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Digesting the jobs report
The new week is starting with some familiar investing trends as cyclicals look poised to notch modest gains this morning with tech on the back foot. Dow futures are ahead by 0.3%, while contracts linked to the Nasdaq are off by 0.3% and the S&P 500 is hugging the flatline. The bet, known as the the reflation trade, would see stocks more sensitive to the economic cycle outperform their peers as businesses reopen following the coronavirus pandemic.

Not everything is rosy on the economic front. Data on Friday showed that U.S. jobs rose by 266,000 in April, trailing estimates for a one million jump, marking a huge miss by economists and raising questions over what data they're using. Despite the blunder, the news could be good for equities, as it may suggest the Fed may hold its accommodative stance for longer. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen weighed in by saying the report "underscores the long-haul climb back to recovery, but still represents continued progress."

Analyst commentary: "We would not read too much into any one jobs report, and continue to think the labor market remains on track and will be more than enough to underpin consumer confidence and consumption," Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana declared. He thinks cyclical stocks will continue to be favored over defensive shares, and jobs growth still likely to accelerate in the months ahead.

Prices on the rise: Commodities are getting another dose of supercycle today, with gasoline and crude oil rising after a cyberattack forced the closure of the East Coast Colonial Pipeline. Iron ore futures and copper also jumped to fresh records, before a CPI report this week that is forecast to show U.S. prices rising further in April. Meanwhile, a slew of Fed speakers will discuss the recent price trends this week, as well as how inflation could affect monetary policy and economic growth.

Highlights from Brokers note -
May 10, 2021
Centamin plc
Upgrading to Outperform
Our view: With operational expectations reset, some potential positive
catalysts from Egyptian concessions and the West Africa portfolio review,
and with Centamin trading sub 0.84x NAV at spot gold we think risk reward
is now skewed to the upside, in particular if gold can hold its recent gains.
Upgrade to Outperform.
Key points:
Still hard work but risk reward now skewed to the upside
Centamin's challenging 2020 and guidance reset was the culmination
of many years of the operation being run for the short-term. New
management now looks well on track to proving out a brighter long-term
future for Sukari. Q1's better than expected production, albeit only one
quarter of many which would be needed to prove out the strategy, was a
positive sign. Although there are likely to be further bumps on the road,
the potential of Sukari remains intact and we think we are now past the
worst of the news flow.
This year could be augmented by two potential catalysts. First, the group
has won a recent Egyptian bid round. Details remain scarce, however, with
grades constrained in the open pit and the underground yet to show its
true potential, a material near-mine satellite discovery could reshape the
production profile and add potential for expansions. We expect to hear
more details in the coming weeks. Secondly, Centamin's adventures in West
Africa have taken away focus from the key Sukari mine. We think a review
could monetise the current exploration portfolio, and this, added to the
$331m of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet, could potentially
drive future buybacks or more optimal usage of the balance sheet, further
enhancing value.
Everything else is going up, and so is gold, so why not gold stocks?
In recent weeks, signs of inflation pushing through the wider economy,
especially from a diverse suite of commodities, appears to be picking
up momentum. With consumer balance sheets and corporate profits
providing plenty of room to pass on price and wage increases, and limited
signs of excess liquidity being removed, we think that gold's optionality
here remains elevated. Centamin is trading on 0.84x spot P/NAV and 4.4x
consensus EV/EBITDA (c. 10% below 5 year average but in theory should
trade at a higher multiples through this compressed profitability phase).
We see potential that gold's recent revival could push multiples higher
again, as we saw in 2020. We move our target multiple to 1.3x our RBC
base case NAV and 6.0x EV/EBITDA (from 1.1 and 5.0x prev). This moves
our price target to 140p from 120p and we move our recommendation to
Outperform from Sector Perform.

Productivity should increase over the next year as will the POG due to the central banks reckless money printing and also helped by the influences of Basel 3 .
We can also look forward to some updates on West Africa and possibly the more detailed announcement on the awarded Egyptian concession's.(I hear EMRA wants to make a big thing of this announcement)
Also over the next year some considerable reduction on the AISC , due to easier main pit access and solar coming on stream .

Quite so Mr Bond & Drunkinit,
Having shares held RBS & Lloyd's because I thought banks could be trusted, after 2008 all I can say is never again, buyer beware!
Interesting to look back on this report and then consider what's happening at the present!

A James Bond-style lair was duly created, featuring a vast triangular table bolted to the floor with a large carpeted space in the middle.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/fred-goodwin-obsessed-about-carpets-while-rbs-burned-1538923
Goodwin then decided, once the carpet had been laid in 2005, that he would rather the board members had a giant RBS logo on the floor in the middle of the triangle to look at while they deliberated on the bank’s extraordinary growth.

Pre 2008 crash
https://www.investors.rbs.com/~/media/Files/R/RBS-IR-V2/Archived/13-june-06-trading-statement-transcript.pdf
Sir Fred Goodwin: Ok, well thanks everyone for calling in. I think we covered a pretty good range of
topics there. If any of you have got any other queries as the day unfolds or as the rest of the
week unfolds, feel free to contact us and we’ll try and answer them. It is, I know, it’s a slightly
inherently unsatisfactory process to be putting out a small series of words and trying to
extrapolate from that, as to what the Group’s performance is but the messages are very clear,
strong, we're performing well during the early parts of 2006, all the metrics are fine and we expect
to meet expectations, so there’s no hidden messages, surprises or secrets in here. So thanks
to everyone for calling in.

PAGE 22 !!
Edward Firth: Hi. Just a quick question back on weighted risk assets; just two points; firstly could you
just confirm the net weighted risk asset benefit, if you like, from the securitisation programmes in
the first half. And I guess, second question, under Basel II what would be the treatment of these,
I guess these loan books under Basel II, will they remain off balance sheet or will they come back
on?
Sir Fred Goodwin: I’ll answer the second part and if Guy knows that, I don’t have a figure in my mind
for the first part, I don’t know if he does. Clearly what’s going on at the moment is being in done
in full anticipation of Basel II, Ed, so there’s no point in having something go off the balance sheet
only to bring it back on again.
Edward Firth: Sure.
Guy Whittaker: The first part of your question, Ed: we have securitised £4.7 billion worth of mortgages,
which are at 50% risk weighted asset and then £3.5 billion of corporate lending book through a
synthetic securitisation CLO.

Thanks Mr Bond ,
Great interview with Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert (lumber prices add $36000 to the price of a new house in the US in 2021!)
The number of jobs created in America declined by 74,000 to 153,439 in August. A horrible number, far below expectations. The jobless rate rose to 4.4 and hourly earnings missed increasing only 2.5 percent year-over-year. Average hours worked also declined, seeing as weekly wages followed suit. Yet, central bank manipulated stocks are surging, on the terrible economic news, in anticipation of more global central bank easing. News and economic data are irrelevant in our “rigged” system as market participants eagerly line up like heroin addicts awaiting another federal reserve fix!
http://planetponzi.com/blog/bureau-of-labor-statistics-understanding-the-swamp%E2%80%99s-unemployment-numbers

Still it seems things are underway now with the solar plant and it won't be too long before it will be helping to reduce AISC at Sukari.

Been using this search engine for a couple of years both can be installed on Firefox, Bing, Vivaldi even Google web browsers.

Founded in 2008, DuckDuckGo claims to not store personal information of its users, ever.
“Our privacy policy is simple: we don’t collect or share any of your personal information,” the website’s homepage says below the main search field.
https://www.searchenginejournal.com/google-vs-duckduckgo/301997/#close

https://duckduckgo.com

Hi Nunquam,
Under the new management Centamin should do very well and as a result of Basel 3 and later 4 gold will reach a much more realistic price, so good luck with your building project & your retirement!

Yes indeed, thank you Cowichan!

A brave statement indeed, let's hope he is right and assuming of course that another variant doesn't mutate, can he guarantee this, I very much doubt it.
Experts can all to often be biased for whatever reason, or be caught out by the unexpected as we all know, how many times was Andrew Pardey caught out by the unexpected!
The UK and the lot of the ordinary people have been changed forever in many ways by the pandemic, the effects of which will become more apparent as time goes on, the present government has deceived and lied to the people on a previously unprecedented scale whilst denying them their civil liberties using enforcement agencies and by using state surveillance methods (Apps,CCTV).
The present government will use the pandemic as an an excuse not to provide to the people what they have paid their taxes for in the past and to increase the peoples taxes for the future in order to try and gloss over their failed corrupt policies and lies.

"The one great principle of English law is to make business for itself!"

"We lawyers are always curious, always inquisitive, always picking up odds and ends for our patchwork minds, since there is no knowing when and where they may fit into some corner."

"Keep out of Chancery. It's being ground to bits in a slow mill; it's being roasted at a slow fire; it's being stung to death by single bees; it's being drowned by drops; it's going mad by grains."

"Houses were knocked down; streets broken through and stopped; deep pits and trenches dug in the ground; enormous heaps of earth and clay thrown up; buildings that were undermined and shaking, propped by great beams of wood. In short, the yet unfinished and unopened Railroad was in progress."

"My meaning is, that no man can expect his children to respect what he degrades."

"Lawyers hold that there are two kinds of particularly bad witnesses--a reluctant witness, and a too-willing witness."

"Veels vithin veels, a prison in a prison."

Charles Dickens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFWna9qBvPk
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire offers a short-term outlook for gold and silver, and explains this week’s long-awaited positive price movement in the precious metals markets.
The long-time wholesaler breaks down the LBMA’s latest, desperate attempt to lobby for an exemption from Basel III. As implementation day fast approaches, Andrew Maguire reports on collusion between the LMBA and CME, in a bid to buy time to unwind massive interconnected unallocated positions.
A week on from the silver raid, the precious metals expert sends out his appreciation to the legions of silver stackers worldwide, who bought up as much as physical silver as they could afford on May 1st.

01:25? What’s next for gold and silver short term?
07:36? Volatility explained! Dips will be bought.
12:20? EFP & ETFs explained
17:00? CME and LBMA scramble to buy extra time before Basel III
21:53? CME left red-faced
31:32? Breakdown of LBMA’s desperate lobby attempts
38:00? CME advisory confirms the LBMA ring-fencing attempts backfiring
43:42? Silverback raid rattles paper markets.

So how would today's homebuyers cope with the interest rates of 12% we had to cope with 25 years back?
This is the party that claims to be more financially competent!
Sky World News 16th September 1992 Sterling crisis in ERM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGuKJT15SV8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9za9-T7vrM

Problem is that VAT and PAYE hits the ordinary people the hardest, whilst the richest have ways of claiming it back or avoiding paying their fair share such as Amazon!
Think on this
The equivalent of one nurse’s annual salary is lost to a tax haven every second!

Countries are losing a total of over $427 billion in tax each year to international corporate tax abuse and private tax evasion, costing countries altogether the equivalent of nearly 34 million nurses’ annual salaries every year – or one nurse’s annual salary every second.1 As pandemic-fatigued countries around the world struggle to cope with second and third waves of coronavirus, a ground-breaking study published today reveals for the first time how much public funding each country loses to global tax abuse and identifies the countries most responsible for others’ losses. In a series of joint national and regional launch events around the world, economists, unions and campaigners are urging governments to immediately enact long-delayed tax reform measures in order to clamp down on global tax abuse and reverse the inequalities and hardships exacerbated by tax losses.2
https://www.taxjustice.net/2020/11/20/427bn-lost-to-tax-havens-every-year-landmark-study-reveals-countries-losses-and-worst-offenders/
https://www.taxjustice.net/videos/

Fair comment's Mr Gnome,
https://goldseek.com/article/copper-shortage-narrative-goes-mainstream

Excellent new's Iglu, it's a form of justice when shorter's get their ar*ses roasted, or as Ppldark's Jud Paynter would say about shorting "Taint right, taint fair, taint fit, taint proper!,"

Still interesting there may be people on here who were considering BA stock and it also shows that things are still quite a way from returning to what was normal pre pandemic.

Hi Drinkinfti,
The article that referred to them as fools was from Money Week.
Excellent and very interesting summing up,I agree, not fools just a bunch of crooks, but they have all the levers as you rightly point out.
As a matter of interest I don't hold any bitcoin or intend to.

Now organisations are following the same model. With DAOs, like bitcoin, there is no central body to close down or tax. These organisations operate on distributed blockchain networks with no company HQ, no formal organisation at the centre, no base in any jurisdiction and no central point of failure.
Their currencies are their own issued tokens; digital, existing outside fiat economies. Their platforms and businesses will be automated by code, often written on an open-source basis.
Governments are trying to impose taxes, censorship and other rules on the likes of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Uber and AirBnB. How will they do that to the social network, the video-, ride- or flat-sharing platform is decentralised?
Many of the often highly libertarian developers in the blockchain space have even stated that their intention with DAOs is to replace the state altogether. If they deprive it of essential tax revenue, they’ll go a long way to doing that.
There are many reasons tech stocks have been able to grow at the phenomenal rate they have since the late 1990s.
One has been the incredible product or service they have been able to offer – Google’s search engine, Apple’s phones and computers, Amazon’s shopping and delivery.
Another has been the sheer scalability of digital tech – Google can make a change to its search engine and billions benefit; a brilliant app need only be uploaded once, but it can be downloaded billions of times.
But also, with valuations based as much on users as on profits, tech companies have not been held back by the heavy taxes imposed on the physical economy. Not having to leak capital to the tax man, means they can reinvest in their own companies, develop quicker and better products and then offer them to customers cheaper.
Well, these same three factors all apply to DAOs, only on steroids. DAOs are going to be huge.
Picking out individual opportunities is a lottery. If this were the dotcom boom, we would be in about 1997. We haven’t even had the first proper hype cycle yet. Google and Facebook haven’t even been invented, and Amazon is still only selling books...

Dominic Frisby Money Week
When it comes to taxes, the tech giants – Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple et al – have for over a decade now made Western governments look like fools.
Heck, even Starbucks has.
Their globalised business models, with IP here, trademarks there, profits somewhere else, have meant that they can pretty much pay as little or as much tax as they see fit, and there is not a lot governments have been able to do about it.
Tax systems, bound by national borders and designed around the physical economy, have been exposed for the antiquated megaliths they are. Local individuals and companies have been burdened with heavy taxes so that governments can subsidize their out-of-control spending. The globalised digital behemoths on the other hand have got away almost scot free.
Well, if you thought governments were unprepared for the disruption brought to their revenue models by the tech giants of the 2000s and 2010s, wait till you see how unprepared they are for “decentralised autonomous organisations”, aka DAOs.
I’ll bet you less than 5% of government ministers even know what a DAO is. Nevertheless, the 2020s will be the decade of the DAO.
When “Satoshi Nakamoto” designed bitcoin, one of his key aims was to create a money system that had no central point of failure. Previous alternative money systems, he argued, such as Digicash and Digigold, had failed because there was a central company, a central office that could be shut down. Once this central point was shut down, the system came tumbling down with it.
So, intrinsic to bitcoin’s design, was that the system functioned on a distributed network – on multiple computers in multiple jurisdictions around the world. You might be able to take out one or more computers or nodes on the network, but you couldn’t take them all down. And it is the combined power of all the machines operating on the network that makes bitcoin so formidable. A government can make bitcoin illegal, but the computer power required to take down the network is so immense that it is almost impossible. This was Nakamoto’s blockchain.

Cont