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It would be interesting to know what happened to the 73mill at 5.5p & while accepting that MMs may have taken them on the basis that the spread is sufficient to ensure they should make a decent profit especially in the knowledge that Q1 figures & the AGM are due very soon.However there must be a decent number of existing holders ( inc me ) who would gladly have bought more under 6p,still giving MMs ,( if they took them ) a decent profit.I consider it most likely that the missing shares went to a friendly home ,resulting in the SP stabilising rapidly on Friday.Lets hope the market does not give us further opportunities of buying under 6p before material & positive news
If our win rate remains consistent at 80% & we win 8 of the outstanding RFQs ( & I assume we did not pitch for RFQs which we werent interested in ) ,what may their total value be based on minimum contract size ?Are their likely to be any very large contracts ( eg $125mill VW/Magna) & how close may that take us to $1bill?
Quarterlies due v soon will give Paul the opportunity of revisiting our expectations in this respect
The next 18 months WILL(rather than MAY) be better as by June 24?we should be firing on all cylinders ,will have reached & gone through the inflexion point & our projected annual revenues & KPIs should be much higher than they are now .Let’s hope we remain independent for long enough to realise the value in our investment .Many of us have been here for many years with many Hokders having a higher average cost than 7p -making 7p a great entry level in the basis that long termers (like me )invested far to early
Not the RNS we hoped for & she has done a great job over the last 3 years.Martin seems to be very experienced & was in his previous role for many years, experiencing & being involved with substantial growth over the years during which Altium developed from a A$200mill to over A$4bill company.Hopefully his expertise (including in the US ) will help us manage similar growth
Which is why ,following their IPO & crazy valuation ,that they must be favourites to try to buy us -assuming they believe that our key relationships don’t conflict & could be complimentary .Paul clearly not interested in any deals until our market lead can be ratified by rapidly increasing revenues ,profits & cashflow .As we are funded to break even they would have to pay a hefty premium & 100p + doesn’t sound as crazy as it did a year or two ago .The inflexion point is now very close -IMHO !
Stella clearly sees the substantial potential of our portfolio ,which is why she has risked reputation by agreeing to become a NED .Her job ,apart from her ruthless deal making brain ,will be to raise finance & her connections should ensure that sufficient amounts will be raised but J am sure that our Board will hope to make the next raise when our SP is much higher resulting in less dilution we long suffering shareholders .
I have been a massive fan of Fleet for years & once G3 is launched & we can start signing post production installation contracts our connections should increase exponentially & our very profitable monitoring services will provide substantial additional revenues.We have barely scratched the surface of the vast global Fleet market & with view to impending regulations that market will explode & Fleet OEMs & operators cannot ignore manadated safety regulations
Exactly & according we have been told that the $395m should be received over the next 6 years-so if we assume no more contract wins & 2 X minimum contract value ,that would give us an average of around$135m pa from Auto over the next 6 years-which substantially exceeds our current annual revenues .When expected/hoped for new RFQ wins are announced those figures will increase substantially & we must bear in mind that our Auto margins exceed 90%.Some large sales/buys today are interesting
10% is the maximum but the budget is $60.4mill so to buy 10% our SP would have to fall to an average of about 600p.If our SP remains around 1850 we would buy back around 3mill shares but at our current buying rate (about 160k p week) this facility would be fully utilised by early next year,when assuming all remains well & our cash pile continues growing(helped by higher interest rates) the facility is likely to be extended once the current facility is utilised.
If we can demonstrate material growth in the US & consistency in our other territories,our SP should continue its steady ascent.
Short term I am sure that the Board want to generate as many positives as possible before a fund raise which i am sure they will be hoping will be at a higher level than 1.5-2.00 p.Major exploration companies/producers operating in Australia will have a view as to the credibility of the Board & the likelihood of this being a genuine Giant prospect & , if so , they will be all keen to buy stakes in tiny eee
Great to see an expansion of the buy backs & if this continues for the next 15-20 years at this rate I may well own the company !
We should be in demand as bus /coach operators have little time to be compliant & their should be great interest in our proposed post manufacture offering as well as retrofit .Pity we are still awaiting G3 as if in production we would sell very large quantities -in my opion
Whether Mobileye bid for us depends on whether they believe our tech is truly 18 months ahead of the curve ,their concern about losing market share in their core business & therefore feeling compelled to diversify in order to broaden their offering ,the extent to which they have the vision to see what we coikd be achieving in 3-5 years in terms of market share ,revenue ,profits & cash flows .If they share the bullish view of most of us here about our prospects ,they have to consider how much it is worth them paying for the rights to what we have .Paul wants us to realise our full potential ,as we all do ,but if Mobile see us a crucial part of their future plans they would have to make a substantial offer -which following their IPO & the fact that the Market has reacted very well affording them a very high valuation .Intels advice I am sure will be if you identify a company who you believe to be crucial to your development you pay the price -which is why they paid $15bill for a then tiny company with what they believed to be must have tech .Why would they view us differently & how much would they be prepared to pay & who else in the Market would want to prevent that & at what cost .I would prefer this discussion to be happening in 2/3/4 years but we may have no choice
If we can execute on our technological lead & achieve effective market domination the Mobileye IPO valuation (around $22 bill )must give a clue to our potential to be substantially bigger as a company than our current $350mill
I am not a techie but hard to see why OEMs who are behind the regulatory curve would not instal a Magna mirror for $70/$80 if it not only ensures compliance but also ensures a 5 star safety rating .Surely even the might EM must be tempted to sign a contract ,despite him not believing in the need for DMS ,purely to appease The Regulators & particularly with view to the relatively low cost .
I am probably missing something ?