Member Info for mrtibbles

Ton-fran-cen

Firstly may I say thank your your expertise in digging out and deciphering the important detail from within the Centamin reports,it is educating to say the least, I do hope that you may consider either contacting Cey via email or telephoning in on the next telephone conference call to raise some of these points.

It seems the Cenatmin are somewhat astute (tricksy)in informing investors of important production issues in such a way that the seriousness and potential damaging effect to actual mine output are somewhat unobvious especially to the untrained eye.

I didn't pay that much if any attention to page 5 in the updated guidance, had I done so and understood it then I may well have puled out my investment, but hindsight is a fine thing and I have certainly learnt a lesson.
.
I am afraid that it seems some of us long term investors may have become a little too trusting, perhaps even complacent and now we are paying the price whilst those on the top table are in line for bonus shares!

See below-Nov. 19, 2015 5:00 AM ET

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good

Thank you to Mizolgit for giving the date of the above article!

Sent to Cey PR & I R 14.06.2018 f

The Cey Management Board may also be interested in considering some suggestions from a fellow investor and friend..

Mr Tibbles you highlight some of the problems that Centamin are suffering,

However I want to highlight some possible solutions.

Firstly, if there was any complacency by management it has hopefully all gone now with the last three weeks share price fall and the drop out of the top 200 UK quoted companies.

The vast majority of investors want both capital appreciation for their shareholdings and a progressive dividend policy. It is about time that the Board made share price appreciation a core metric for share vesting and bonuses.

As it is we private investors take the risk buying shares with after tax income whereas the vast majority of Mr Pardey and Co's shares are awarded "gratis". In that sense we have much more skin and risk and pain than they do. I hope that this point has been grasped.

Market makers are not so important today. 96% of all trading is programming trading.

Their algos filter all news looking for positive or negative changes.

We lost 30% of the share price as the RNS was outside of normal reporting and contradicted ie a negative surprise to that of Q1 given 3 weeks earlier. Added to that analysts could cite the" same old news" as Centamin has nothing else to demonstrate progress.

One country, one mine, two court cases and 2 green field explorations are not news that one can keep repeating as unchanged and expect the share price to progress.

But the tin ear award went for the announcement that Korn Ferry would review management remuneration. I want management rewarded for problem solving and strategic development of our business.

Centamin PLC is competing for investor funds. I want to see our Board being proactive like similarly sized Kirkland Lake.

They now have 3 active mines in Ontario and strategic shareholding investments in 3 prospectors in Australia including Novo Resources. Is W.Africa a goer? If Centamin can't envisage a mine plan within a year we should be looking to invest the majority of the cash holding in a late stage developer in another safe jurisdiction or buy a shareholding strategic stake to harness the gold price rally before prices take off.

I hope the Board are constantly reviewing all options available especially with their Australian roots and contacts. Sukari is an ideal foundation for a major gold company.

Does the Board share my ambition?

Some feedback would be greatly appreciated by our Centamin investors group.

You will note that the The processing plant is supposed to have a capacity of 11-12mtpa – it is in fact processing in excess of that and has been for a number of quarters.

I understand that running at over capacity has increased output,

But what about maintenance on this vital equipment, if it is running for longer periods then it may not be possible to maintain the plant as often would be prudent and eventually this may well lead too unreliability or serious breakdown

So it is quite feasible then that a somewhat cavalier approach to plant operational limits and maintenance may have become custom and practice at Sukari and may well explain the second serous failing of the LHDR because it was being run in excess of it's manufacturers operational limits.

Let's hope that lessons have been learned and there will now be spare capacity in all areas of production rather than running plant over limits!

14 06 2018 re lost production for Q2.

In hindsight when I asked the question I should perhaps have referred to it as "Reduced production output"

Reply
Most people will know that it is common to subcontract underground mining – in Egypt there is zero underground mining in any mineral apart from at Sukari. The amount of spares, extra rigs, etc are managed by the contractor. This has been the case for the last 8 years with no serious issues, until this one. Lesson is certainly learnt.

It is wrong to suggest the gold has been “lost” – it has been scheduled into another quarter. The ore stockpiles have very little to do with the underground run of mine – all of it goes into the processing plant. The stockpiles are mainly low grade stockpiles, and almost all of this comes from the open pit – the new leach pad is indeed having some of the transitional zone material going to that pad.

The processing plant is supposed to have a capacity of 11-12mtpa – it is in fact processing in excess of that and has been for a number of quarters. This is very good news for future production, particularly when displacing open pit tonnes with underground tonnes. There is no shortage of ore to go through the processing plant – the key is of course grade, and the issue with the long hole rig has shown the importance of that.

The downgrade has been painful for all concerned – but production will be built up from this base. The company is generating cash, profits and dividends, with zero debt and a further 15-20 years of mine life left. Though shareholders have had some real pain from the latest issue, from a longer term perspective they have also reaped significant rewards from both capital and yield returns and can hope to do so for the next number of years as well.

Sadly mining is mining – there is rarely a seamless upward trajectory and this has been a blip rather than a crash.

On the 30.05.2018 I was informed that the new crusher was still undergoing commissioning tests, so hopefully this secondary may be either in the production process now or in the final stages of commissioning.

Very fair comment Sparkle, I think we have to accept that certain perks are part of that type of job.
But on the plus side it confirms that full production and possibly more may now be back on the agenda!,
So will I be right be right or hopelessly wrong on Monday?

the concerns raised regarding Josef share disposals last year

Thanks for the email. I have spoken with the Company regarding your concern.

Centamin, as a publicly listed company, operates in full compliance with FCA and Toronto Stock Exchange. Specifically with regards to Director/PDMR share dealing the Company strictly adheres to “close periods” as per the Market Abuse Regulation, restricting companies from dealing in shares for a specific period following a financial period end and market publication of an announcement. This provides complete transparency between the market and the Company as to the specific timeframes throughout the year that a Directors/PDMRs of any listed company can buy or sell shares in their stock.

In addition to our regulatory responsibility, Centamin has its own internal policy and procedures which need to be adhered to before any Director/PDMR is given sign off to buy or sell shares in the Company.

The Company looks forward to providing an update on Monday 9 July.

Firstly ton fre cen, I am not on the side lines, I have a very substantial investment in the company.

Whilst your information on grades is very informative, it is only part of the issue, you also need well run efficient plant and where feasible fail proof production methods to extract the ore, that includes adequate back up for essential plant!

If there is prior knowledge of potential difficulties (Strata & ore grade) then increased shifts and extra essential plant may help compensate for this to keep up the output or guidance

The drilling contractor is too blame they were dependant upon a a sole and heavily worked LHDR without sufficient back up or suitable spares.

The management have duty to the the company and the share holder to mitigate any risk that may have a negative effect on the companies performance or market cap , they failed to mitigate the risk Barminco were taking by depending on one very essential piece of plant in the production process and it failed causing major disruption to underground output.

Your grades were all he same when Andrew Pardey in the Q! production update announced the estimated output of 580.000 oz for the year.

So what changed in the next three weeks or so, the LHDR failed not once, but twice and the second time failed so badly that it wasn't possible to repair ii quickly due to spare parts being unavailable.

I agree the ore grades didn't help, but had there been more back up for essential plant then poorer transitional grades could have been in some way compensated for by at least keeping up to full production and not allowing the underground output to come to a stand still.

My money is in Centamin and as such I will continue to express my my opinions and try to help fellow share holders..

Perhaps one day we may welcome you on the forum as a share holder/

Re post from Mr Bond 0n 19 November 2015 a analyst predicted problems with mine production in 2018,so it is clear Joseph could also have been aware.

Anyone got the link to the above , was this analyst ahead of the game or just lucky?

Bullish positioning is now at levels last seen at the end of 2015 when gold briefly dipped below $1,050 after the market went into a net short position for only the second time since 2006, when government first started to collect the data.

The reduction in net longs has been the equivalent sale of 700 tonnes of gold that the market has absorbed during 2018.

http://www.mining.com/gold-price-cleared-for-rally-after-hedge-funds-dump-700-tonnes/

Yes and the stale COT report fails to capture a VERY large net short spec position with commercials net long against them.

what will be the outcome in the rigged casino, another financial crash worse than 200?!

For a long term investor why only three posts?

Also did Andrew Pardey not give a very upbeat outlook during the 2018 Q! production outlook predicting 580.000 oz?

Well said Tiger, i would much prefer that Josef had stayed, he is a very decent chap of great integrity who would never do anything underhand in my opinion.

Josef not only understands just how to play the Egyptian situation he is also highly respected by the Egyptian government and it's people.

I hardly think that Josef had inside information last year when he sold shares that the LHDR was going to break down in Q2 2018 without sufficient spares or back up.
Although along with the rest of the Centamin board he should have been more active in mitigating the risk to production by better oversight of Barminco.
So whilst he may have to accept some blame regarding the lost production in Q2 at the Sukari operation he appears to be a man of great integrity.in other respects.
Like most other share holders I am not at all pleased about this his blip (balls up) but I am confident that production will now continue to improve and hopefully soon exceed expectations.
So lets see what is announced at the next Monday 9th July.

.
.

How is one post explaining why ETF'S may be on borrowed time ramping?
It is information that is relevant to Centamin share holders and the POG .
If ETF trading in paper is curtailed that can only be good for the gold price and for Centamin share holders,
What a shame if all this trading in paper is brought to an end, oh dear what will the those that spoof the markets do if they have to back up their trades with real bullion?

Platinum Cuts 5% Bounce from 'Tocom Dump' as GLD Gold ETF Shrinks Again

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

ETF's are on borrowed time anyway!

Soon they won't be able to compete.due to the inescapable counterparty risk as well as a cost to hold and no chance of taking delivery.

Kinesis provides the inverse!.

The ETF business model will be broken by Kinesis.!

With more than 30 years’ experience in the local market, we are also the go-to firm for Dispute Resolution, Intellectual Property and IT & Communications. Our Egypt lawyers have deep knowledge of the local legal, business, social and cultural environment, and work closely with colleagues across all of our offices to help clients navigate the intricacies of Egypt’s regulatory environment and achieve their global objectives.

This firm should have walked this case by now?
https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/locations/emea/egypt

https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/locations/emea/egypt

Good Afternoon Alex,

I understand that Centamin employ Baker McKenzie legal team in Cairo to act on behalf of Centamin in the court case which remains in limbo after six years, I appreciate that share holders have been told that legal proceedings can be lengthy in Egypt, rather an understatement I fear!

Especially so considering the number of years(over half a decade) this case consisting of lies and innuendo made by a now convicted criminal has been kicked down the road by various members of the judiciary, most probably because none of them wanted to stick their head above the parapet and make a judgment for fear it may come back to haunt them.

So is it not time it not time for some effort on the part of the Centamin legal team to make a plea for some common sense and fairness to be brought into the proceedings especially in view of what the Centamin partnership with EMRA is contributing to the Egyptian economy and its people.

Exceeding 500k oz has been confirmed by Mr. Youssef El-Raghy in this media report on Monday 26th Dec 2016

http://www.almalnews.com/Pages/StoryDetails.aspx?ID=316275

Mr. Youssef El-Raghy:
-We aimed to achieve 470k oz this year, but the company is finishing 2016 with production in excess of 500k oz.
-Centamin is the only international company working in Egypt. The company is willing to expand its investment in Egypt and acquire new areas if the mining law changed. The company will not take part in any new auctions under the current mining law.
-The company has so far paid $47 million as advance profits. There is a scheduled meeting soon with EMRA for the final settlement of the accounts.

http://www.shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?cdate=26122016&id=669d51ff-989f-468d-bba4-a6b97a954572

In the mean time, EMRA delayed the auctions till Q1 2017, The announced reason was “To obtain the necessary permissions”.

(I heard from some who was in a meeting with the petroleum minister yesterday that the petroleum minister stated that he was aware that the current mining law was deterring investors and he was going to try to get it changed).

Opinion on the above from our old legal friend Sinnerthesaint

This is potentially very interesting. I remember enquiring what it would mean if AlFakharany were convicted in his earlier (political) case.

One of the answers someone then gave me was that it wouldn't affect the CEY/EMRA case because it was unrelated and didn't have something to question his integrity (as an example he wasn't getting convicted for fraud).

Now this (with evidence) is exactly THAT. His integrity is on the line... and (morally but efficient in court cases) him accusing someone else of the same (before he has spent his own sentence - i.e. reformed). Morally (perhaps less efficient in court but much more efficient politically) would be hypocrisy.

It potentially affects the CEY court-case in many ways.

1. The possible outcome itself.
2. The continuation of the appeal
3. The possibility of AlFakharany dropping the case
4. The Interior ministry looking into injunctions
5. The length of time for the case to go on
6. The little 'public' support he enjoyed will probably vanish quickly

So why haven't the Centamin legal team in Cairo been a bit more proactive on this?

Alfakharany was arrested while getting paid the first instalment of the bribery (1,25 millions).

http://www.elfagr.org/1857087

http://www.el-balad.com/1694329?bar=1

http://www.masress.com/youm7/2337002

http://www.marsadmasry.com/news/28790

Public Funds Investigators at the Interior Ministry confirmed that they have arrested Hamdy Alfakharany tonight and they have started questioning him.
He is accused of requesting 5 million Egyptian pounds as a bribery to withdraw a court case he had filed earlier to recover the land of the Nile Cotton company.
The interior ministry technical department managed to record - audio and video - Alfakharany while requesting the bribery. All telephone calls between Alfakharany and the relevant parties were recorded.
Alfakharany was arrested while getting paid the first instalment of the bribery (1,25 millions).
Investigations also showed that Alfakharany committed fraud with the papers of Madinaty case.

however long it takes?
I wonder how long , 6 years passed already, so it may be a further decade or more perhaps past the life expectancy of Sukari the way things are going!
Annoying is not the term I would use , I think absolutely ridiculous is more appropriate especially considering that the court has already stated that their is no evidence of any wrong doing by Centamin and this
Mon 07/09/2015 11:26
One of the analysts in London has picked up on the development in Cairo – GMP Securities issued the following this morning:


Centamin – CEY LN – thorn removed with arrest of main opponent to Sukari
• As operations continue their smooth progress and the company moves towards 500k oz for 2015, enabling the company to recently raise its dividend to a healthy ~3.7%, the story looks in good health.
• But one issue which has continued to hold back the company over recent years has been the blight of the court cases it has faced in Egypt, spear-headed by one particular individual (Hamdy Fakharany). So it is especially comforting to see management’s long-stated view (that this individual was only out for personal gain and they would not bow to his demands) corroborated by the fact that he has been arrested after being caught attempting to bribe a company facing a similar legal situation to CEY.
• He had sought payment from CEY in order for their court troubles to “disappear” which the company had consistently ignored – and that tactic looks like it will now pay off. Clearly it won’t be overnight progress, but as we have long-stated, the court cases facing the company have not been brought by the State, but rather an individual with an agenda. Now that this individual is likely removed, the company is in a solid position to continue unimpeded its strong operational progress.
• Remains my top pick of the growing, established lower cost producers and with a healthy dividend yield on top, it screens extremely well versus all peers.