Member Info for mrtibbles

Kenj , As Andrew explains the "game' is already in the wind down stages,
Andrews comparison of the of unwinding of positions to the changing direction of an oil tanker is a fair one, all the LBMA has gained is a bit more time and as 2022 progresses so will the winding down of the Comex paper positions.

Very fair comments Tony,
We had the choice in the past to believe either the CEO of the company that we had invested in or a reputable and very experienced industry independent annalist , unfortunately our CEO at the time wasn't being truthful.
You made the right choice , although as you refer to at least now Kees is in complete agreement with the changes that are now taking place .

Hi Miziolgit,
Also very relevant points, always a balancing act at times like this, as you point out, its important not to make the company appear weaker to the market which may well assist any would be take over or potential predator!

Hi Bob&Liz
Also very fair points and certainly very relevant observations to the debate , which I agree with.
Tibbs

Hi Cowichan,
I appreciate your theory is primarily conjecture of a Barrick take over is and open to debate, although after the recent admissions or pretty startling excuses that the BOD & NED's in Jersey failed to realise that the Sukari management were guilty of sharp practice (high grading and failing to clear away years worth of waste)to enable continued spoofing of the market and share holders that Sukari was capable of what is now proven to have been unachievable guidance, then indeed any long term share holders concerns or suspicions given present circumstances are justifiable, or at the very least understandable.
As Rebess and other have pointed out, as yet all we have is promises that things are changing, the proof will be in the pudding (IE a respectable rise in share price)
Long term holders have given the management the benefit of the doubt on many occasions after various promises predictions have failed to materialise , I will not be alone in recalling what Josef stated in the 2014 Jersey presentation and his predictions of 560,000-600,000 oz as being the norm to a number of share holders during the after presentation chat session, it seems now that Josef had our leg's up!
I still recall Pardey lying on a 2018 Q&A session stating he was unaware of the 2015 & 2018 K.Dekker reports ,this despite him having tried to deny the conclusions to the media and complaining to the editor of Seeking Alpha!
in 2018 Pardey failed to manage Barinco underground contractor properly, or at least failed to ensure that the one and only running on limits,but critically important LHDR had essential spare parts available which meant that the impact of low grade open pit ore could nor be mitigated by supplementing higher grade underground ore, so instead share holders were given lame excuses. promises that lesson would be learned and kick in the crotch for the share price!
Fast forward to 2020 the full scale of the sharp practice, corner cutting and spoofing by Pardey and his Compadre's was exposed by a crack in the wall delivering another 50% kick in the crotch to share price!
So although share holders want to have faith in the new regime, its certainly no time for complacency about anything!

Please note The opinions expressed in this video are of Andrew Maguire and any guest.
Ep.58 Live from the Vault: Gold and Silver Price Outlook 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua-eP-zz5W0

Gold producer Centamin (CEY) implies a new law in Egypt could result in the dismissal of a legal case questioning its right to operate the Sukari gold mine. Investors understandably like the news, sending the share price up 9.3% to 61.17p. It is very encouraging but this remains a risky stock as the legal matter is not yet concluded and political instability is still a problem.
Centamin has been fighting a court case since October 2012 brought by Hamdy El Fakharany, a lawyer and former member of parliament who has had previous success with similar asset ownership challenges in the property space. He has challenged the Egyptian government over the way in which the original licences were awarded for Sukari. This Q&A from Centamin provides further details on the court case.
Today's announcement highlights a new investment law which restricts third parties from challenging contractual agreements between the Egyptian government and investors. The new law appears to apply to both new and respective legal cases. Effectively that should free Centamin of the legal battles that have weighed heavily on its market valuation.
While the signs look good for Centamin, hence the big share price movement today, the matter has not officially been concluded. Nonetheless, analysts remain optimistic.
Stockbroker Numis says: 'While by no means certain this could well squash the legal case and remove the stone around Centamin's neck.' Goldman Sachs comments: 'The overhang on Centamin (regarding the ongoing challenge in relation to the Sukari concession agreement) has been removed. We see today's announcement as a big positive for the stock.'
Westhouse Securities says: 'It is obviously positive news for the company, and reinforces our belief that the company is likely to win its appeal. However, until the challenge is removed we are retaining our 18% discount rate on the stock.'
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-eyes-end-of-legal-pains

Good point Spot,
CEY AGM. 2014 Jersey
Dividend Josef El Raghy forecast that it would be 3-4%. which equated to around 1.8 to 2.4p. A
In making the calculation of the divi a sum for the notional profit share with the Egyptian Govt will be taken into account.
After the formal presentation Josef said that it would be sensible to make further advances to the govt before the profit share formally became due.
During the formal presentation:-
Josef expected that there would be 2 years of drilling probably costing up to $20m.
There was $11m of cash in the company on acquisition. After that $250m might be spent on building a mine during say 2016 and 2017.
The Drilling at Sukari Hill from the top of the hill down was expensive and rather hit and miss.
So in future the resource would mainly be increased through sideways drilling of the underground portion.
Future guidance Josef stated that 500,000 oz per annum was not a ceiling and 600,000 to 700,000 oz. were conceivable in 2016, quite a change from the website which states guidance at more conservative figures, so did this mean significant upside potential in the longer term?
Court Case.when Josef stated he thought the new law would be considered by the Constitutional Court and that In the 2 cases that had been considered so far those bringing the cases have 90 days in which to make a referral.
However in the Centamin case he expected the Constitutional Court to consider the matter in 30 to 40 days as there were several major investment announcements were ready to be made and the govt. wanted these announcements to be made as soon as possible.
When asked askedJosef stated Van Eck Associates the 2nd largest shareholder via a passive tracker as is Norges Bank.
Discretionary institutional investment in this company is very low because they won't invest before the cc is resolved and possibly a reason why the market makers and the analysts rate the share price low to attract future potential institutional investors?
Possibly then more apparently irrational share price action is to be expected?
Re profit share allowing for cumulative profits in the account, cumulative cap ex. and exploration cost and future costs profit share is someway off.
See note in the accounts that the company expect profit share to start in the year ended 30th June 2015, although Josef said that this may not happen in that year or even the next.
The analysts didn't query this possibly due to lack of institutional funds interest.
Their consensus of 7.7p earnings for 2015 was just an estimate at that stage.

Ep.58 Gold and Silver Price Outlook 2022

Andrew Maguire shares his gold and silver price trajectory projection for the year ahead and explores the bullish momentum, triggered by the Basel III implementation that is now carrying through the market.

The precious metals expert drills down the evidence of a tightening physical supply and analyses the liquidity providers’ behavior, in anticipation of the explosive changes that are looming on the financial horizon.

00:00 Start
01:55 A summary of the past few weeks in gold
08:20 Where is the selling coming from?
11:11 What to expect in the gold market now?
15:05 Basel III now goes fully into effect!
17:15 Could March 2020-style EFP blow-up be repeated?
25:05 Changes to CME performance bonds requirement
28:55 An exciting update for Silver Stackers
31:00 EFP and the Refinery supply issues

Please note The opinions expressed in this video of Andrew Maguire and any guest

Absolutely agree with Mr Gnome, although there isn't any chance of Bristow tripping over his ego, it is after all the size of Everest!

Thank you Mr Bond, lets hope they sort out the SCC, Law 32 and the still outstanding court case soon too!
https://enterprise.press/stories/2022/01/12/this-evening-macro-group-ipo-gets-green-light-from-egx-listing-committee-egypt-to-dig-for-gold-other-minerals-in-new-industrial-mining-cities-62577/

The UK is the closest of any country in the northern hemisphere to exiting the Covid-19 pandemic, an expert has said.
Professor David Heymann, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), suggested in a Chatham House online briefing that the UK was seeing the disease become endemic.

He said: “In general, now, the countries that we know best in the northern hemisphere have varying stages of the pandemic.

“And probably, in the UK, it’s the closest to any country of being out of the pandemic if it isn’t already out of the pandemic and having the disease as endemic as the other four coronaviruses.”

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-uk-closest-country-141949632.html

in an interview with Stansberry Research earlier this week, Kiyosaki pointed out that the eurodollar yield curve is now inverted (shorter-maturity debt has a higher yield than longer-maturity debt), which has historically meant that “something bad is happening.”

https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/kiyosaki-three-assets-december?utm_source=syn_oath_mon&utm_medium=B&utm_campaign=20551&utm_content=oath_mon_20551_Robert+Kiyosaki+Says+We%27re+Already+in+a+%27Technical

Friday October 21, 2011 2:50 pm
Adair Turner, the chairman of the UK’s Financial Services Authority, has criticised potential European regulations that could prevent the UK from imposing its own stricter capital requirements for its banks.
In a speech at the Mansion House last night, Lord Turner said it was "wrong and potentially harmful" for Europe to prevent the UK regulator from imposing its own capital requirements.
He said: "One thing which is crystal clear, but an area of significant concern, is that forthcoming European legislation must allow adequate flexibility for the national variation of macro-prudential tools.
"European capital adequacy regulation should enforce minimum standards across the European Union, but it should leave national authorities free to exceed and vary them above the minimum. The idea that securing the single market requires the harmonisation of maximum as well as minimum standards is simply wrong and potentially harmful."
The European Commission and some countries have argued for so-called "maximum harmonisation" for when the 27-country bloc implements tough new capital requirements being drawn up by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
The Basel III rules require banks to hold a minimum bank capital ratio of 7%, which European officials also want to use as the maximum level.
The UK Independent Commission on Banking recently proposed a higher core Tier 1 capital ratio of 10% for the ringfenced retail banking operations of UK banks.
Lord Turner joins a growing list of dissenters lobbying against maximum harmonisation of Basel III within the European Union.
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/fsa-head-argues-for-gold-plated-uk-banks-20111021
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm
https://www.ft.com/content/6551322f-31ae-4506-9ffc-e48ce8e1a104

Thank you Tornado,
Mr Gnome will no doubt also find your post very interesting!

So it seems you have may have made a good choice Sotolo!
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/11/11/tharisa-s-dividend-looks-precious/
Liberum’s analysts see palladium dropping off slightly next year ($2,400 an ounce compared with $2,472 an ounce this year) but have platinum making up plenty of ground and rhodium getting back above $20,000 an ounce following a recent sharp sell off. Liberum also picks platinum as the only major metal that doesn’t “carry downside risk” over the next five years. This is partly down to its weaker performance in recent years and attractiveness as a cheaper palladium alternative, but that is a strong endorsement for a platinum-exposed miner.

Thank you Tornado,
No doubt if our present government is aware of this they will choose to deny, ignore or suppress it because it doesn't fit in with their agenda!

My pleasure Mizolgit,
There appeared to be some general confusion or misunderstanding on what was actually taking place at Sukari and the aims of the newly implemented operational strategy.
last year Kees Dekker endorsed Martin Horgan's present strategy and commented that as long as gold prices remain at present levels Centamin will easily cope with turning things around and making a profit, however since then there is now the bonuses of two years extra mine life and newly discovered and confirmed, but as yet not fully quantified bonus "Bonanza structures".
I feel confident that there is much more to come yet, although this time the recovery will be based on sound mining practice and the rise to a respectable share price with be supported by achievable and long term sustainable output!

It seems there is a rumour or assumption circulating on various forums that the Sukari grades will remain low for the next 4 years, however this is not the case!
The latest upgrade note from Liberum was a very welcome acknowledgement and recognition that the new managements strategy at Sukari is actually working!
The Liberum note summed things up pretty well, although it is essential to also refer to the Centamin LOA2 review-

Re the underground operations Liberum wrote:

"However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbocharging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later."

Re the open pit - from the LOA2 review Centamin stated
The costs of the increased stripping will be more than offset by the improvement in grade from the open pit.
However, and as per slide 16 from the presentation on 8.12.21, the head grade from the O/P will of course fall due to the fact of the stripping - which is over a 4 year period as there is a lot of waste rock being moved!
However the feed into the processing plant remains constant for the next few years (see presentation link below).
This is NOT factoring in any production from the bonanza grades identified (and commented on by Liberum),
But in fact this is a base case and part of the whole process of being consistent in producing 450-500koz per annum.
Remember, this accelerated stripping is mainly to provide flexibility for future years ,
this in turn feeds into the new strategy to be consistent in gold production!

https://www.centamin.com/investors/presentations-webcasts/

The case for selling Endeavour
As we noted in our initiation report (Ambitious, nimble West African gorilla is
currently fully valued, 15 December 2021), there is much to commend about
Endeavour. The company has an established track record at meeting
guidance, while committed minimum dividends and share buybacks make for
attractive indicative shareholder returns.
However, these all appear to be priced in: the market appears to be valuing
Endeavour - including upside potential - using a long-term gold price of
c.US$1,715/oz, or a low discount rate of c.5% (despite the difficult
geographies in which the company operates).
Meanwhile, Endeavour is currently relatively low-cost, but we will be watching
in 2022 to see just how well it is able to contain the inflationary pressures that
are being experienced in the mining industry globally. Margins could be
further pressured if the gold price trends down as we forecast.
In such a scenario, Endeavour’s committed minimum dividends could appear
increasingly attractive, particularly if the company maintains (or ups) the
tempo of share buybacks. However, a gold price downtrend could stymie
Endeavour’s hopes of joining the FTSE 100, particularly if the FTSE 100
trends up (Liberum’s strategy analysts are forecasting a 15-20% rise in that
index during 2022).
The short of it is that we see only a slim chance of FTSE 100 inclusion in the
near term, and our expectation is that this will offset the attractions of the
shareholder returns policy. Whilst there are a number of potential upside
catalysts during 2022 (e.g. DFS results for two key projects are to be released
in early 2022), these are relatively minor in the grand scheme of things. For
these reasons, we initiated with a HOLD rating.
Our Target Price for Endeavour of 1316p implies 15% downside, the
unattractiveness of which is magnified when set against the 22% upside to
our new Centamin target. We therefore downgrade Endeavour to SELL.