NFP Fri Seeking Alpha6 Nov 2021 10:18
It's been a long week of economic data, high-profile events and Q3 earnings, but there's one more to go before it comes to a close. The Labor Department will report the latest numbers on job growth this morning, with the figures set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Headwinds like the summer surge in COVID-19 infections are hoped to have subsided, giving more evidence that economic activity regained some momentum early in Q4, though seasonal hiring and worker shortages have been wild cards, weighing on recent reports.
Snapshot: Consensus estimates call for 450K jobs added in October, though September's report totaled 194K additional jobs, far short of a forecast of 500K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.7% from 4.8%, while hourly wages are expected to climb by 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. That last number will be especially important for investors, given that the market is hyper-focused on inflation and whether it will continue to run hotter than expected.
"[The] payrolls numbers become even more significant, as it is the first full month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits, while public health has simultaneously improved and labor demand has remained strong," noted Chris Hussey, managing director at Goldman Sachs.
Outlook: If job reports over the next few months point to stronger hiring, the Fed could accelerate its newly announced tapering plans. On the flip side, the central bank's announcement this week put markets on high alert for inflation, meaning it will be more sensitive to economic reports in the near-term. The ADP National Employment Report already showed an acceleration in private payrolls on Wednesday, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits has remained under 300K for four straight weeks.