25p plus imo, read why below ⬇️12 Jul 2025 12:30
right. let’s have some proper analysis of sats.
they are clearly going to raise a **** tonne of cash from proper institutions. i reckon £1-300m.
presumably they will then smash buy a load of bitcoin which will probably make them the uk’s biggest treasury company.
utxo are a side issue here, their involvement often helps at seed stage as their experience aids with funding and growing a fledgling treasury company.
however with parafi capital on board, sats immediately skips that fledgling stage, they jump straight in to the top tier. they consistently raise 9 figure sums and are highly respected amongst the crypto community.
so what happens to the valuation after that? and what about the subsequent fundraising?
let’s look at some precedents.
naka, bmnr and sbet seem the most obvious ones.
naka raised $710m at $1.12, spiked to $25, settled at $13.
bmnr raised $250m at $4.50, spiked to $130 and settled at $45.
sbet (parafi backed) raised $425m at $6.15.. spiked to $120, settled at $10/15 but is rising rapid now each day.. currently $21
i can’t believe institutions will commit to a 9 figure fundraise without a clear strategy and path forwards in relation to fundraising.
i wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of atm arrangement and then some mstr style preference shares.
this genuinely could be the uk’s version of mstr and we are at the absolute ground floor, before even the first proper fundraise…
there is room for both swc and sats to thrive and prosper in the uk market (swc is and will continue to be my biggest holding).
swc i would expect will continue to be wildly successful but will follow a simpler, more conservative path of raising straight equity with no debt and accumulate substantial amounts of bitcoin, whilst sats may take a more aggressive route, raising more money more quickly but with leverage and debt, so will appeal to investors with a higher risk/reward appetite.
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