Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

I’m not sure what level you move at within the industry, but personally don’t know anyone who thinks a complete ban on developing licences already awarded is credible under any scenario.

The greens want independence just as much as the SNP. There will be pragmatic accommodations made with the greens but an outright ban on new developments will not happen.

Any reason you are bringing this up on PMG board? Surely we are low risk with one asset in the SNS and the big one can be developed through tie backs to existing infrastructure. This stuff happens every year and nobody cares. Cambo is in the spotlight because it is a 5 year development.

Thanks Chris.

Is it 3 years they are saying to have an EV of £150 million?

They better get going!!

Zero chance they will shift oil position.

The bigger risk is from the UK populist partys.

I expect a pragmatic managed decline. Improve efficiency and reduce emissions by developing hubs with electrified platforms. Anything else is for fantasists. Ceasing oil production or development would cost too much.

With respect it sounds like you have an issue with SNP and are allowing that to cloud your judgement.

I expect Cairn to go after the full amount. This is just a new mimimum amount that we could get, assuming it all goes through.

The GoI appear to be running scared. Perhaps a quick $1.5 billion offer. Save us the hassle of selling on their airplanes.

Yup a nice blue day!

Cairn are a bit boring (or so I thought) but should give a return at some point. I’m disappointed they sold Kraken. Will need to see if they can pick up some more assets...perhaps still opportunities to pick up good deals from the majors as they move focus to renewables.

Enquests turn for 25% soon I hope.

Also need my US equity PUTs to come good as they are a bit of a drag at the moment!

I might treat myself to one Freddie - give a little back!

Blind luck I’m afraid, but it was starting to look very cheap. I bought as a long term hold with hope of a negotiated award 12 months down the line potentially. Basically none of the award priced in.

Not a dead cert they will get the cash in full or anytime soon, but derisked a lot I would say. Will hold and see what happens.

Lol my cairn buy yesterday looking a bit good

Still in Jan - just find it amusing hearing Chiltings confident predictions and KOs bum licking.

Brent average should be ok for the next 12-18 months. ENQ strong medium term as I KEEP saying. Will it fall short term? Quite possibly. Do I care? No.

Chilts is clearly in a short term long position at the moment.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-column-russell-oil-asia/column-another-weak-month-for-crude-imports-in-asia-undercuts-oil-bulls-idUSKBN2F60Y8

Japan situation worsening

They are poorly vaccinated, old population, and high crude usage. Why does this one not matter Chilts?

Nick - sellers need to find buyers for that extra 1%. The cost they are willing to pay for it sets the price of all barrels.

It’s basically going to go in storage because the demand elsewhere can’t use it. The market will price this in based on expected excess volumes that might get built up whilst supply exceeds demand.

If the markets in general turn pessimistic then it could fall a lot.

Wtfdik though

Chilting - they have cut transport links already. The demand is gone. They are estimating 5% drop in demand currently.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/8/4/covid-resurgence-in-china-drives-global-oil-demand-concerns

Will it get worse? I don’t know.

The article is saying that 2 of the affected areas are major manufacturing centres.

During India’s delta wave there was around a 20% reduction in demand.

I would imagine it will be similar for China, which would equate to 2 million barrels per day surplus for say a month or 2 before recovering.

It’s not immaterial and that is why the POO is falling. I don’t think that is priced in yet either so it will keep falling if things do head down this road.

Grow up KO.

I am still invested, though as I say have taken some off the table for my own sanity.

Short term POO weakness but ENQ is a great business now and will get to 30p whether POO is at $60 or $80.

Might just take a little dip as this latest Covid worry works through and POO stabilises.

Hi Chilts - sorry that doesn’t seem plausible to me. How can demand not be affected by mass lockdowns of millions of people? We need demand to be growing as OPEC add back the barrels. We are probably a couple of months away from a crest of a wave in China.

I’m not convinced we know enough about the Chinese vaccine to say it stops serious disease.

Also remember that the West has a population with much better immunity as we have let it run wild through our populations across 3 waves, only restricting life to keep hospitals from collapse. Even if China have 50% double vaxxed they are still in big trouble.

In the UK there are around 90% of the population with anti bodies from infection or vaccine. I bet it is no more than about 50% in China.

Also you say “if there is an outbreak”

There already is IMHO. But they are going to hide the facts and maintain the illusion that they are in control for as long as they can.

Chilting - no country has been able to resist delta.

The Chinese vaccines have been shown to be quite ineffective, and the majority of the population are not vaccinated.

We are already looking at cancelled domestic transport and stay at home.

It will be a lot worse than India’s outbreak IMHO.

Absolutely hitman - Still far too much risk priced in here.

KO - the power comes from control. They have shown recently that they will maintain control at the expense of the economy. E.g. tech stocks

Could get genuinely bad for markets if China can’t control the spread. They will already be destroying significant demand with the strong restrictions coming in.

They won’t care what damage they do to the economy because their primary aim is to keep control of the populace.

I understand gas prices are largely fixed?

Not too big a deal as the contingent payments will be a nice bonus if Brent continues to perform.

it does now look well priced after the excitement of the arbitration has subsided. Can’t see the $1.7 billion arriving any time soon but WTfdiK.

I have dipped my toes in today and saving some dry powder for any general market weakness