Member Info for mrtibbles

As some long term members are aware respected mining analyst Kees Dekker produced two critical reports on the way Sukari was being operated and warned of the potential consequences!
Both reports were denied by Andrew Pardety who claimed they were based on flawed information.
However subsequent events proved that the Kees Dekker reports of 2015 & 2018 were both remarkably accurate!
With these facts in mind I find Kees Dekker's opinion of this presentation very reassuring!

"In particular the better understanding of the controls of the mineralisation at Sukari bodes well for the future!"

The US Kinesis VISA card features, include:

All the functionality of a US Bank account
$20,000 max limit
Global ATM withdrawals in local currency
$920 daily ATM withdrawal limit
$5,000 daily POS purchase limit
Free fiat transfer between KM platform and card.
FDIC Insured up to $250,000
Members of the US Kinesis Visa card and hybrid banking program will be charged a $1.99 monthly fee.

The integrated bank account enables Kinesis cardholders to receive their salaries directly into their Kinesis account. This feature makes it easy for users to immediately convert their income into the stable value of physical gold or silver each payday. Giving users the ability to instantly spend their precious metals for routine payments and everyday purchases. Alternatively, users can simply choose to invest a percentage of their monthly earnings in precious metals to put a little something aside for the future.
https://kinesis.money/company-news/us-kinesis-visa-card-public-launch/
Banking

Kinesis just launched a public private partnership with the government of Indonesia to provide a new payment system for their entire postal service. Of Indonesia's 275 million people, it is estimated that two thirds do not have a bank account or have very limited banking access. Now, if you have a smartphone you can use Kinesis as your banking system. Kinesis is building a gold and silver vault in Jakarta to service the country's needs. Indonesia, the worlds most populated Muslim majority country, previously banned all cryptocurrencies in 2017; fortunately, the Kinesis gold and silver system is Sharia (Islamic) law compliant because it is not based on debt and interest collection.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422965-kinesis-savings-payment-system-backed-by-precious-metals

Kinesis announce that the annualised return figures for the historic Holder’s Yield have now been released. Based on the payout made to Kinesis holders from October 6th 2020 - 2021, the yield paid to our holders was an average of 6.99%* on KAU holdings.

Kinesis has paid the world's first non-debt-based, passive yield on physical gold and silver.

The Holder’s yield is a proven, debt-free yield that competes with and, in many cases, outperforms traditional options in the market today, such as property, bonds, bank deposits and dividend-yielding stocks.

With the payout reaching a total of 2.84 million dollars’ worth of gold and silver, the Kinesis Monetary system is strongly positioned as a leading platform for purchasing and owning precious metals, forging a path to make precious metals accessible, available and usable for everyone
.https://kinesis.money/

I understand from reputable and long established sources there that some gold refiners now have two months worth and rising of back orders on the wholesale markets and central banks are still placing orders that the ordinary investors don't get to know about.

I agree a very conservative estimate, but then again the Tories exclude things like utilities costs energy, water, social care ,council tax , diesel, petrol, rent, and base their estimate for the ordinary people on a basket of shopping!
Sunak is out of touch with realty and a complete "Tw**!".

The share price is where is due to the ineptness of the previous management, the gold price is where it is due the the manipulation of the Comex cartel.
Martin Horgan and his team are making great progress in improving production at Sukari and reducing AISC to restore more profitable and reliable output.
Unfortunately the restoration of a respectable POG in the short term is going to be a much greater challenge, let's hope that Basel 3 will have some success in 2022!

Fair comments Nunquam!

Hi Iztar, Djryan,
Having witnessed what takes place in the public social housing sector I entirely sympathise and have some similar views/ opinions on this pressing and thorny issue that many people including our politicians are reluctant, or even just unwilling to regognise and debate urgently needed solutions to this problem.
I would say more but fear it may offend some.

hi Mr Bond,
All valid points!
Tech regret: Five inventors who questioned their creations
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-39002417
These days the Web can seem like a dark place, filled with internet trolls and divisive discourse. But the man who invented the World Wide Web 28 years ago is still optimistic (sort of).
https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/04/04/522593360/the-father-of-the-web-is-worried-about-how-ugly-its-become?t=1635301958711
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-39002417
"I don't regret creating the web," Berners-Lee told POLITICO at Web Summit, a technology conference in the Portuguese capital.
But, he added: "A couple of years ago, I realized there was a change of attitudes. We can't assume that connectivity will inevitably lead to more understanding."
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=CEY&share=Centamin-PLC&thread=F881A8CC-2F79-4EEA-81D8-34EEDE956811

Hi Mr Gnome,
Thank you for posting such very informative and important information on the damaging environmental impact on Bitcoin and some other crypto currencies.
Research increasingly seems to confirm that Crypto / Bitcoin users are either blissfully unaware or choose to ignore the damaging environmental impact being caused by their choice and use of certain crypto currencies.
More peoples and indeed governments need to be made aware of the the environmental damage being caused by some forms of "Crypto" currencies and encouraged to, or if that fails forced by international legislation to change to alternative environmentally friendly forms of Bitcoin/Crypto currencies.
Indeed such policies by governments would be very popular amongst the majority of the electorate and appear to be an easily achievable and painless opportunity for governments to make no cost but substantial contribution the the reduction of the worlds carbon footprint.
"The rise of crypto mining in the country has prompted government members to consider steps to tax the industry."
“Under normal circumstances, companies that are creating value in Iceland pay a certain amount of tax to the government,” Smari McCarthy, a member of Iceland’s Pirate Party, told the Associated Press. “These companies are not doing that, and we might want to ask ourselves whether they should.”
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/02/iceland-may-use-more-electricity-to-mine-bitcoins-than-it-does-to-power-all-of-its-houses-this-year
https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/20762/can-bitcoin-solve-its-green-problem

Quite so Volvic,
There is also the political agenda it does'nt suit politicians to have their countries central banks Fiat paper abandoned in favour of real gold, especially when central banks vaults don't hold the gold they claim to , it highlights the ineptness of our governments elected leaders and the serious flaws in their fiscal policies!

Fair comments CaneToad,
During these uncertain times in world politics and the market's it's become custom and practice for brokers like Liberum to utilise the fear factor amongst the herd to hammer the Centamin share down to suit their own company agenda.
Unfortunately the herd are notoriously lazy or reluctant to do their own research!

Good to hear from you Marmot!
On first impressions B2 seem to have made a very prudent move!
Thank you for the update!
Keep well!

Hi Canetoad,
I agree regarding the relationship with the POG and I also remain positive on the POG, however even if the POG were to remain at this level once the open pit is restored and the AISC are reduced this will have a very positive effect on the profits and the markets perception of the company.

H Mr Gnome,
I would like to say more, but mutual respect, courtesy and of course financial regulations prevent me from doing so in a public forum, however what I will say is that I have the utmost respect for Martin Horgan and I remain very optimistic for the future of Centamin !

Finish of Peel Hunt until further updates

Centamin
22 July 2021

2

Recommendation structure and distribution
Recommendation distribution at 22 July 2021 All research published in the last 90 days
Corporate No Corporate % No % Corporate % %
Buy 126 93 256 63 95 66
Add 5 4 63 16 3 15
Hold 3 2 63 16 2 15
Reduce 0 0 11 3 0 3
Sell 0 0 7 2 0 1
Under Review 2 1 6 1 0 1

Peel Hunt’s Recommendation Structure is as follows:
Buy, > +15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Add, +5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Hold, +/-5% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Reduce, -5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Sell, > -15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Under Review (UR), Recommendation, Target Price and/or Forecasts suspended pending market events/regulation

NB The recommendation is the primary driver for analyst views. The target price may vary from the structure due to market conditions, risk profile of
the company and capital returns

Research Disclosures Number Disclosure
1 Company is a corporate client of Peel Hunt
2 The Analyst has a shareholding in this Company
3 The Company holds >3% in Peel Hunt
4 Peel Hunt makes a market in this Company
5 Peel Hunt is Broker to this Company and therefore provides investment services to the Company
6 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking
services
7 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has acted as a sponsor/broker/ NOMAD/ financial advisor for an offer of securities from
this company
8 Peel Hunt holds >5% in Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014)
9 1% beneficial ownership (calculated for purposes of FINRA under Section 13(d)/(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
and IIROC Rule 3400)
10 Peel Hunt holds a net long position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
11 Peel Hunt holds a net short position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).

Recommendation history
Company Disclosures Date Rec Price Target Price
Centamin 4 26 Apr 21 Buy 117p 150p
19 Mar 21 Buy 105p 145p
17 Dec 20 Buy 121p 160p
02 Nov 20 Buy 124p 170p
09 Oct 20 Add 157p 218p
21 Sep 20 Add 214p 243p
13 Jul 20 Buy 188p 185p

This document must be treated as a marketing communication for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (as enacted into the laws of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland by regulations made under the European Union Withdrawal Act 2018) as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

A solid 2Q21 for production
Overall, CEY reported good production results for 2Q21 with
both production and sales beating by 5% and 2% respectively.
The beat at the revenue line was offset by a higher cost line and
potentially some cash outflows we had not forecast. Overall cash
at mid-year was reported at a still strong US$312m, just 2%
below our forecast. Production, cost and capex guidance for
2021 have all been maintained.

Production and gold sold beats PHe in 2Q
Centamin reported a good set of 2Q production results overall, but with mixed
financial highlights. Production in 2Q was strong at 100k oz, some 5% ahead of
our 95k oz forecast and in line with consensus at 100k oz. Underground ore
mined came in 17% ahead of our forecast while the open pit ore production came
in 13% below PHe. CEY processed 2,804kt of ore (7% below PHe at 3,000kt),
but with a higher grade of 1.19g/t (6% above PHe at 1.12g/t) and slightly higher
recoveries of 89% (PHe 88%). The company sold 97k oz in the quarter, above
our 95k oz forecast.
Revenue in 2Q21 beats by 9%
CEY also reported a good realised price of US$1,822/oz, some 4% ahead of PHe
forecasts for the period. Revenue for 2Q therefore came in better at US$177.5m,
some 9% above our US$163m. Costs for the period were reported slightly higher
than expected at AISC of US$1,290/oz vs PHe at US$1,277/oz.
Cash a bit lower than forecast, guidance for 2021 maintained
With capex coming in lower at US$41m (PHe at US$59m), it was slightly
surprising to see FCF at just US$7m (vs PHe at US$12m), even though
management commented that this was higher than they had budgeted. It implies
maybe some higher one-off costs during 1H21 and potentially a working capital
unwind from 2H20. Overall cash was therefore reported slightly lower than
forecast at US$312m vs PHe at US$317m. The company maintained
production, cost and capex guidance for 2021E, but increased the exploration
budget to US$17m (from US$5m) to include additional work on the West
African portfolio. The Sukari Phase 2 LOM review is still scheduled for 4Q21E.
CONT

Sorry that concludes what I am able to post from Berenberg note.

SXXP MSCI Metals
& Mining

1mth 10.4% 7.2%
3mth -9.1% -0.4%
12mth -66.3% -67.2%

Profit and loss summary
USD m 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 652 829 736 803 748
EBITDA 293 439 370 404 323
EBITA 177 314 241 281 202
EBIT 167 313 241 281 202
Associates contribution - - - - -
Net interest 6 2 1 1 1
Tax - - - - -
Minorities 0 0 0 0 0
Net income adj. 77 157 169 194 114
EPS reported 0.08 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.10
EPS adjusted 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.10
Year end shares 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156
Average shares 1,153 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Cash flow summary
USD m 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net income 173 315 242 282 203
Depreciation 116 125 129 123 121
Working capital changes -25 10 -62 -11 14
Other non-cash items -15 4 -1 2 2
Operating cash flow 249 453 308 397 340
Capex -93 -139 -229 -204 -181
FCFE 156 314 79 193 159
Acquisitions, disposals 7 7 0 0 0
Other investment CF -159 -313 -79 -192 -158
Dividends paid -81 -139 -81 -82 -63
Buybacks, issuance 0 -3 0 0 0
Change in net debt 4 -13 61 -24 -9
Net debt (cash negative) -278 -291 -231 -255 -264
FCF per share 0.13 0.27 0.07 0.17 0.14

Growth and margins
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue growth 8.1% 27.0% -11.2% 9.1% -6.8%
EBITDA growth 13.7% 49.7% -15.6% 9.1% -20.0%
EBIT growth 13.1% 87.5% -23.1% 16.7% -28.2%
EPS adj growth 14.6% 104.4% 7.5% 14.8% -41.0%
FCF growth 15.3% 102.1% -74.8% 143.2% -17.5%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.9% 50.3% 50.3% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 32.8% 35.1% 27.0%
Net income margin 11.8% 18.9% 23.0% 24.2% 15.3%
FCF margin 23.9% 37.9% 10.8% 24.0% 21.3%
Key ratios
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net debt / equity -21.5% -22.6% -16.6% -16.9% -16.9%
Net debt / EBITDA -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8
Avg cost of debt - - - - -
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Interest cover - - - - -
Payout ratio 60.6% 66.5% 62.4% 36.0% 43.1%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 16.9% 18.3% 12.7%
Capex / sales 14.3% 16.8% 31.2% 25.4% 24.2%
Capex / depreciation 80.7% 111.5% 177.0% 166.3% 149.5%

Valuation metrics
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
P / adjusted EPS 22.7 11.8 9.4 8.2 13.9
P / book value 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 1.2% 6.7% 4.5%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 6.7% 4.4% 3.1%
EV / sales 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8
EV / EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.2
EV / EBIT 8.9 5.1 5.7 4.8 6.7
EV / FCF 9.5 5.1 17.4 7.1 8.5
EV / cap. employed 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8
Key risks to our investment thesis
? Gold:Gold:Gold:Gold: With no financial gearing (no debt), Centamin has lower-than-
average sensitivity to the gold price. Given the strength of the
balance sheet, the Sukari mine will survive a lower price than most.
? Updated mine plan:Updated mine plan:Updated mine plan:Updated mine plan: The updated mine plan, due before the end of
2021, could materially alter our long-term assumptions for both the
open pit and underground mine.

Cont