Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

Hi John, I can see some progress on Perth / Scott happening in Q1. And I hope something announced for renewables - I'll need to give the annual report and see if there is any mood music.

SP wise, it's anyone's guess. If it's a cold winter in europe I could see it above 40p, if perth farm out is announced then 50p, and if renewables plan is revealed then 55p.

AIMHO

Oilman - not worth it at 13p a share IMHO as they would be taking on Enquest debt and end up in the same position - one thing I will say for Enquest is they are not a bad operator when it comes to getting the best out of assets. Bad luck and bad development projects has led them to this point

It's the debt that is killing this as an investment. It's a debt zombie with banks trying to squeeze out what they can before bashing it over the head. And just a few mug shareholders that can't bring themselves to admit the fact.

Meanwhile the debt pile is growing. Enquest are living on the never never IMHO.

PR - I say now because this is inevitable (if POO does not save the day). Selling production is selling assets (as I say that is an option but). The banks are going to be talking to enquest now, not waiting until midnight on October the 31st or whenever the final balloon payment is due.

You stated that debt was not due to be repaid for 3 years which is wrong and misleading.

Pellet - it is an easy calculation to work out what cash will be available to pay off the debt at $45 and $50.

Enquest can't get close IMHO.

On that basis equity is going to have to take a massive hit to get the company back on something a bit more like an even keep.

Imagine a $150 million dollar raise next year. Then you have 2 years to generate one billion dollars for the bonds.

PR - that is your emphasis on NOW.

The fact is that at current oil prices, and all projections I have seen for next year, enquest come up against a hard deadline in October next year when the final payment is due. They need to raise funds in the next 10 months IMHO.

Looking at the bond prices it is clear that new bonds or bank debt are not achievable IMHO. The only option would be to raise funds from shareholders or start selling assets at knock down prices...

a sale of the company is very unlikely IMHO, though might offer the best way to get a small gain from these sp levels.

The problem is you are talking about a debt that was built up to support bad developments that have not been able to pay back the debt as originally intended.

Debt is good if your project works out. Alma / Galia has ruined this company. It was a project for a world that does not exist (a world of $100 plus oil). Kraken is not a complete failure but it has not met expectations either.

Now banks and bondholders need to decide if there is a future for Enquest. Can they get their money back, and in what timeframe. The bond price gives you your answer.

Only if oil gets to $70 ivans

Ariel - if you can't handle another view then don't log on to a public board. You post your positive spin and I'll post as I see it.

RF - as I have said - even more investment (new processing plant, new section of pipeline) is needed to connect that customer (once it is sanctioned and installed). It is years away IMHO.

If that was not bad enough the "new customer" is actually the same customer we just disconnected for not paying their bills!!!

RF - yes you are right the costs are sunk.

The infrastructure and customers have some value, but the fact is that VOG is loss making and doesn't have a credible path to profitability. Bleeding cash every day on debt and money going out to foo.

Even foo saw that and came out with those crazy schemes of VOG charging mobile phones or some such!

You couldn't make this stuff up. Agree with the comments being made today. Paying customers needed and I just can't see where they are coming from.

Drills are far too expensive. Hundreds of millions spent by VOG and a failing business to show for it.

AiMHO of course

Ariel - I didn't say we? Other than talking about the differences between Cperking and my view.

I stand by what I said...helium one investment is tiny and SCIR will end up diluted to nothing IMHO. They have already lost a vast amount of what they have put in!!! Need a 5 bagger there just to get their (your!) Money back!

Seems like a gamble on getting a favourable sale of ruvuma which as I have said, seems like a long shot given the state of the world and the recent RNS?

A fund raising is now inevitable IMHO.

If we are generous and average POO in 2021 at $50 then enquest default on the RCF in October 2021.

Fundraise of $300 million kicks the can 2 years down the road when close to a billion will be needed to pay off the bonds.

The top man loves debt, but his creditors don't love enquest.

Cperkins - that is where we differ.

The chance of helium 1 drills resulting in an increase in asset value is small, and if it does our stake is not huge. go away and look at the CoS for these drills. SCIR will only get money in from H1 if it sells shares, or eventually through dividends. All that is years off if they want to get back more than they put in.

You know my opinion on the likelihood of a sale of ruvuma within the next 12 months. Again, more money going out to fund the work program. Monetisation years off.

Hmm, appeal to authority (and malcy at that....)

Lots happening in terms of money going out of the coffers...no hope of money coming in or assets increasing in value.

Hi Ariel - what news is it you are expecting?

The RNS seems to close off all options that could cause a re-rate any time soon? Backed into a corner in this war of attrition.

Yes it looks like a period of little news is on the way. Possible the SP will drip down as cash is burned with little progress.

Could the BOD pull off a deal for production? They didn't cover themselves in glory last time they tried and it will be very difficult to obtain funds in the Covid world with terrible commodity prices and uncertainty about the energy transition.

SoB - All feasible and economical, but technically not trivial to take sour fluids back to Scott, and there will be capital expenditure that you wouldn't have if it were sweet.

It has all been studied though and found to be a goer so matters not.

Flying again today I see :)

Lol, agreed SoB.

If it was easy everybody would be doing it!