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Hi Siko In your opinion do you think we will get another shipment by the end of year considering 31st Jan falls on a Sunday and typically shipments take place on a Monday. I guess it really depends how CEY management play it. They have already hit the top end of their 2017 priduction guidance and knowing the management cautious approach they may roll the sales into next year. What do you think?

Compared to 2016, the current gold price of $1285 is 13% higher. With gold production on H2 at Centamin recovering, and AISC benefiting from new technology in Q4 2017, my expectation is gold sales will exceed top end of guidance around 560,000 koz and that critically the PBIT will be close to 2016 despite higher profit share and royalty payments. With the share price a reflection of future expected cash flows, I would expect a positive analyst upgrade to £2 for mid 2018. Note a meltdown in the valuation of Bitcoin in my opinion will see the gold spot price move higher and reinforce it's status as the leading safe haven asset. Between now and the end of Jan, the CEY price will be dictated by the $, how political risk and any equity market correction aswell off course any downward correction in Bitcoin. After Jan, the CEY share price will fly with Q4 production results and potential announcement of reserves upgrade. In addition they may provide guidance for 2018 production - I hope they go aggressive and aim for at least 600,000 koz.

Hello Siko and et al, a great start to the week to the share price and gold price is still above $1250. Any news on the latest gold weekly shipments and does anyone know if we had 2 shipments last week as last Monday's figures although good had a notable drop compared to recent performance.

Thanks Siko. A drop from recent awesome performance however still a good number.

Hi Siko et al, any updates on Egyptian weekly gold sales? Thank you so much

Thank you Siko. This is great performance by Centamin and our patience with the current depressed share price will be overcome.

Any news Siko on weekly gold sales. Last week numbers with 2 deliveries in a single day was unprecedented and the volume of sales was at a record level for a single week. I am hoping this will continue to the year end. Many thanks

Hi Siko Your exceptional due diligence and own observations are well regarded on this bulletin board. I know you have great faith in Centamin and today's shipment breaks new ground. This will be an exceptional Qtr with both production and gold sale price hitting great milestones. Thank you again

US Federal Committee minutes released this evening with some governors reporting concerns over low inflation and potentially dovish views on US interest rate increases. Overall gold is seeing good buying with any price correction seeing a bounce back. I am seeing more bullish reports of gold price forecast from analysts. It would be great if we reach $1300 by the year end. Even ETF sales is having little impact on the medium term outlook. Great news for Centamin and with exciting announcements on the horizon, a strong gold price, would merit a re-rating of the share price.

Hi Siko, thank you for your timely weekly gold sales report. Centamin continues to move forward positively and the latest data indicates full year outrun will be just above tip end of forecast. A positive EoD for the share price closing at 1.40. However gold despite earlier in the day close to hitting $1300 has taken a sharp downward correction with the price currently at $1275. US economic figures better than forecast is creating a positive momentum for an interest rates increase before EoY. Gold has had good support levels at current levels so I so not expect a further reduction of this size tomorrow.

Thanks Rebess. It's ironic that Bitcoin Futures will be CASH settled. CME as a regulated exchange brings some credibility to the underlying asset, Bitcoin, however it still does not remove the inherent risk that Bitcoin as an asset has. I am aware traders who like to speculate can't wait to short the stock and CME provides the perfect opportunity.

https://the-moneychanger.com/commentary Very interesting article.

Market is finally catching up to overpriced equity markets, a faltering US legislative process with rising geopolitical risks Brexit, Saudi, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe just to name a few...and let's not forget the potential impeachment of Trump for collusion with Russia on the US presidential campaign. Separately CME is launching a Bitcoin Future soon, with reports indicating that traders will be looking to place negative bets - massively shorting Bitcoin - watch this space there is a massive correction on the horizon. The only safe haven asset will be gold, Yen and US Treasury Bonds!!

Hi, thanks for the analysis, however there is nothing in there which is new that we are not aware of i.e. it's historical news. What it does not do Is provide it's own forward forecast. It described CEY as operationally geared because of its 50% profit share with EMRA and states it's dividend policy shows no growth - unbelievable when it was 7% in 2016 and there is zero debt on the balance sheet and cash of $350M. From my perspective this is a poor report and admittedly the analyst starts off of saying gold mining stocks are complex to value and that it takes many days to undertake a detail analysis - which this is certainly not!

IMF agrees disbursement of $2bn loan to Egypt - https://www.ft.com/content/09ebd889-a431-3b5b-a34a-49c70e380231 via @FT Egypt had received the latest $2 billion tranch from the IMF of a $11 billion loan promised. This follows confidence measures introduce to improve the economy. GDP is currently at 4.2% well ahead of forecast of 3.5%. 18 months ago Egypt had nearly insufficient foreign currency reserves to fund it's trade imbalance. This is positive and CEY is making an invaluable contribution with a record breaking contribution this year of $100 million to the Egyptian Treasury, employing over 2,000 on the Sukari Mine and supporting many local businesses. CEY should be seen as an example to others - shareholders have taken all the capital risks and provided exceptional returns to the Egyptian economy. The government and judiciary must now step in and throw out the legal ownership challenge to the Sukari gold mine. I hope they are listening!

2018 will see Egyptian Presidential elections however Sisi is expected to win unanimously. Even though his leadership is autocratic with a clampdown on opposition and media however with the Middle East under turmoil the last thing Egyptians are looking for is instability and willing to live with the current military "dictator". From a selfish investor point of you, continuity is good, however I have every sympathy for the Egyptian people as they deserve better.

Hi Uncertain, in my view MiFID II and the Senior Manager Certification Regime are game changers. The latter places senior managers under directly responsibility for the action of their traders. They can no longer hide behind matrix organisational structures where accountability can be ambiguous. The UK regulation on the SMCR is unique however other regulators will follow. As someone who works in the commodities markets (not precious metals) I can vouch that traders and senior managers are so careful of their actions that the risk / rewards of market abuse are just not worth it. MiFID II introduces systems and controls on high frequency trading, algorithmic trading and introduces position limits at instrument level - this includes commodities. In addition all investment firms have 5 year obligatory record keeping requirements of all communications leading to commercial dealing activities. EMIR, REMIT and MIFID II have requirements for trade and order reporting to trade repositories where surveillance systems using algorithms identify and report suspicious transactions to national regulators. Seriously this year I have had more traders approach me this year that they wish to give up trading altogether as the risk is way to high for the regulatory scrutiny taken on.

Very witty. No connection and for your information I do not even eat Pork.

Finally we are seeing the boil come off the equities markets and Volatility Index is up 11%. Although Gold came off today we should see an upward movement continue.

As someone who has been develooing global trade surveillance systems and who works within the compliance world, I understand the regulatory environment probably better than most who post on this board. We have seen a plethora of new regulations including Market Abuse Regulation (June 2016), Dodd Frank, European Market Infrastructure Regulation, Senior Manager Certification Regime and Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II which is due to go live in Jan 2018. All the above regulations are aimed at market integrity and transparency and have been introduced following financial crisis in 2008. The exchanges provide not all a regulated trading venue for market participants however they provide the first line of market surveillance with direct supervisory responsibilities to ensure integrity of the markets. In addition national competant regulators such as the FCA, CFTC, ESMA, AMF have been provided with significant enforcement powers for market violations including civil and criminal sanctions. Market violations such as spoofing, layering, front running, wash trades, market cornering, marking the close, pre-arranged trading etc is actively monitored by regulators through its own automated surveillance systems which trigger alerts where such behaviours identified. In addition whistleblowing regulation means that the number of cases under investigation have increased signficantly. Since the Market Abuse Regulation went live in June 2016 the number if suspicious transaction order reports have increased by 70% compared to the previous year. The first high profile spoofing case under Dodd Frank is the Panther Case with criminal conviction of Michael Cosia, an oil trader based in London trading on the CME. Michael was convicted for 3 years by the US Department of Justice and had civil penalties including disgorgement of profits in total of £5M including the FCA, CFTC and CME and life time ban from trading. Tom Hayes, the former Cito Trader was convicted for 10 years for rigging the LIBOR markets. With many organisations that I work with investing heavily in compliance functions and surveillance systems I do not believe the markets are rigged in the way it's often described on this board. Since the financial crisis in 2008 some $500 billion of penalties have been incurred by investment firms for conduct risks violations. The penalties have been increasing exponentially year on year. In summary regulators including exchanges have the enforcement powers, resources and systems to stamp out market manipulation and insider trading. I don't believe the gold markets are rigged to the extent that it has been described on the board here.