Member Info for MrCareful

In a summary of the ASX index this morning it was reported Northern Star Resources plunged 4.5% after cutting its FY25 guidance due to operational challenges. I don’t have time to follow this up at the moment so would welcome to hear if there is anything GGP shareholders can learn from their results.

What a damning indictment to be made public! Time for the US to exert further pressure if they can.

On the other side of the production coin; China is considering halting tariffs on certain US imports, signaling a shift toward de-escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest oil consumers. Additionally, the US imposed new restrictions earlier this week on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping. An increase in quotas may allow legal exports of Kurdy oil without eating into Iraq's own oil production too much.

.....Somebody seems to think so?

25-Apr-25 08:31:33 158.70 102,118 Buy* 157.20 158.20 162.06k O

It gives % of short and the date it changed

As previously stated Shorts currently active for GGP:

ActusRayPartners Limited 0.25% 2 Oct 2024

https://www.shortdata.co.uk/company.php?isin=GB00B15XDH8

BAD if you are in the GDXJ Rebalance team!

Ye an attractive bond rate during lower interest rates but I wouldn’t commit 200k. I am quite happy in my purchase of Genel shares which have over the past 15 days gone up about 18% ! Also looking forward to a lot more upside!

Agree.... Though when the oil flows I expect it to run beyond £1 but for now I would like to know which broker has a target of 105p ?

Does anybody know the broker that has given a forecast for Genel with a target price of 105p ?

A good rise despite the negative views of the 3 posters this morning and that there is no news on the ITP. Not even a meeting in sight!

I take it the 92p target is that forecast by Canaccord Genuity with Speculative Buy on the day of the Full Year results . Please would you give me the details for the other broker forecast? Thanks

Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/830471/iraqi-parliament-to-discuss-resumption-of-kurdistan-region-oil-exports

I’m as confident about where Genel is now as I’ve been for a while, with a strong balance sheet, exciting new territory and at least some visibility in Kurdistan the future is evidently positive. Now, admittedly the pipeline is not yet open yet but my read of the situation is that everyone with an interest in it has a good reason to make it happen.

The frequency of the meetings concerning the pipeline has increased, if it’s not either Government in the region it might be the US or someone lobbying for the IOC’s concerned. To me it seems that one way or another parties want to get something done, not just a contract but a proper payment process and with agreement between Baghdad and Erbil, watch this space.

Readers know that I am a very big fan of Oman as a venue for investment in the Middle East and I congratulate Genel on their getting into Block 54, my contacts out there confirm the view that getting in at all is not easy but they have made a cracking start. I think that the big takeaway from the deal is that it’s not just a quick grab and see what happens, I see it as a genuine investment which ideally can become a major part of Genel’s portfolio with fantastic long term appeal.

As part of the M&A process, the company has launched a new bond issue, quite how much they raise is unknown, around $100m would be enough to give a bit of a boost to expansion plans but they aren’t going mad, just enough to de-risk the debt balance and no one wants to be over exposed at the wrong time in these markets…

I have not mentioned production or pricing, it’s been well documented and whilst the company has done remarkably well under the circumstances, it may just be that when the pipeline is open again there remains a local market selling crude to refineries nearby.

I have no hesitation in keeping Genel in the Bucket List, I’m really confident that management are right on the case with the day to day but looking further out with regards M&A and in dealings with the KRG which I think bodes well for the company.

Https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/1901725166041977257

Iraq and Turkey discussed renewing the Ceyhan pipeline agreement and the possibility of extending it south to boost Iraq’s crude export capacity and reach European markets.

https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Iraq-Turkiye-discuss-extending-Ceyhan-oil-pipeline

"Iraq Looks to Kurdistan’s Pipeline to Boost Basra Oil Exports to Turkey"

The Iraqi Oil Minister said that the Kurdistan Region will soon resume oil exports through the Turkish Ceyhan Port, adding that "there is a possibility of increasing oil from Basra oil through this pipeline."

Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani made the remarks at a meeting of the Iraqi-Turkish joint committee attended by members of the Iraqi ministries, the ministry said in a statement. https://peregraf.com/en/news/8567

Oil firms operating in Iraqi Kurdistan invited to key meeting

https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/oil-firms-operating-in-iraqi-kurdistan-invited-to-key-meeting/

At least the Tuesday meeting is still going ahead though no news from APIKUR that they have accepted.

But we could get IOC’s attending independently like they supposedly did on Sunday according to reports on X.

News with a decent link. Iraq to Announce Resumption Date for Kurdistan Region Oil Exports Within HoursNews with a fairly known link!Iraq’s Oil Minister announced that the government will disclose the exact date for the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region through the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) to Türkiye’s Ceyhan port in the next few hours.

During a visit to the port of Khur Zubair in Basra, the minister confirmed that exports will initially restart at 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) and will gradually increase until reaching the quota specified in Iraq’s general budget.

https://peregraf.com/en/news/8540

Ok Putup, I left you out, sorry! Your analysis still had an April opening I think?