Member Info for mrtibbles

Which goldie is that Chique?

Wingingit
Don't beat yourself up ,this is the usual reaction from the market taking the chance to churn the shares and stamp down the POG when Powell talks about the the POSSIBILITY of 4 or 5 interest rate increases of a piddling 0.25% a time, he has'nt actually raised them yet, and even if he does people have still got to be able to repay the interest rates,and they can't cope now!
Will raising interest rates this time curb inflation, might do, might not, the situation is somewhat different considering all the other factors in play this time prices may just keep rising and raising rates further could bring about another market crash and what does the FED ans all the other central banks do then, bail out buggers that have caused the crash and make the ordinary people pay the bill by printing more money, Oh and cut interest rates!
The worlds monetary system is buggered, the ultra rich have moved their wealth to tax havens, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Mc Donalds ,Star Bucks and most of the other multi nationals aided by our worlds crooked political elites exploit the broken and unfit for purpose system to the full and the ordinary people pay the price!
Because of the previous Sukari managements, corner cutting and flawed mining practice the share price has been decimated to the pain of many long term holders, but that said just like them in the past you have been able to buy in at bucket shop price!
It is annoying to long term share holders to say the least when it becomes apparent that the previous management are guilty of creating a dangerous almost unworkable mess at Sukari, rather than than than world class mine they promised and that many millions of dollars have been squandered on drilling holes in Batie West, but infuriating as it is ,that is the past!
Now under the new professionally competent and focused management Sukari will become the promised world class mine, able to operate safely and deliver estimated guidance on a sustainable basis and if all goes as planned the flagship mine of a number of other Centamin operated and profitable gold mines.
It's easy to became depressed at times like this, but there is the likely hood of some very positive developments as we progress through 2022!
Tibbs

Might be opportune time for the management to sell all the West African assets it intends to and use some or all of proceeds for a share buy back at this level?
Or use the WA sale proceeds to cover some of the Sukari waste clearance costs and for Egyptian exploration and mine development costs ?

If the share price remains at this level it will be wise to transfer up to the £20,000 use all this years allowance and 2022's or x2 if the spouse has opened an ISA, the the lovely divi will be tax free , just like all the Tory Toff's enjoy!

This morning, IG announced a record first-half performance. Net trading revenue increased 16% to £471.9m over the six months to the end of November. Pre-tax profit also rose 8% to £245.2m. That’s pretty impressive stuff considering that markets were fairly stable over the period (IG makes money when traders try to capitalise on volatility).
Today, the FTSE 250 member elected to keep its interim payout steady at 12.96p per share. Assuming the full-year cash return stays at 43.2p, that means IG yields 4.9% — eight times what the best Cash ISA will give.
At yesterday’s close, IG shares traded at just 11 times earnings. While the threat of further industry regulation may go some way to explaining this valuation (and dividends are never guaranteed), I’d have no issue buying more.
Another option
Of course, IG isn’t the only cheap dividend stock out there. Shares in Polar Capital Holdings (LSE: POLR) also grab THE attention.
The fund manager’s price has tumbled 19% in 2022 to date as investors have become increasingly skittish. As far as I can see, it’s nothing to do with Polar itself.
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/forget-cash-isa-d-buy-125328961.html

The Most Shorted Stocks on the FTSE
January’s spike in market volatility came after a fairly benign 2021 for stocks, reminding investors that what goes up sometimes also comes down. Whether this is a long-expected collapse or just a wobble is hard to tell at this juncture. What a market correction does do is offer opportunities for short sellers, who bet on the prices of share prices falling.
There have been plenty of heavy one-day falls in recent trading sessions, especially in the US, where Peloton (PTON) and Netflix (NFLX) have plunged on negative newsflow. In UK we’ve seen some strong price moves in individual stocks, not least at The Hut Group (THG), whose shares are down 40% so far this year after a precitipous decline in 2021.
Handily, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) produces a daily list of the most shorted stocks. This dynamic list gives an insight into what professional investors think about particular sectors, and sometimes gives an early warning sign of a company in trouble. That could be helpful to retail investors if they’re looking to sell out of an underperforming stock.
The list shows changes in sentiment towards certain sectors: oil shares were heavily shorted in 2020, for instance, but the latest rebound means they have dropped out of the main list.
What's on the daily FCA register of short positions is always of interest to investors, large and small
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/218418/the-most-shorted-stocks-on-the-ftse.aspx

Quite so Mr Gnome!

The world's largest stock market in the US has already lost 10 percent of its value in the first few weeks of this year as Joe Biden's administration come under mounting pressure. Stocks in the global superpower have tumbled as fears continue over potential interest rate hikes, which have spooked "growth" investors who are now backing businesses that are expanding rapidly but often generate little to no profit. Historically, interest rate hikes have sent forecast profits plunging, meaning companies promising future rewards are less appealing to investors around the world.
On Tuesday, the FTSE 100 dropped 2.6 percent while the FTSE 250 plunged 3.6 percent as increasing fears of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the prospect of higher interest rates, spooked investors.
In a day of turmoil in the City of London, that had wiped £68billion off the value of Britain's 350 leading listed companies.
But a totally different story is unfolding in China - home to the world's second-largest economy behind the US - where shares in the country are quickly gaining ground.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has overtaken the American benchmark S&P 500, reporting gains of six percent since the start of this year.
In a major boost for China, its central bank has cut a key interest rate for the first time in almost two years in a huge attempt to inject significant momentum into the economy.
The move has improved the outlook of shares following a controversial crackdown on regulations in 2021 that saw some of the biggest companies in China take a massive hit.
Paris Jordan, of the wealth manager Waverton, explained: "China is one of the few countries that is cutting rates, with most developed nations tightening their monetary policy.
"As such, this could be a tailwind for the stock market and appears to have created an attractive buying opportunity."
Sharukh Malik, manager of the Guinness Best of China fund, said stocks in the country appeared cheap on a historic basis.
The expert said: "At a 12.6 times multiple of 2022 earnings, they are valued at an eight percent discount to the average over five years, since the big technology stocks were added to the index.
"There is little future growth priced in, though market earnings are forecast to grow 16 percent a year in 2022 and 2023.
"This is faster growth than the wider Asian region, faster than Europe and faster than the US and yet is valued much lower."

In Kees experience there is an extra cost working in African countries. The productivity there is lower than elsewhere.
Kees does not subscribe to many unit mining cost estimates used for African countries in the economic assessment in technical reports.
It was confirmed to Kees that a SRK study had come up with an average unit rate of US$3.5/t mined for Africa.
This includes drilling and blasting, I estimate for free dig material this should be some US$1/t lower.
About Batie, it is non-core in Kees mind because the very low grade makes it unattractive given the risks associated with a project in Africa and a political high-risk country at that.
No wonder they downgraded Batie!
Although Doropo is better, although still not fantastic.

My personal view is that Martin will achieve what he has stated, he has a reputation for usually having something in reserve!, also if all goes as hoped some uplifting news considering what is going on !

Still to be decided but the policy remains intact, as backed up by this research note just out from Jefferies. In para 3 he states the following:



“CEY's commitment to hold the FY21 divi at least flat YoY ($0.09/sh) supports a 7.4% yield at the current share price. CEY will report 2H21 financial results in mid-March.”



That is a view and was the essence of what was said on the webinar call

How aggressive will the Fed be in its fight against inflation? Investors hope to get some answers today from Chair Jay Powell, who will take the podium at 2:30 p.m. ET. On watch is the pace of interest rate increases, which are expected to begin in March and accelerate this year, to help slow the pace of price pressures that have plagued the U.S. economy for most of 2021. The Consumer Price Index even breached the 7% level in December, running at its highest annual pace in nearly 40 years.

Balancing act: "Weaker economic growth projections have contributed to investors breathing a sigh of relief that the Fed won't have to be overly aggressive," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, but that's specifically what some are afraid of: a policy mistake. A transitory inflation forecast - since retired by the central bank - remains fresh in investors' minds. If the Fed goes too soft, it runs the risk of allowing price pressures to get entrenched in the economy, making it a lot harder to fight inflation down the line.

The rate hiking cycle isn't the only thing on watch. The Fed is looking to combine the tightening with a reversal of its bond-buying program and a runoff of its nearly $9T balance sheet, betting that a smaller central bank presence in financial markets could help relieve inflationary forces. In contrast, the Fed was focused on the economic risks posed by the coronavirus pandemic for much of the last year, continuing to support the economy with pandemic-era stimulus.

Outlook: Keep an eye on 10-year Treasury yields, which briefly broke above the 1.9% threshold last week, triggering the fear seen in equities and much of the market. There are also worries that international developments could exacerbate inflationary forces, like supply problems related to China's Zero COVID policies or an energy crisis from a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In turn, many foreign economies are watching the Fed's path forward on monetary policy, which can shake up exchange rates and destabilize economic growth around the world.

Dasut,
Re West Wall etc,
You are right, it seems
West wall. It’s not moving by the way!
As to when that higher grade part of the open pit will be mined depends on the scheduling of the strip above that section and the mine plan overall for the open pit.
The stripping programme is at least on schedule (in fact probably ahead overall as Capital have over delivered to date) so it augurs well for short/medium term flexibility in the open pit.

Hi Dasut ,Paul,
You may recall that Martin Horgan spoke about this on one of the Webinar's
Centamin’s Sukari gold mine in Egypt is in the process of upgrading its fleet of Caterpillar 785C haul trucks with “lightweight truck trays” designed by VR Steel and fabricated by Egypt-based Aresco.

https://im-mining.com/2021/08/12/centamin-working-with-vr-steel-real-mining-and-aresco-on-truck-tray-rollout-at-sukari/

Spoon,
Why do you think that the share price has reacted so erratically in the past , its because the Sukari mines output couldn't be relied upon due to poor mining practices , the market knew this which encouraged some brokers to take short positions.
Properly run companies don't crash 50% in value in a few days !
You claims of trading success in taking advantage of huge share price surges and falls is confirmation of a the failure the previous Sukari management to establish sound mining practice in order to achieve consistent and reliable output guidance.
So now the recovery of Centamin is at last underway and will gain pace over 2022, although as Dasut points out, such is the task facing the new management it will take some time, but that said it may well prove to be a great investment for the long term!

Sppon ,
If you recall the main reason that Centamin decided to develop outside of Egypt was due to the mining code at that time.
Since then the Eygptian mining code has changed considerably and making development of new mines very attractive for Centamin and others!
I am informed you need good grade in Western Africa to pay for extraction there. There is such a thing as an African cost structure and it is relatively high!.
To that you need to add the security risk which is increasing annually with the fundamental islamist insurgency. Sure, the comment below about forfeiting 1.4 million ounces may be true, but are they economic ounces? It may well be a case of preventing throwing good money after bad money.
Funny how often people believe that management makes decisions unfavourable to the company and, by extension, them. From recent actions it seems that Centamin management has decided to rather focus away from West Africa with all its problem back to Egypt where they have a strong foothold, existing government relations, knowledge of the geology and it being a country with very little historical exploration.
So it seems prudent instead of risking share holders money on developing resources that may be far better sold to others .
Wanadoo
Apparently its history goes back to 2011, first advanced by a company called Ampella Mining, which was acquired by Centamin in 2014, which was seemingly mostly interested in the Konkera and Batie prospects. I did a search for “Wadaradoo” on Centamin’s website and it does not even pop up. That is how unimportant the prospect is for Centamin. They do give a resource for Batie West of 2.11 Moz at a grade of 1.17 g/t all in Indicated and Measured category. The project is classified as Non-Core, which does not surprise me given the relatively low grade and its location. In the October corporate presentation of Centamin Batie West does not feature. The downgrading of the project came soon after new management got involved.
Wadaradoo is apparently now owned by Altair, which states in a corporate presentation dated October 2021 that the resource is 1.4 Moz at 0.95 g/t Au, even lower grade than Batie West. I have not found any details on this prospect and have no information about the type of mineralisation (oxide versus sulphide, amenable to heap leaching, prospective strip ratio, etc.), but suspect it is pretty mediocre to worthless. Why otherwise would Altair’s market cap. be currently only US$5 million, including having another project? Apparently the market also does not see much value in the project. Maybe some attache too much credit to the statement in the Altair corporate presentation that "Feasibility level projects in West Africa: "Typically $300 million to $400 million valuations”.
This statement's generalisation is questionable. Value is determined by size, grade, prospective strip ratio, dilution, metallurgy, etc. There is no such thing as “typical” for mining projects.

Hi Mizolgit,
Be interested to hear you opinion on why we are where we are at Sukari and if you agree the new strategy for the company in Egypt and west Africa ?

Absolutely agree Dasut!

Spoon,
Comments from Kees Dekker mining analyst on the present situation who incidentally approves of Martin Horgans present strategy at Sukari.
It again shows how short is the time frame is of many investors.
The turnaround was signaled more than a year ago.
That was however too far out for people to take a position and just sit it out.
Now at last the ratings are adjusted upwards.
Best to dump western African projects.
All far too risky given the local politics and conflicts.

Hi Gnome,
Not a rant at all, simply the facts that the rest of the worlds political elite never care to acknowledge , face up to and help to address the issues of exploitation and corruption by those who should know better, no indeed they prefer to just turn a blind eye and exploit these counties aided their arms dealers, unscrupulous mining and energy companies and the Shi(tes running the worlds stock markets!