Member Info for MrHumble

Are SING here now?

LOOOOOOOL

Back on next RNS ping. I'm sure it will be a beauty lol

Adieu

I can't see all the structures having no convertible options. It would be financial suicide 'unless' there is more to be seen, post any signing.

If they were to sign off pre a cash raise, i doubt investor level detail requirements would be available.

Of course that's just the 240M

Ethiopia Inflation Rate:

Circa 13%

Ethiopia Central Bank Policy Rate:

15% as of June 2025

Conservative Estimate: 22-25%

Base Ethiopian commercial rate (18%) + country/sector premiums (4-7%)

Optimistic Scenario: 18-22%

If development bank participation provides some rate relief

Market Check:

Given that other Ethiopian gold mining companies are paying 15-25% on various loan structures, KEFI's traditional debt facility would likely need to be in the 20-25%

The 240 million debt facility. Does not say if convertible (in official paper), or traditional finance. Given inflation in Ethiopia, an interest rate would be cash intensive. But still wont be convertible? Even if pay in gold, high rate i guess

KEFI's debt facility would almost certainly carry interest rates in the low-to-mid 20% range, making it expensive capital despite avoiding the equity dilution of convertible structures if it is not an option.

Have a great day all. Id green box SP if i were you

MrH

Ethiopia's inflation (costs) seems to be way outpacing gold prices

Financial Pressures from Convertible Loans

The most prominent example of these pressures comes from Akobo Minerals, a Scandinavian-Ethiopian gold company operating the Segele mine. The company has been heavily reliant on convertible loan financing:

Recent Convertible Loan Activity:

In November 2024, Akobo secured NOK 25.3 million through an unsecured convertible loan from existing and new investors Akobo Minerals secures NOK 25.3 million in new funding through a convertible loan - Akobo Minerals AB

The loan offers a 20% yearly interest rate and the opportunity to convert the loan into equity at a 15% discount Akobo to secure NKr30m convertible loan

The company finalized a debt restructuring agreement where conversion of bridge loans and convertible loans into new shares would be at the same price as in private placements Akobo finalises debt restructuring agreement

Financial Strain Indicators:

The high 20% interest rate on convertible loans indicates significant financial pressure and risk perception

Multiple rounds of convertible financing suggest ongoing cash flow challenges

The company required minimum new funding of US$3.5 million through various instruments including convertible structures Akobo Minerals and Monetary Metals agree on revised gold loan terms | African Mining Market

Impact on Operations

These financial pressures create several challenges for Ethiopian gold mining companies:

Dilution Risk: Converting loans to equity at discounted rates dilutes existing shareholders

High Cost of Capital: The 20% interest rates significantly increase operational costs

Refinancing Cycles: Companies become trapped in cycles of needing new convertible loans to service existing debt

The situation reflects broader challenges in Ethiopia's mining sector, where companies are struggling to balance ambitious expansion plans with sustainable financing structures. While the government promotes mining as a key economic driver, individual companies face significant capital constraints that force them into expensive convertible debt arrangements.

Awful day ahead . Crash helmets advised,

2 posts.

-95%

It's been a pleasure meeting you all. Not only were all my expectations met, but exponentially surpassed. The IQ on display has been immense. Learned lots, thank you and goodbye

MrH

A bit slow are we?

GLA

Most financiers and risk assessors require long term stability. I was impressed with Kefi's June 2022 financing progress during only a humanitarian truce.

Anyone notice anything different about the June 2022 structure and the September 2025 structure? And why?

There will be a few there alright

I must go now. As much as we have all entertained each other, I have to start work tonight, not Monday morning.

GLA

Thanks for the details.

If you are selling 100% super high risk , much more likely to lose than win speculation, that's cool. But say that. What i am reading around the media's, is like an already signed super profit, assured resource, low to no dilution deal - and as if already done. Hilarious

You wouldn't want to be pinning hopes on that. The traders and makers will f mince y'all haha

Have you ever worked risk desks guys? In insurance or actuary at funds etc? It's is as obvious you have not, no more than I have. Best go have a chat with them, and then yourselves.

What exactly are you recommending as a buy bulls? What actual details?

Indeed indecision may affect some. Does not take much for me to make a decision. Aligned variables with x price. I dont even have to think about it really.

Civil War Period: November 2020 - November 2, 2022 ( military operation appears to have begun around November 4) Raise on 16th of November but not related lol.

Ive looked at raises and updates mid war, so no real point in claiming civil war delayed mine financing claims pre Nov 2020, nor during it, or after

7 years is a long time ...

If he gets this finance structure over the line, what was the price?

This latest financing announcement needs to be viewed against the plc track record of similar promises. Let's look at the pattern: a portion.

2018:CEO announced they had 'formally mandated a bond arranger' for $160 million of Listed Infrastructure Bonds. That was 7 years ago.

2019-2024: Multiple interviews discussing 'imminent' financing completions and construction starts that never materialized.

2025: Now we're hearing about a $240 million debt facility that will 'definitely' close this time.

The fundamental question: If this project was so viable and the management so capable, why has it taken over 7 years since that first 'formal mandate' for bonds? Why have multiple financing announcements failed to translate into actual funding?

The market's recent decline in share price suggests investors are pricing in significant execution risk, no?

Now let's ponder why this could get signed off, maybe, not so sure though

The structure - Who benefits? Who carries the risk?