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hi pal
good suggestion, i usually put the dates on my posts and the links, but your suggestion is excellent.
i don't plan listening in to the march 21st results but will await and see the media and market reaction over the following few days and then decide whether or not to listen to the actual recording.
like a number of other investors i see on a regular basis i remain cautiously optimistic about the approaching update, although i have a niggling feeling that it will more likely be a case of martin horgan running through a well rehe****d piece of sales spin of good times coming, but not quite yet for whatever reason, hope i'm mistaken of course!
i have long given up any hope of wearing the golden flip flops, most likely it's aldi plastic flip flops for now!
tibbs
off topic paul, but i thought but this may interest you, hope you are still enjoying your smallholding!
https://home.38degrees.org.uk/2023/02/07/seeds-for-bees-frequently-asked-questions/
https://justbeehoney.co.uk/products/free-bee-saving-seeds
A team of marine experts are set to start a treasure hunt for the most valuable shipwreck in history, which sank 400 years ago with £4 billion worth of gold on board. The Merchant Royal, a 17th-century English treasure ship known as "the El Dorado of the seas", sank near the Isles of Scilly in 1641 while carrying treasure from Mexico.
In 2019, a huge anchor was found off the coast of Cornwall, believed to be from the Merchant Royal. Now, a team from Cornish company Multibeam Services are joining forces with former local fishermen to find the wreck and its treasure.
They're starting their mission in April and believe they'll be the ones to find it using unmanned underwater vessels and new sonar tech. They plan to spend all of 2024 searching for the wreck in a 200 square mile area of the English Channel.
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/experts-launch-hunt-lost-treasure-9175019
Hi Dasut,
I hadn't realised your aversion to cutting and pasting informati , if you care to think back there wasn't any sensitivity or aversion to cut and pastes of all manner of information from fellow members whilst the court case and other manner of unforeseen troubles had befallen Centamin.
Possibly its also worth taking into account that not all shareholders consult the detailed and possibly daunting reports to the less experienced eye on the Centamin home page and find it useful to be able to dip into the most relevant parts via an internet chat forum.
I am a a loss as to how else I could share the email replies of the emails I received other than cutting and pasting.
l understand that this is a Centamin forum, but my point was retail shareholders are in the main treated with scant regard by the vast majority company CEO's and BOD and all too often presented with slick PR presentations predicting fantastic returns to reel them but that that all too often fail to deliver!
I am unable to share your confidence that Centamin is being entirely transparent to retail investors, from past experience I see every reason to remain cautiously sceptical for the time being.
Whilst Centamin has gone through hugely expensive four year reset, as yet we are yet to see some proof in the pudding as it were , I am still wondering will the March update delight or disappoint ,that is the burning question.
As I have expressed in the past and as you are no doubt aware there are many other market factors and certainly now more than ever worldwide political uncertainties and policies of aggression meaning that even what may be perceived as reliable stable or safe West African jurisdictions might well become quite different very rapidly.
I am sure that I am not alone in hoping that these initial Doropo exploration reports turn out to be reliable and you are right about the payback time and the commercial viability,
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
-Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP, for example, driven by a failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures or a material slowdown in GDP growth
-Structural Features: Renewed deterioration in political stability or aggravation of security incidents, for example, a flare-up of political violence
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-cote-d-ivoire-at-bb-outlook-stable-02-02-2024
Hi 3bear,
To be honest I don't see either as being low risk, but I think Egypt has less risk of insurgency, although the economy is in a mess and the political suppression isn't good!
I'm still not convinced about Doropo pay back time, too many unknown factors!
Cont-
The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari,
, with deposit grades ranging from ~1.0g/t to 1.7g/t, depending on the way the pit optimisation were run it will have generated open pit shells from those deposits (albeit using updated drilling data from the PFS). The grade dispersion will vary with the geology and the drilling information/density. As such, portions of those pits will be at lower grades and in the Inferred Resource category.
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
My remarks on lies and innuendo weren't specifically at Centamin but on the way the whole stock market industry operates.
Doropo
I,m not at all convinced that this area is politically stable or will remain free from some sort of incursion from rebel groups .
As to the reports I remain suspicious that the projects will turn out to be more expensive than is being estimated and although a three year payback is envisioned and would be ideal the reality of that remains to be seen.
You may find this information from Centamin of interest-
In response to your first email around the purpose of the update.
• Earlier in the year we had committed to updating the market on the Doropo pre-feasibility study ("PFS"), the announcement was following through on that with an update of the various work streams and their various stages of completion.
• The update also enabled us to communicate the following:
o Firstly, that we had identified an opportunity to make significant capital and operating cost savings within the processing circuit.
o Secondly that in pursuing this opportunity publication of the PFS was being deferred until we had completed the necessary test work to evaluate the cost saving opportunity, to ensure we published the most comprehensive PFS based on available data.
• Finally, the update was also necessary to communicate the updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”), which demonstrated a significant improvement in grade from the preliminary economic assessment ("PEA")
As mentioned in the recent full year results, we look forward to publishing the results of the completed PFS in June this year.
In response to the second
The grades in the MRE update are correct. The data was prepared by and under the supervision of the Group Qualified Persons, Howard Bills, Group Exploration Manager, Craig Barker, Group Mineral Resource Manager, and Mike Millad, the independent Qualified Person from Cube Consulting Pty Ltd. All are geoscientists who fulfil the requirements of being a "Qualified Person(s)" under the CIM Definition Standards.
In the June 2021, we published the PEA MRE and in November 2022 we published an update. Historically the Inferred Resource grade was at 1.13g/t, and this was updated to 1.14g/t. Previously the Mineral Resources were unconstrained (at any gold price, which is not unusual for an early stage study). When we published the November 2023 update, the Mineral Resources were constrained within US$2,000/oz open pit shells to outline the scale of the Mineral Resource that has the potential to become economically viable to extract at our reserve evaluation gold price of US1450/oz. This is a more rigorous approach involving the application of the Reasonable Prospects for Eventual Economic Extraction ("RPEEE") criterion reflected in most current reporting codes. The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari
Hi Razor's,
The Blackrock increase is on a CFD basis, so on leverage , no long term commitment to Centamin , Blackrock have no morals or integrity, they would trade in anthrax or nuclear waste if they thought they could make a quick profit!
Somnamma,
I appreciate that traders point of view is very different to that of an investor, traders and indeed computor driven logarithms care not a jot about whether those making claims on behalf of the company are being truthful, or if they have any integrity because their prime objective is to maximise their quick profit or return out of fluctuations or spikes in the share price of a particular company that is a result of more often than not claims of future guidance without any sound evidence to substantiate them and once the farce is realised the same traders likely then take short positions in order to makefile from the company share price going into free-fall.
To state that looking back is just history and no longer relevant is preferable for a trader because they have no interest on the long prospects of the company, just a quick profit from a spike in share price which likely turns out to be unjustified and based on some unsubstantiated claim from a company director whose priority is to gloss over the flaws in the company strategy draw their bonuses and fill their boots with swag then likely once the truth evident move on to another company where they will repeat scam and screw the next lot of what they regard as gullible investors!
This what is wrong with the whole market system, it exists on the basis of lies and innuendo, rather then integrity and sustainable sound and reliable long term performance.
As the market system to a large extent is based around charts and data of historical performance so then surely any investor should base their decisions to a large extent understanding the historical fundamentals and sustainable performance potential of a company, rather then short term data based on unsubstantiated claims that are more akin to wishful thinking.
An investor should be able to buy shares in a company put the certificates in drawer and forget about them for the long term reasonably confident that they will appreciate, unlike traders whose only interest is a quick profit over the shortest possible period.
If anyone is wondering what the future share price may be then they need to appropriate the reasons why it is where it is today are factors such the cost of the very generous ongoing profit share agreement and that the contribution from the underground is crucial to supplement the unreliable and mediocre open pit grades.
Any hope of some decent rise rise in share price from increased guidance and lower AISC is directly related to the efficiency of the underground operation.
As yet their is little to substantiate the hopes/claims for the Doropo site which might turn out to be reasonable of it could be an expensive failure, as yet on what is known will have little positive effect on the future share price.
It is a great mistake o assume that there is going to be any substantial increase in share price until some proof of ongoing lower AISC and reliable and improved guidance is delivered,
The 2012 Centamin annual report the management were well aware of the significance of the underground workings and the need to develop them so that the higher underground grades could be used to compensate for the inerrant low grade problems of the open pit
See Centamin at a glance , overview – What Sets Us Apart para 1.
"In particular, the underground mine and regional
prospects offer significant potential to define further
resources."
See also 4. * An experienced team
* (Bunch of shyster's!)
Centamin’s management team and Board of Directors have considerable expertise in the gold mining industry. **
**(So they were fully aware then of the dangers of long term high grading?)
This ranges from the early stage identification of deposits,project financing, construction and development, to the operating of large mines.
Some of the leadership team has been based at Sukari for almost a decade, taking it from an early stage exploration project to the operating gold mine it is today. ***
***(Including an Elraghy brother who used to be a Cairo copper with a police academy certificate in post as Sukari general manager?)
Yet despite this claimed expertise within this BOD and management instead of acting responsibly by developing the underground operation they disregarded sound mining practice and went for a what they knew was a very high risk strategy of high grading the open pit for over half decade glossing over the truth for short term gain withoutv thought for long term consequences !
On the link below go to the top line then select Archive , then go to page numbers at the bottom scroll back to page 06 2012 annual repott
https://www.centamin.com/investors/results-reports/?year=archive
I appreciate that some may find it boring to read through these retrospective reports , but that said much of the detail makes it obvious all the things that Martin Horgan recognised needed doing on his arrival needed doing half a decade before, had they been then things would be very different now!
Strange isn't it how Trump claims that everything American is so superior, yet he choose to ignore that not the USA internal airline system near falling to bits but that Boeing aircraft have also been discarding parts of their fuselage in flight over many years!
As part of my research re the timing of Josef's share disposals I asked Kees Dekker for hie thoughts and to be frank I feel that his opinion is likely one of the most valid and concerns the long term effects upping of the profit share to 50% and the parasitical effect of this which an awful lot of people myself included never seemed to fully appreciate !
07/2018
Hello T,
I suspect that it will be very difficult to prove insider trading by Mr El Raghy. As you point out management until recently did not appear to see problems coming. So how did Mr El Raghy see that?
I think proving otherwise will be nigh impossible!
What he must have seen coming is sharing the net free cash flow 50/5o, but this any shareholder should have seen coming as it was never a secret.
kind regards,
Kees
Hi Somnamma,
I did write to the company on several occasions re the timing of Josef's share sales, even tried via the company secretary to gets questions raised at the AGM, but this didn't happen?
I have a file of the various explanations from the company, in many respects they all seemed plausible although that said any opinion on the rationale behind theses sales does depend whether you are a retail investor or a member of the BOD !
If you recall Marmot, he offered some thoughts about 5 million share disposal LSE 07/2018
There is nothing significant in a regulatory sense about his shareholding at 4.67% today vs. 6% before the sales.
But leaving aside speculation about personal financial decisions there are several points about his stake which may be significant.
Firstly, although CEY has 1.15bn shares in issue almost half, 575m shares are held by 8 Co's and one individual. The May presentation on the CEY website reports that there were 9 large shareholders with holdings of 2.7% or more, owning 50.8% of the shares in issue. Even after his recent sale Josef El Raghy still ranks 3rd largest shareholder with 4.67% behind fund managers Blackrock 12.9% and Van Eck with 11.9%.
After the court case is resolved I think it reasonable to expect that some of these institutional shareholders will increase their stakes and others will take new holdings.
As the price rises and more holders become strong hands it will get more difficult to build stake of 2%-4% without bidding up the price. I expect Josef's stake to drop down from 3rd largest in the future as other institutions take 5% or larger stakes.
Perhaps these share sales were requested by some institutional buyers keen to get a slice before the court case was resolved.
Over the last few weeks Josef's 17.6m share sales have released 1.53% of the issued share capital back into the free float market.
I think one point worth noting is that all the sales came from Nordana Pty fund which Josef controls.
He has kept all of his and family trust shares.
So it is conceivable that Nordana was set up as a vehicle designed specifically to fund another opportunity? Perhaps if one comes up in Egypt?
Marmot
Hi Paul,
although I didn't put it in the last post along with some other shareholders in 2014 I attended the general meeting in Jersey in 2014 along , at that meeting Josef made several claims that turned out to be a complete crock!
Kees is a very experienced mining analyst and for a while he sent out analysis that looked beneath the surface of various miners reports which was free of charge retail investors , through that forum several friends of mine were able to avoid getting reeled in to several investments that were base on pie on the sky publicity that turned out to be complete money pits although some of the members did very well by following some of Kees's tips.
Due to the amount consultancy work Kees could no longer spare the time to continue with his monthly new sheet although he still does some analysis for https://www.cruxinvestor.com/
As pointed out by Kees in 2015,2018 Sukari and to the present time the Sukari underground operation that is so crucial to to viability of the operation.
Thank you 3 bear for your thoughts,
In the past I posted information from conversations with a well informed and well meaning acquaintance I whom I saw on the train on a regular basis, much of the information was very useful in dispelling misunderstanding and myths regarding the dispute regarding accusations over original Sukari concession agreement and on the accuracy of the press releases by the previous Sukari general manager in the Eygptian media.
Unfortunately though some of the information given to me by my acquaintance in good faith on their part then proved to be unreliable which was disappointing to say the least for all concerned and some members on here then criticised me for posting it and accused me of being too positive about the company.
In 2016 after concerns had been raised in the mining media regarding the seemingly inherent poor quality grade problems in the open pit I called Andrew Pardey and expressed my concerns as a shareholder, Andrew Pardey assured me that the analysts media article was based on inaccurate data and that the vain of low grades were only temporary and they would soon be through into much higher grades, he also assured that high grading was carried out in most mines on a temporary basis and all was well managed in the Sukari operation, sadly subsequent events prove this was a complete "Crock" the CEO had lied to me.
In 2018 much the same problems occurred only it was even worse this time because the poor open pit grades couldn't be supplemented by the higher underground grade because Andrew Pardey failed to oversee Bariminco the underground contactor properly who had allowed the sole LHDR to self destruct without any contingency plan or spare parts available , this was supposedly to save costs, although the result was an RNS warning of reduced guidance!
After this I again spoke with Andrew Pardey who assured me that lessons had been learnt, that these unexpected occurrences happen, but that lessons had been learnt and new methods and an additional LHDR had been ordered to mitigate any future interruptions to guidance!
Then what happens in 2020, I think you know that!
I'm afraid until i have some proof the verdict is still out on the new management and as to any ftse companies CEO's or BOD most of them are only in it to fill their saddle bags with swag and then ride off elsewhere leaving the shareholders to pay the bill, I trust them all as much as I would trust a rattle snake at a lucky dip!
Obviously everyone must make their own decisions based on their own research , but just be wary of the accuracy of the information that is made available!
Tibbs
A gold and silver supply shortage may coincide with an economic downturn and how investors can prepare for coming challenges by switching to sound money.
https://tinyurl.com/d5f6pacc
A trusted acquaintance forwarded the piece below to me,I appreciate it's cut and paste but I didn't see the point of rewriting it and its is some news about Centamin so it should at least keep some of the forum members at least half happy!
Egypt, Regional Exploration
Upon completing successful screening programs, the Fatiri and Atalla licenses were relinquished after indications of large mineralized systems were not observed.
Exploration programs are progressing on the Hamash-Sukari, where initial observations from the first phase exploration program have identified
features that are indicative of elevated prospective, including fertile intrusive s and a major, multikilometer, structural corridor associated with extensive alteration along extensional flexures.
An airborne geophysical survey is planned early in 2024 to support the generation of the first set of prioritized targets or drill testing.
https://tinyurl.com/ycx9bseu
Barrick has decided to dispose of quite a lot of Egyptian real estate all at once - and that without the modern geotechnical techniques to 'hunt for elephants' as Bristow likes to say - but noticeably staying with the concessions nearest Sukari which possibly indicates an interest in a future consolidation with Centamin?
Thank you for the reply Mr Bond,
My agenda as you put it is to encourage others to look a bit deeper into the finer detail of what they are being spoon fed rather than just accepting it on face value through their rose coloured glasses.
To enable any debate there needs to be different views and opinions on the subject in question, there wouldn't be any debate or any point of discussion forums like this if everyone just accepts the same corporate rhetoric.
What I find amusing is that you assume that I only have a small holding, my holding is such that I certainly don't feel guilty about speaking out, but that said its not the value of the shares which is my main cause of anger but the fact that share holders have been taken for mushroom's (Being kept in the dark whilst having loads of crap tipped on them) and have been misled and lied to on more than one occasion by the management.
Fair comments Tornado,
Unfortunately there is something still not right, the share price is a joke if the claimed potential of the company is true , likely one overriding factor is the loss of confidence, Centamin still hasn't shaken off the ghosts of it's past.
I'm bored with slick fast talking presentations going over much of what has already been said before, ,what's needed now is some proof of reliable guidance, reduced AISC and before too long the reinstatement of a decent dividend. deliverable.
I hope I am wrong, but I am expecting not a lot!
Mr Henderson,
I have written to those making the accusations and if they supply the proof then I shall forward it on the appropriate authorities for them to deal with .
I see no point in contacting Centamin as I have no faith they will take it seriously.
Shame but despite being a sizeable shareholder for over a decade I think there is some truth in Rebess's opinion Centamin is far too cosy with the Eygptian Mobb
Tibbs