Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

Stevo - you are very negative?

Lease liabilities are essentially OPEX.

I’m struggling to see what you think could be accelerated beyond clearing the actual debt (which ENQ have been clear they are not targeting in the near term)

https://en.portnews.ru/news/340158/

I’m expecting a clear SH returns plan on the Feb update where they normally set out hedges, budgets and forecast for the year.

I would like to see a mix of buy backs and dividend along with a plan for growing production over the next 10 years. Should keep some headroom for opportunities as they arise.

I hope the board are not relying on HE1 shares to get out of gaol with shareholders. Now 5p….touted by Chrissy Perkins at 8p (and 21p) as a bargain. What a guy.

Jan - yes there are plenty of diesel heaters and generators out there!

Therapist

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-industrial-gas-to-oil-switch-stifled-by-capacity-constraints-2022-12-01/

I read earlier in the year that a major obstacle would be actually getting oil to the power station. All sorts of environmental and logistical hurdles. Gas fired plants hang off the end of a pipeline and the infrastructure to get the liquid fuel rate in is not there.

We don’t have oil fired in the U.K. except in Shetland and Lewis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Oil-fired_power_stations_in_Europe_by_country

1.5kbpd of that increase is gas going by the OGA dashboard. Up from average of 2kboepd to 3.5kboepd at magnus. Will be interesting to see the November numbers.

So we are making an extra £280k per day just from the extra gas in that well. Total from Magnus gas £680k per day.

£194 per boe.

“OPEC+ member Nigeria has said the group wants to keep prices above $90.”

Let the good times role

The poo trajectory is still up in the air and likely to be volatile. ENQ sp is pricing this in IMHO. If POO calms down or the narrative change is sustained then we will rise with POO.

A couple of days of positive headlines won’t release the SP.

AIM - we don’t need to pay off debt any quicker. We hit our target level in a couple of months, and hedging ensures that the next 12 months costs (capex, abex, GE payment and potentially a dividend or buy backs) can be funded out of future cash flows.

There is no reason to sell assets. If anything I can see us buying.

EP could be sold of course - maybe worth $100m? However I expect it to stay with ENQ for a new project (possibly Bentley).

Stevo - you are not aligned with the company. Target debt level is 0.5x ebitda

I guess you didn’t read the article then QfO

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-12/it-s-time-for-biden-to-unleash-his-mega-oil-trade

I don’t think China care much about rising cases / deaths now

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/468511/ping-petroleum-avalon-oilfield-north-sea/

Enq sp usually does very well December / January

2017/18 went from 22p to 35p
2018/19 - flat
2019/20 went from 18p to 29p
2020/21 went from 11p to 24p
2021/22 - flat

Agreed Gurun. OPEC are not playing a traders game and responding to daily price movements. They will likely reduce output if the POO remains low after these shocks have worked through a bit. That said, Russia may call a meeting or unilaterally cut output in the short term.

Fact is they want higher prices.

SPR also expected to be refilled at around the current WTI price.

Overall there is little downside now IMHO.

Yes, oil and gas bashing is something everyone can get behind. Actually persuading people to reduce their standard of living by drastically reducing their own oil and gas use is a much harder prospect!!

All these people hand wringing over the environment still drive their cars, take foreign holidays , eat food out of season, wear designer clothes etc etc etc. all fueled by oil with no near term replacements.

For anyone interested…generally a sensible view of the move to green IMHO

https://youtu.be/BvQC3Qly_as

Hi Dumbly. Yes a “tax to far” as I think Deirdre called it.

I disagree on the licensing round telling us much. It’s cheap to apply for and hold onto these licences, and any development would likely be beyond 2028 for awards next year.

The big test will be the budgets announced for next year and the big investment decisions like Rosebank and cambo.

With ENQ, part of me feels there could be opportunities in this. Maybe some bargain acquisitions - big high cost operators will hit their economic limit sooner, but ENQ could pick these up and squeeze out a bit more.

Or maybe go for a low cost development plan at Bentley with EP, or tie back Bressay to AK. I am ok with ENQ spending on the U.K. (and reducing EPL) if it has the added benefit of extending the life or reducing unit costs of existing production

Yes indeed. All legal unfortunately and facilitated by a passive / unsophisticated shareholder base.

Of course it is morally repugnant.