Member Info for mrtibbles

My kindest regards to you and your family!

which began with steel and aluminium tariffs, may end up having wider economic fallout. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/13/trade-war-brexit-economic-effects-tariffs

As with Brexit, the economic effects of uncertainty over tariffs will take time to appear
Fri 13 Jul 2018 10.16 BST

Some things are best not said in the public domain,n as one never know who reads them on the web, specially those who are employed to distort the truth or honest opinion.
It is a great pity that our old friend sinnerthesiant decided either to move on or not post any more, he seemed to feel that not enough was being done to resolve the court case.

Note on the Centamin website the role of Youssef El-Raghy Designation : General Manager – Egyptian Operations
Designation Time Period : Since January 2010
As an officer graduate of the Egyptian Police Academy, Youssef El-Raghy held senior management roles within the Egyptian Police force for a period in excess of ten years, having attained the rank of captain, prior to joining Centamin.
Mr El-Raghy has extensive contacts within the government and industry and maintains excellent working relationships with all of the Company's stakeholders within Egypt.

So no mining qualifications so I suppose he can plead some ignorance as to why the LHDR was being worked outside reasonable limits with no back up and he may not have known or understood the implications of the lower ore grades reported in 2015, so he didn't mention that in the media report of March 2018 but instead went along with The Sukari Gold Mining Company targets producing around 560,000 ounces of gold in 2018,,

But never the less,a senior manager/director drawing a big salary and benefits for his other local government knowledge,expertise and diplomacy skills, although he does not appear to be very successful in negotiating with all his contacts to help move along the court case which has been stuck in limbo for six years.

Especially when considering the extensive media coverage
EMRA takes $6.2M on profit account from Sukari Mine a coverage of how much profit is drawing out of the agreement https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/45628/EMRA-takes-6-2M-on-profit-account-from-Sukari-Mine
EMRA takes $195.1M on profit account from Sukari mine
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/50539/EMRA-takes-195-1M-on-profit-account-from-Sukari-mine

I wonder if any other share holders are of the same opinion?

I am very disappointed and feel that we have been deceived by sharp practice!
I should say that way the board have behaved is very much like bankers, taking us for plebs, unfortunately some of us fell for it!
I too have my suspicions about some on this board who are here for the reasons Mr Bond hinted at, it is common practice these days my old broker friend just told me!
If you decide to go to the regulator Mr Bond the you have my support I will do whatever I can to help!

I have since done some research into the report of 2015 and all the problems that production is suffering now were flagged up in 2015.

What can I say ,except thank you to Mr Bond for making us aware as the whole situation seems very suspicious as things stand at present.

Over to you Mr Bond

Sorry my last post wasn't spell checked or finished, so I continue here.
last year I asked Buchanon PR why was Josef disposing of some many shares and they didn't really appear to know why Mr Josef El-Raghy, Chairman of the Company, disposed of 12,595,714 ordinary shares in the Company between 26 May 2016 and 31 May 2016 at an average price of 0.98 pence per share. The notification relates to Nordana Pty Ltd, a fund connected to Mr Josef El-Raghy. The transactions occurred on the London Stock Exchange.Morning Bobby,
QIs this anything to worry about being so close to the next court case, especially considering who is disposing of these shares?
A.
No - the disposal of shares was the first time the founding family have sold equity. As part of a big company the timing was appropriate though founders selling is always difficult to message! They remain very committed to the firm - indeed Josef El Raghy is very involved in the running of the business as Chairman.
The case remains strongly in favour of the Government
.Mr Josef El-Raghy, Chairman of the Company, disposed of 5,000,000 ordinary shares in the Company between 8 June 2016 and 10 June 2016 at an average price of £1.11 per share. The notification relates to Nordana Pty Ltd, a fund connected to Mr Josef El-Raghy. The transactions occurred on the London Stock Exchange.
05/07/2018
Q To Alex Cey IR Thurs 05 07 2018

Most Centamin share holders are very sad that Josef El-Raghy is to step down this year, not only because of his professional managerial expertise but also because of his deep understanding of the Egyptian situation.

However I am concerned about a rumour that Josef sold out a large position of his shares last year because he had prior knowledge (inside information) of the mine strata and that it was flagged up by an analyst in Nov 2015 that problems would occur in 2018
If these people are sure of their evidence/suspicions regarding Josef using insider information then should they not report their concerns/accusations to the appropriate regulator?
This question was answered very quickly by Buchanon PR

Thanks for the email. I have spoken with the Company regarding your concern.

Centamin, as a publicly listed company, operates in full compliance with FCA and Toronto Stock Exchange. Specifically with regards to Director/PDMR share dealing the Company strictly adheres to “close periods” as per the Market Abuse Regulation, restricting companies from dealing in shares for a specific period following a financial period end and market publication of an announcement. This provides complete transparency between the market and the Company as to the specific timeframes throughout the year that a Directors/PDMRs of any listed company can buy or sell shares in their stock.
In addition to our regulatory responsibility, Centamin has its own internal policy and procedures which need to be adhered to before any Director/PDMR is given sign off to buy or sell shares in the C

Mr Bond,
As you know I have been trying to get some answers from Centamin on various issues, initially Alexandrea Carse was most helpful and then went totally silent after I asked questions raised by some on here , I suspect she has been leaned on.
I put questions to for presentation to the board ,they were ignored and only after I complained to Buchaanon complaining that iretail investors could'nt get answers to their question disd I gaet a replty suggesting t that I copy them in.
When you first brought up your suspicions concerning the share dispaoal by Josef I thought that can't b right he seems a decent cahp so I asked the question of Buchan PR

I think you have missed the point, our management may give back big divi but they have messed up big time and they need to get off there butts and sort them out1
The LHDR r was run to breaking point with no back up !
They were aware of the poor ore grade before 2015 and they skirted around this issue until recently.
The divi isn't guaranteed certainly not if they lose the court case, that needs sorting!
They are not answering perfectly reasonable questions from share holders, why not?
True we have receive reasonable dividends the value of which has been completely wiped out by thee managements failings resulting in the share price drop!
The only thank you I give the board at present is boot up the ar(se down to the local job centre

Quite So downhill, quite so, that is the role and duty of a responsible share holder!

fair comments Rebess,

You have often said something doesn't ring right here,I think recent events have shown that to some extent the Centamin management have been creating an illusion to everyone on the outside.

Centamin would have know about the grade problems they are encountering now before 2015, but have managed to put a gloss on their results for another 18 months or so, mostly by mining less waste than planned and high-grading the open pit

Quite a strategy,.gives EMRA the impression that Sukari is going to a real profit machine spitting out record amounts of gold relatively easily for the future and encourages punters (investors) to pile in, all about window dressing,a sort of live now let the share holders pay later!

In hindsight all this is obvious now that whilst the board were bragging about running the plant at over capacity that included the good old over worked LHDR because it packed up not once, but twice and as we know there wasn't contingency plan or even the right spare parts on site

Andrew Pardey claims they are miners and not bankers, really, but in reality the directors have been setting production targets they knew the could reach using the questionable production tactics above and then receiving their bonus shares by the bucket load!

By comparison the share holders have been chucked a reasonable dividend , but no more than they wound have received by investing the same amount in any of the big div payers in the ftse .without the massive fluctuation in share price and the risk of a court case hanging over the concession licence that could go on for decades unless our directors do something!

I have always been of the opinion in the past that the retail investors were valued by Centamin and as many of you know I tried to develop a good relationship with IR & PR so that both parties would be better informed.

However after recent chickens coming home to roost at Sukari it seems that our management are not as competent and trustworthy as they would like us to believe and they certainly don't want to answer our awkward questions any more , but instead will treat us like mushrooms and feed us the company PR line via Buchanon!

To be fair I must thank Mr Bond for helping to open my eyes , if it were not for him then I wouldn't have made the enquires and discoveries that I have over recent days, it has certainly made me realise that our management is not the one I thought it was and drastic improvements are needed!

Hi Sweaty Betty,
I was told by IR that the LHDR breakdown cost about a months production 65% production grade 35%development grade.

Good luck getting some info I think we are now being regarded as mushrooms that should be kept in the dark!

his father smelt of elderberries!!

He seems to forget it is the US policy towards Iran the pushed up the oil prices and that the Fed cartel manipulating the markets to make American rich at the expense of the rest of the world!

Germany should tell Trump " I fart in your general direction!!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWBUl7oT9sA

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-prices-071120183

Fair comment MrBond ,I wondered when someone would ask this.
I have a friend who works in a service supply industry which crosses over into mining and so he hears quire a lot off the record!

At a recent conference meeting in Egypt he said a couple of the delegates were discussing how disappointed some in very high places are with the recent reduced Sukari production guidance , especially the fact that profit share this year is not going to be as much as they had believed it would be.

I hope that this situation is not used by those that want to point a finger and accuse the foreign companies of not delivering on promises, something we don't need at this stage of play.

point noted ton fran sen

But you arrive at your conclusion on the information provided by the management.

I still maintain that the LHDR breaking down twice, the second time so badly that it had to be withdrawn for an extended period had a serious impact on underground production, had this not happened then the effects of the low ore grades in the overground pit would not have been so bad on overall guidance.
I also remain of the view that the management failed in their professional responsibility to mitigate risk to production flow by allowing the drilling contractor to depend on one LHDT without adequate back up and spares.
This drilling contractor is supposed to mitigate production risk,they failed!
I appreciate all your efforts in analysis and your efforts to defend Barminco are noted, but at the end of the day they let the job down seriously by taking unnecessary chances.

very interesting analysis of analyse quarterly performance., thank you

I was told that thorough analysts also look for trends that spell upside or downside in future?

Without them having looked at the latest performance in detail, a reliable source pointed out that management is consistently falling short of waste stripping against plan and that their promised higher open pit feed grade never materialises.,it seems management overestimate reserve grade/underestimate dilution.

Ariana Resources AAU. RNS out this morning.
Could thus be a new Hot Marden but already producing.

This company is TINY. It has a 50% stake in a mine with a target to produce 20,000 oz per annum for a very limited life of mine. It means that it has a beneficial interest in a mine with 10,000 oz per annum production (target!). The overheads of this listed company will gobble up a lot of any free cash flow.

At 31 December it had 0.8 million pounds in cash and during that year the operation was 2.7 million pounds cash negative.

“Investments" were an inflow because of the sale of assets.

The company does not publish quarterly financial results, which make it impossible to monitor how it does financially at regular intervals.

In other words, does it make net free cash flow when it produces 7,171 oz per quarter?

At the current share price market cap. is 15.8 million pounds.

It seems as though this company is skating on such thin ice that seems far too risky .

Without having looked at the details (for that you need need the technical report), the capital expenditure looks light and the suggested mining cost of US$4.59/t processed converts to US$1.70/t mined. .

Mining cost in Africa are +US$3/t mined, recently confirmed by a director of SRK after they had done a benchmarking study.

Companies and their “Independent Technical Advisor's” will always squeeze the assumptions to present as positive a picture as possible.

Until the full technical report is available detailing the dimensions of the deposit, its characteristics, etcthese are not not exactly known at this stage .

For example, maybe they do not need to drill and blast, which would greatly reduce mining cost.

Now the impression thus far is that assumptions are too optimistic, but of course that may be wrong.

In 45 days they must have posted the study on Sedar and then it can be reviewed properly.

Does this remind you of another mining company in some ways?

[1] Resolution Foundation: Public and family finances squeezes extended well into the 2020s by grim Budget forecasts:
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/press-releases/public-and-family-finances-squeezes-extended-well-into-the-2020s-by-grim-budget-forecasts/
[2] The Guardian:
Banks pay out £166bn over six years: a history of banking misdeeds and fines
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/12/banks-fined-200bn-six-years-history-banking-penalties-libor-forex
UK banks could face new multibillion-pound claims after PPI ruling:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/02/uk-banks-could-face-new-multibillion-pound-claims-after-ppi-ruling
MPs publish full unredacted report into RBS small business scandal:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/20/mps-publish-full-unredacted-report-into-rbs-small-business-scandal
[3] Bloomberg: 10 Years After Lehman, Four Big Risks:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-03/lehman-collapse-10-years-later-four-major-risks
Business Insider UK: Central bankers are like ‘pyromaniac firefighters’ and they are lighting another blaze:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/daniel-lacalle-central-bankers-pyromaniac-firefighters-2018-5?r=US&IR=T
The Financial Times: John Vickers warns of ‘dangerously high’ levels of bank leverage:
https://www.ft.com/content/f4a1e84e-4df5-11e8-97e4-13afc22d86d4#myft:my-news:page

Also sent to Centamin
Sent: 31 May 2018 15:48
Subject: Shareholder Rights Directive. SRD II
Dear Andrew,
Individual shareholder rights have been eroded, particularly by the nominee account mechanism and the way that platforms and brokers fail to provide a good service to individual investors. Often, individual investors are not informed when a general meeting is going to happen, and do not receive circulars, voting forms and annual reports. And many platforms make it difficult and expensive for investors to get this information.
By having shares registered in nominee accounts, rather than in shareholders own names, they are at risk in the event of a broker insolvency and subject to an FSCS compensation limit of £50,000.

Any loss above this is not covered. The Beaufort Scandal has highlighted the way administrators can dip into investors' funds to pay their costs and fees first. Some Beaufort investors may be facing a loss of up to 40%.

Help may be at hand in the form of the Shareholder Rights Directive. SRD II has a clear intent that the end investor should be identified on the company register, including their email address, and should be entitled to receive company information and annual reports.

As my MP could you please ask Greg Clark, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to implement the Shareholder Rights Directive's clear intent that the end investor should be identified on the company register.

This should include their email address, and they should be entitled to receive company information and annual reports, and to vote at company general meetings. See https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/initiatives/ares-2018-1944240_en for details.

The UK law is at odds with the EU Directive. UK law defines a shareholder as the nominee (when shares are held in a nominee account) and not the end investor (ie. the individual investor like you or me). Note that the accounts offered by most UK brokerages and platforms place the account holders shares in a nominee account.
At present, this is mandatory for ISAs and SIPPs. The UK law must be changed.

However, to date, the UK Government and BEIS has been resistant to changing the UK legislation so as to meet the intent of the EU Directive.

We now have a once in a decade opportunity to get this problem resolved.

Your help in making this happen would be most appreciated.

Yours sincerely

Thank you Mr Bond.
I wondered where the detail are to be found showing which institutional investors?

I know that some would like to invest but cant because of the court case, it must depend on their individual constitutions?