since we view this information as relevant, we follow and report on the COT report each week. Since the COT report can be difficult to understand (and often misunderstood and misreported), we wanted to provide an introduction to it. The Significance of the COMEX Futures Market The futures market for COMEX gold is important, since the price of physical gold is closely tied to the futures market price. As a result, it is not necessarily the physical supply and demand for gold that sets the price; rather, this is done by the supply and demand for the digital gold derivative. The daily volume and open interest for the digital futures market dwarf those for the physical market. What is the COT Report? The COT report seeks to summarize the trading commitments of five different categories of futures traders. These categories include: the producer, the swap dealer, managed money, other reportable, and non-reportable. For some commodities (such as crude oil), the “producer” is indeed the producer of that commodity, and the “producer” category reports on what those producers sell or buy in the futures market to hedge their commodity price risk. In the case of gold, the “producers” are not gold miners; rather, they are commercial banks Some further explanations/ reading on COT https://seekingalpha.com/article/4102148-gold-cot-dummies https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/sentiment-trader-010520171 http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-04-29/How-to-Use-the-CoT-Report-in-Gold-Investing.html https://news.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/gold-trading-prices/

Walk like an Egyptian & Consider Grabbing A Glittering Interest in this Big Miner - Just in Case ome of the smarter minds in the big city keep telling us that gold will explode in value sooner or later. And yet the price of the yellow stuff is not exactly exploding. Never mind, if only as a hedge against shares in all other sectors, it makes sense to maintain an interest in gold. You could buy a gold bar or two and hide it under your bed. But the easiest way is to buy shares in a gold miner. Now trusting to companies who’s share value is based on their finding more gold, or indeed ANY gold, is extremely risky. Look at Sula Gold and Iron for example ( SULA). My holding in this lot rose by 150% rather quickly. Sadly, I topped up at this stage and when the share came crashing gown again, I find myself with a rather nasty paper loss. I say ‘paper loss’ because it seems clear to me that it prospects of finding more gold than it has so far is still rather good. But speculation in gold explorers is among the riskiest investments you could ever make, even though it can produce the biggest rewards. The wiser investor is better off providing a golden hedge to other possible losses by investing in a gold company that already produces loads of the stuff. I think the best bet in my portfolio is Centamin (CEY) This lot mines the glittery stuff in Egypt. And though the politics of that region are unstable, I find that mining and oil companies in ‘difficult’ countries are rarely troubled by that sort of thing. I usually find that their rulers, benign or otherwise, have no interest in cutting off revenue streams by obstructing foreign miners on their soil. Centamin shares have been up and down for a year or so. But before then they were worth a lot less. By choosing to buy Centamin shares you might be able to offset any nastiness caused in the rest of your portfolio. such unpleasantness could follow weakened world currencies, falling oil prices, Brexit, the Trump regime and the continuing crises in the Middle east. And that includes the current mess over Qatar. Now won't you please join me in the Punter's Return? Your shout. Malcolm Stacey

************* Share Tips of the year 2017: No 15 Buy Centamin says Malcolm Stacey By Malcolm Stacey | Thursday 29 December 2016 Gold prices are not as high as they might be, given the shakiness of the major currencies over this year. These currencies may be come even more unstable in 2017 - the dollar, euro and pound. Not to mention the Indian situation where poor people are being encouraged to use smart phones instead of cash, though numbers of them cannot read. (This is not to knock investment in Indian shares, though, as there are high hopes for that country’s economy these days). Any road up, with major currencies under attack, our minds turn naturally to the comparative safety of gold. Which brings me to my second tip for 2017. It is Centamin (CEY) a big producer of the yellow metal in the interesting land of Egypt. Its share price rose spectaculalry last year, but has now fallen back. Unfairly so I think. In November, the shares touched 164p. By mid December, they were as low as 114p. The bounce has already begun and today the shares are 138p. So still in bargain basement territory, in my humble view. And when a share becomes oversold, there is usually a bounce back which we can, if we buy early enough, take advantage of. I’ve been a holder for a long time, and though dividends have made the investment a sound one, I am slightly down on its capital value. But that situation should not last. Centamin's latest set of numbers, admittedly back in the late summer, showed a 12% increase in production over the first quarter of the year. It was up by nearly a third on 2015. EBITDA (profit before all the tax, interest and big non cash items) of $101.6 million was up 51% on the first three months of 2016. This was not just due to the increased price of gold, but also by improving efficiency and lowering costs. With Egypt, there is a worry, real or over-egged, about an unstable political situation. But in my humble experience, governments of volatile regions, are very anxious to maintain income-boosting local industries, rather than interfere with or curtail them. So for me, Egyptian politics are not a curb on investment in Centamin. If you, believe, as I do that gold prices will rise, as big currencies continue to fail, than Centamin seems as good an investment as any. It produces lots of gold and it pays a dividend.

Gold producers are well worth a look for anyone who is bullish on the metal itself, and offer some degree of leveraged play. One which would definitely be on my list to have a look at is Centamin Egypt (CEY) which is currently trading around 54p, and with a market cap of £620 million. The company has been blighted by problems ever since the ‘Arab Spring’ back in 2011 when it was badly hit by events in Egypt, and since then it has also seen gold prices tumble, as well as an ongoing court case. Opinions are mixed on the direction that gold will take from its current level of close to $1200, but a recent weakening in the dollar bodes well, if that weakness continues, given its strength in recent times. In the shorter term we’re looking for a possible break of that $1190 area with support around $1140-1150. Longer term, opinions are mixed on the direction it will take, with some of the most bullish predictions expecting it to double in price by 2030, thanks to increased demand in Asia! That seems a little too optimistic for me, but increased demand is expected from a number of areas, including from the launch of Apple’s new watch which comes in a gold version, and which it is predicted will be popular enough to have a material effect on gold demand, even going on the more conservative estimates. FTSE250 listed Centamin recently announced record production from its Sukari mine, at over 128,000 ounces for Q4 2014, an increase of 37% on the previous quarter. And it looks set to continue that trend with forecasts for 2015 at 420,000 ounces – compared to actual production of 377,261 ounces for 2014 – and with operating costs reducing to $700 per ounce. The gold processing plant at Sukari now has a capacity of 10Mta. Full year results up until the end of 2014 are due out tomorrow, but I’m not expecting any real surprise within those, certainly nothing overly negative. The previous set of financials for Q3 2014 showed EBITDA of $37.8 million and with cash and equivalents of around $140 million. The company has no debt and net assets of around $1.3 billion, plus it is continuing to further explore the Sukari area, with the likelihood of further reserve upgrades, and recently completed stage four of its expansion, which will add to production. In terms of the court case and risks associated with that, an individual is challenging the paperwork which saw the license converted from an exploration to an exploitation permit. The courts have requested further evidence from Centamin, which it says it has now provided, and it also has support within the government – the Ministry of Petroleum issued the licence, and the Minister has also launched an appeal in support of the company. The legal process in Egypt is often slow, but currently the company is able to carry on operations as normal. In terms of a play based purely on the price of gold, you won’t find anything that offers much more dire

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