Member Info for mrtibbles

Speculation is a round game; the players see little or nothing of their cards at first starting; gains MAY be great--and so may losses. The run of luck went against Mr Nickleby. A mania prevailed, a bubble burst, four stock-brokers took villa residences at Florence, four hundred nobodies were ruined, and among them Mr Nickleby!

Charles Dickens

"The Life and Adventures of Nicholas Nickleby"

Sorry typo should read a "now confronted with £20billion black hole!"

If only I had been right the first time, what bliss!

Hi Auson,

I absolutely agree , problem here is that once people like Neil Woodford achieves 'Financial Guru' status no one wants to be the first to speak out or question his decisions and as more failures accumulate the tendency amongst the financial sector so as not to lose the public's confidence is to sweep it all under the boardroom carpet and hope things improve until there are so many lumps and bumps in the carpet that some press hound pokes the lazy regulators out of their afternoon snooze and all of a sudden the market is in danger of a meltdown whereupon the government and the BOE decide to use public funds to bail the buggers out for the good of our country!

My view is all the private pension funds freeloading parasites whose performance overall is negligible at best and dire at worst and they certainly don't deliver anything near the what retail investors are led to believe, if fact some of the buggers after having charge decent people huge amounts in commissions and management fees then declare the pot is empty !

Why not simply nationalise them all and simplify things by merging them all into the UK State Pension Fund and make all the top management structures reapply for senior posts based on their past performance record which would have to be subject to audit!

This would have numerous advantages because it would simplify the whole pension industry costs and enabling an earlier retirement age for everyone with initially a 25%- 30% increase in basic state pension whilst freeing up jobs for the young.

Our MP's can retire on a civil service pension from age 55, so why are ordinary citizens expected to work till they drop or at least 68 years for some derisory basic sum that likely has to be supplemented with pension credits if they haven't been able to afford for an additional private pension operated a member of "Charlatan Carpet Baggers Association" posing as pension and investment professionals!

So that's my take, obviously others may feel differentially, but after the 14 years of Tory lies , back door privatisation, austerity and Boris's lying premiership including the proroguing of parliament, lying to the Queen , a disastrous Brexit with the years of increased stealth taxes a £21 billion Covid dodgy deals fiasco and then the creation of prison hulks and a failed Rwandan resettlement deal costing at laest £50 million the public are now confronted with a £20 million black hole?

There's a lot of white noise in the industry: companies with different quality assess and different likelihood of success all say the same thing, making it extremely difficult to decide where to invest your money.

What to consider when analysing a company: Company managements relevant experience

Attractiveness of the geology and economic, Financing available,The permitting and licensing process, Potential mergers and acquisitions.Jurisdictional risk, Corporate structure.

(Steve is right on this one!)

Take the emotion out of investing. we are here to make money!

The need to avoid being fooled by confirmation bias!

Confirmation bias kills profit - don't be fooled!

There's also a lot of biased information online, paid-for by the company that is intentionally skewing the facts of the company its promoting, (Slick quarterly presentations)

Make sure to look at at the authors position in a company ( CEO & CFO) before reading the information, and discount all or most of what has been written!!!!!

Whilst an article written by the company you're invested in can be very useful, don't give-in to confirmation bias! (the process of reading and absorbing information that positively affirms your investment decision.)

For example, if I am invested in a mining company (Centamin)and read reports/information only endorsed by that same company - how can I possibly know that information is accurate? (Bonanza grades & Doropo, etc!)

Instead, focus on unbiased and in-depth analysis from multiple sources and validate all facts independently!

Seek honest answers to the right questions, because many fall into the confirmation bias trap and you're just kidding yourself out of profits!

Take the emotion out of investing , (take off the rose coloured glasses), we are after all here to make money as well as the BOD!

There are likely more than 3,000 junior mining companies listed on exchanges globally, with new ones constantly appearing - some good, some bad. some dire!

So how can all of them survive and make money?

They can’t and they won't unless they can pump up a tale and reel in the the suckers! (Retail investors!)

Worldwide there are less than 50 major mining companies, so it makes sense that not all juniors can progress to this stage - some must fail, some will be bought up and most will wander aimlessly or reincarnate themselves, helped by wandering by wanderig former CEO's (Who might they be!)

Between 2010 and 2011, out of 500 Uranium exploration companies, only 2 got into production!

Juniors require substantial capital to get into production and can take 10-20 years to do so, during which time a lot of things can go wrong

Choice of jurisdiction Poor exploration drill results, the technical limitations of the orebody

mining permits not granted, running out of cash, crash in the commodity price. social and environmental conflicts,poor management decisions!!

So this is why I remain somewhat suspicious of what we are being told!

Retail investors, (Yes that's us!) very rarely have access to the types of company reports that are paid for by institutional investors which can cost up to £100,000!

Also research companies and brokers are restricted by regulators in regards to sharing that information with retail investors (Yes us again!), which puts retail investors at an immediate disadvantage!

Simple formula - Less information available = worse investment decisions.

The investing industry is comprised of many different types of investors, from hedge funds to accredited investors to insurance companies (collectively institutional investors) all the way down to retail investors (Yes us again!)at the very bottom of the investing information chain!

Retail/individual investors in general are regarded as less knowledgeable, less disciplined and less skilful than institutional investors (fewer sources of the true facts available) so they are very seen as an easy catch and often presented with more risky investment opportunities!

Another fear for retail investors is that their naivety is preyed upon by larger brokerage firms who more often than not tend to practise "The Greater Fool Theory!"

The Greater Fool Theory

The idea that, regardless of the value of the stock, it will always sell as there will always be someone (a greater fool) who is willing to pay a higher price, so pump it up with slick presentations and predictions of "Bonanza Grades", (May be!,just don't let on to the "Reatalies", Tee Tee!)

In this case, the greater fool tends to be the retail investors (Yes us again)who don't know any better. Brokers can trick new/naive investors into buying stocks that the broker needs to sell, (Pay the media to pump it up with some predictions of "Bonanza grades"& Good times!" for a very high over-inflated price! (Tee Hee , some will lap it up it!)

Play on the retail investors lack of information & understanding! (That's us again!)

Especially of great concern for both the industry and investors is the type of promotional language used by companies (Junior miners in particular)when trying to persuade people to invest in their company!

Notice how It’s all in the interpretation: Tier One; world-class; spectacular results; ore; Capex…different companies are choosing to report these in different ways using different metrics, creating an imbalance in reporting, (Plenty of baloney!)

This imbalance is only heightened by companies increased desperation to survive: there are more companies needing financing than there is money being invested so too many companies tend to exaggerate their positions in a bid to 'win' exploit investors and their cash!

There's a lot of white noise in the industry: companies with different quality assess and different likelihood of success all say the same thing, making it extremely difficult to decide where and when to invest your money!

Cont-

Mr Gnome,

I appreciate the you are a former mining professional, however that said we all have own fields of expertise and experience in life.

I can't speak for the presence not of "Bonanza grades" in other mining operations but to be frank I wouldn't trust the statements on the future potential of the vast majority of the project by the mining companies management because all too often after they have conned the private investors out of their money and when finally the chickens come home to roost and the predicted "Bonanza Grades " turns out to be a crock of sh*t!, it's a case of "Oh well nothings certain in mining," unless your on the BOD that is !

So I won't get off the track or get emotive, So what was the point of Martin Horgan making the statement, I have a very good idea and to be fair it did achieve its intended purpose up to a point!

"We have identified a number of areas of narrow but very high grade zones that have the potential to add significantly to our 500,000oz per annum base case in the short to medium term. “ Martin Horgan

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/48335-centamin-ceo-predicts-a-gold-bonanza-at-sukari-mine-after-geological-re-assessment/

It certainly seems as though the "Bonanza grades" are imminent , not a 100 years away !

Paul ,

Firstly I'm not a qualified investment adviser so I;m not able to give any investment advice.

At the time there were all sorts of conflicting views about validity of the Liberum report, initially I thought it must be flawed because it was at other end of the scale in many respects in comparison to the company take and the majority of the corporate analysts opinions.

Although subsequently I learnt that the Liberum analyst who wrote the report is highly respected, and more often right than wrong, in fact some other analysts commented that it was a better report overall and more accurate than the majority of others at that time and as things panned out that does seem to be the case!

I have held shares in Centamin for longer than I care to remember and I have given the benefit of the doubt and accepted the company slant on things far too many times in the past and been let down on far too many occasions .

I've held shares in other all manner of companies where the shareholders hold the management to account almost on a daily basis and don't behave like a load of frighted rabbits or brainwashed sheeple that fear that any comment or question that may be construed as a criticism of the company faith will bring the company and the share price crashing down!

Well it hasn't as yet and I doubt it ever will!

Well I'm shareholder and as such will criticise and praise when I feel it is deserved and appropriate.

You may choose to forget but there were some very uncertain times in the past when I posted all manner very important factual clarifications and reassurances on all manner of certain points related to the Sukari licence and the accusations /rumours etc in the Eygptian media, I don't recall any moaning about my sources then!

How many on here have written to Centamin or telephoned and spoken to a member of management, less than the fingers on one hand!

Anyone can be whom so ever they desire to be on any internet forum Mr Bond.

Its seems your aversion to cut and paste as a method to disseminate internet links and information is selective dependant upon the handle of the poster.

It is pointless to make claims on any internet forum abut the numbers of shares held or brag about personal trading prowess because non of it can e substituted due to the anonymity of posters.

What can be substantiated though before anyone makes any investment decisions one way or the other is that Cenatmin is where it is because of past managements decisions to gloss over the true state of the Sukari mining operation by employing poor mining practice, that being prolonged high grading without instigating any waste ore processing.

Agreed Martin Horgan has now instigated fit for purpose mining methods, albeit at great cost but whether one is willing or not to admit it or not the Sukari operation still isn't as cheep to run as it once seemed under he previous management because after the last Q2 update it is apparent that the Sukari low grade problems are inherent and seem to have gotten worse rather than better meaning to mine and process every oz is far more expensive than hoped for by analysts and the market.

Just to be clear Martin Horgan's prediction of Bonanza grades seemed pretty certain rather than a "May be", but then it did reassure most investors after the Liberum rating of a Sell with an 83p SP valuation!

“We have identified a number of areas of narrow but very high grade zones that have the potential to add significantly to our 500,000oz per annum base case in the short to medium term. “ Martin Horgan

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/48335-centamin-ceo-predicts-a-gold-bonanza-at-sukari-mine-after-geological-re-assessment/

However that said at least the share price is up this morning for the time being , so lets hope that there will be more substantiated evidence of a sustainable turnaround with reduced AISC in the Q£ report, some Bonanza grades would be ideal!

How are you qualified to make such assumptions about me , not to mention embark on a tirade of unjustified and in some instances obnoxious and personal insults towards me.

You seem afraid to question the Centamin corporate slant on its strategy.?

Mr Henderson is more than likely aware of what I am getting at about the unsubstantiated claims Martin Horgan made about the discovered underground Bonanza grades.

Are you so afraid toe even question the purpose of such an announcement at such a time or are you suffering from "The Emperors new clothes syndrome'?

The central theme of Hans Christian Andersen's story of the Emperor's new clothes is that illusion depends at least in part on self-deception on the part of those being deceived. The Emperor and his courtiers pretend he is wearing clothes because they do not wish to appear foolish; in the end they look more so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G55Oq3oBls0

Your right Dasut , I was refereeing to the spare capacity from the freed up Capital plant, this was an option from the outset I was led to believe,

Not at weak Mr Bond because you are unable to corroborate your statements and accusations!

You know as well as any long term holder myself included that Sukari has an inherent low grades problem.although in the past this was glossed over by high grading and not clearing waste thus keeping AISC low and profits high!

The underground Bonanza grades predicted by Martin Horgan n 2021

“We have identified a number of areas of narrow but very high grade zones that have the potential to add significantly to our 500,000oz per annum base case in the short to medium term. “

Yet its 2024 and these Bonanza grades have proven to be elusive, in fact they have never materialised!

So as a shareholder I wonder was this announcement based on sound evidence or just wishful thinking and come about to try and counteract the effects at that time of the Liberum Sell rating with a share price valuation of 83p!

Q2 was a let down, that's why the share price dropped, the analysts seem to increasingly be concerned the huge costs of moving and precessing vast quantities of mediocre ore to achieve average profits after the AISC are taken out.

The truth is being glossed over and the management seems to be attempting to present an average performance as exceptional!

If this were school report it might read "Centamin shows some promise, but could do much better, more effort needed!"

Exactly the same applies to you Mr Bond, who can verify your true identity and why should anyone trust your posts when possibly you or mizolgit, or both have been created by A.i.?

There are some on very well respected and long term holders on here who if they so chose could verify that those people certainly do exist , although they wont disclose the identities of the people you doubt exists!

But then who knows even those members are maybe creations using A.I. ?

How can one trust in anything when even the predicted guidance with he long awaited turnaround or that a decision will be made in 2025 , or even the Sukari grades improve?

Are you prepared to guarantee any of these things?

Hi Dasut,

I agree regarding using any any spare Capital truck capacity, prior to the commencement of the waste clearance contract I was told by and a company representative that this was always a strong possibility, you may recall that I made the comment below after the RNS announcement that the waste clearance was nearing its end,

Seems very prudent, the company exchanges short-term additional investment for longer-term flexibility, might be regarded as "Making hay while the sun shines!"

In all after these updates Centamin does really compare well to its peers by continuing to pay dividends and still managing to invest in sustaining production!

Rifleman,

It's been the same for years now the Sukari operation is hobbled by the inherent low grade problems, its commercial viability is dependant upon a high gold price!

I asked an independent industry mining analyst their opinion on the reason for the dramatic share price drop just after the recent update.

They seemed to think it is mostly to do with the very low grades mined: 0.67 g/t Au for open pit mining and 3.3 g/t for underground which seem persistent with no sign of any improvement any time soon, so what happens to the profits should the gold price fall dramatically because at present its the only the high gold price that is covering a multitude of sins and enabling Sukari to remain in profit!

So does Martin Horgan have any plan to get over this Sukari low grade problem which may well be why some of the institutions managers are reducing their holdings?

Tibbs

Hi Market, great that you popped in , i hope that you are still getting your tot's and enjoying life!

I fear you have summed things up pretty well, the long term holders are still hoping that the predictions and promises will come true, no chance yet it seem I fear we may well have been had again!

Tibbs

Actually Mr Bond I was just having an unwind with a malt whisky after dinner party ,thought I would have a look on here in between watching the passing ships and the stars through my telescope on a nice clear night!

Quite so Mr Bond!

For years the establishment ran all sorts of campaigns to try and blacken the reputation of Andrew Maguire and brand him just another silly conspiracy theorist who was spreading rumours about the establishments precious metals markets price manipulation.

Well move onto the present time and Andrew Maguire has been completely exonerated and proven right!GB

0:34 / 48:48

India exploits FED’s rigged gold scam - LFTV Ep 183

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDjRZG47kEU

Calm down Mr Bond, no good getting worried until we know the facts!

All part of the course for Centamin shareholders, its a contrarian share to say the least that the market does seem to like to bash down!