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Agreed Ammu

Chilting seems to be picking numbers out of his backside.

POO may go up or down tomorrow. Not convinced it can go to $65 before significant buying pressure comes in. There is a supply deficit after all!! If you had oil in storage would you want to release it below $70??

Agreed KO -the market was pricing in a potential break up of OPEC followed by a price war. Risk should be removed today. Price should stabilise.

It will do what it wants though. Predicting daily movement of oil price is one for the fools. The media will always come up with a justification after the fact. It’s often the same justification they would use whether price action is up or down!! There are often 2 ways to look at things.

From a longer term perspective, the price of oil should trend up. Physical transactions will eventually guide it to the correct price.

Enquest looking strong and in my opinion waiting for a broader sector re-rate to really accelerate. Hopefully we will drift upward to mid 20s before that engine starts firing.

It is a very knowledgeable board here.

The only reason I can think of is exploration. Not sure what TLW have at the moment but they used to have exciting exploration plays with “potential”.

For me ENQ is a very safe bet. We have near field development to extend our key infrastructure. Costs are currently very low. That has to be the future IMHO. I am impressed with what AB has achieved. TLW is unravelling operationally and financially IMHO.

You did get one reply suggesting the UK was an unfavourable jurisdiction for oil and gas. There are some risks there but there is no way the UK is going to trash all their infrastructure to appease the green lobby. That should become very clear at COP26.

I do think the board need to start answering questions about Gneiss and what exactly they have been paid to do. Was there a competitive process given that we have 2 gneiss guys heavily involved in the business (related party transaction?)

I know Chris that you brought this up with the BODs at an AGM a couple of years ago? I think I remember you saying at the time that you weren’t very happy with the response but that essentially it had been an OK outcome with offloading the non core assets and tidying things up.

Well I think we now need to be holding this BOD to account. It doesn’t seem reasonable to me to spend £200000 on the greenan deal just to get it transacted. How many years will it take of operation to claw back that cost? Seems way too much for a piddly little deal with a couple of farmers.

Looking good now. Quotas will change across the board from May according to Twitter. Should keep everyone together for a while longer!

General markets are in a bit of a bearish mood, but this would at least add some certainty and lessen the risk of an oil price war. Would be great if we can get a deal through to end of 2022.

Lol I’m not surprised Ammu!

Those locked in will probably be very defensive. Those with cash will soon pick up on the disparity though and we will see a levelling up!

I see they are forecasting FCF of 400 million- Enquest should come in higher than that!!

Looks like there needs to be a rotation into ENQ. Debt is killing TLW and we seem to be coming out the other end now at ENQ with our new 4% loan.

Brokers now realising this too!

Did I read right that their break even is $50!

We seem to be in much better shape with break even in the 30s.

Yes indeed Ammu - ENQ is seriously outperforming their peers. TLW down 25% in the last month while ENQ is up.

When sentiment in macro / oil changes we should see 30p IMVHO.

I actually think COP26 might be a driver. A healthy dose of realism will be dealt out IMVHO. The green activists have had their time and I think people are getting a bit fed up with Constant Crisis.

Our chart is looking rather tasty

Maybe they would be interested in an FPSO for equity deal?

Though to be honest I think ENQ have enough on their plate with BBK in terms of big projects.

They failed to raise what they wanted in the IPO. My view is market cap of £25 million is probably too high. There are better options out there.

Chilting - France on the red list matters to holiday makers. It is inconsequential for markets and oil demand.

I’m not saying there won’t be restrictions, high case numbers, deaths. Just that the overall trend is that people are getting on with their lives and being good little consumers and grafters.

This is the new normal.

Sorry GKB, but COVID is over in Europe as far as markets are concerned. The economic impact certainly is, and we have pent up demand now to satisfy.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/071521-european-mobility-edges-to-post-pandemic-high-despite-rising-delta-infections

Interesting read

Lol Chilting - doom and gloom is so 2020.

Stonk is building slowly but surely.

Now joining in the rebound

India’s gasoline demand is now above 2019 levels.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-gasoline-sales-jump-above-pre-pandemic-levels-prelim-data-2021-07-16/

I suppose one day you will get it right Chilting.

Can’t see it personally. OPEC causing the world to chew through storage. Plenty of cover available for little setbacks in recovery. August is going to be particularly tight!