Member Info for Mr_Rooster

Aus, I totally respect Fleccy and certainly have learned from him about BT and investment. It just seem too much of politics these days turned many of us into tribal political party fans. I really hope something good happens and country come together for the best.

“Fleccy: the only people who'd vote Labour are the ones that either freeload, are lazy, never save for their future/retirement, or think the country should just become a free for all looney left lethargic failure of a country”

This is not true, I have a job, investment, love my country and am not after freebees but this time I will vote labour. The level of arrogance, dishonesty and deception from this tory and Libs is just disgusting.
In terms of economy, current tory party have no understanding of what is needed to help Business and no desire to learn. Investment has been at low level and several major British companies gone bust in recent years. Johnson was twice sacked for lying, lied many times during his premiership, whose party has had two referendums, three general elections & three leaders in the last five years and still says only his party can deliver 'certainty' to British firms.

FDA shelves plan for nicotine level. In the US, BATS 3% and IMB 2% up.

https://fortune.com/2019/11/20/fda-nicotine-plan-cigarettes-no-longer-on-agenda/

Alliance News today (start of the day)
“ Trump reportedly has backed off from a proposed ban on certain flavours of e-cigarettes, fearing that such a move could cost him votes in next year's US presidential election.
Aides allegedly advised him to hold fire on signing a memo to ban popular e-cigarette flavours such as fruit and menthol, warning that it could damage his re-election chances next year in some key battleground states, The New York Times and Washington Post both reported.”

CHARLES DUNSTONE, executive director buys over £1 million pounds share !

It is unbelievable that financially wise people on this BB, unreservedly trust BoJo with their country’s future and investments. If Jennifer Arcuri’s statement is true, you really need to pause and think twice about your priorities.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand?CMP=share_btn_link

H-hi, what makes you think that way?
All regulatory red tapes,etc etc, under cons damaged BT and limited the network development. Other Telecom companies were not interested in investing. They just wanted cheap access to already available cables. BT have expressed many times their dissatisfaction and asked for cooperation from government agencies. Labour plan is good for BT.
What are the chances that under BoJo, BT deemed useless and Openreach was sold for peanuts to US cable company?

".... their debtors"
Sorry it is "creditors"

"Inevitably, the state theft of private BT property would mean the lowest price paid possible,......"
Have not experienced Communism or "state theft" but have seen Flybe or Debenhams , where private shareholder got shafted while both companies still doing business and making profit for their debtors. I did not have shares in these companies but seen many suffered. I think Avrohom is right, this could be the best news for BT share.
Never imagined I would agree with Avro -:)

AUS3009, I agree with you labour's proposal is bold and looks stupid. I am not convinced yet, just thinking that it could be run like NHS, we got both public and private healthcare, i.e. Talktalk can still serve customers through FiberNation. Also public library could be seen as a risk to put bookstores out of business.
As you have rightly mentioned, BoJo's policy is quite risky too with the possibility of bringing in US style cables and consequently could make Open reach and businesses that rely on it redundant. Not to mention the loss to private investors.

“Credible” market analysis from Daily Trash ! No

BT may get hammered tomorrow but rivals would get smashed. Who wants to pay to talktalk, sky, ... if they can get fibre for free from nationalised BT? Some buying opportunities awaits?

(2/2).....

Fags and other forms of tobacco product (heated etc) are not going away. Vape is a small part of NGP product development and the extra regulation that will happen in the US is not a bad thing, putting dodgy small-scale operations out of business. I want this stuff to be regulated and taxed, so does the company...and government! That means it will happen and NGP revenues will grow. The EU markets have higher regulation than the US and the growth is pretty good there.

In the meantime, IMB will concentrate traditional tobacco on the premium brands and the multi-category approach (see Skruf and Pulze for example). If they continue to build loyalty in the blu experience, tobacco and other products in the regulated markets, the platform is there for growth. There will be further movement on cannabis in the near to medium term and that is another potential growth market.

I'm comfortable with my position here and have been adding in the run up to results as the valuations became total madness...less than 1700? The pre-close statement stated 10 % dividend growth and where else am i going to get 12 % returns? You have to be joking! :-0 "

(1/2)
I dont know the answer to your question. However, a piece I found about IMB's debt worth reading, so I just copied here. please dyor.

"The majority of the debt is issued as bonds with varying coupon and maturity date. There are a couple of the bonds that definitely need to be refinanced, such as the £1 Bn (Feb-22) with 9% coupon and the £600 M (Mar-24) with a 8.125 % coupon. Everything else has much lower coupon, less than 5 % and most less than 4 % with maturity dates out as far as Jun-32.

The total outstanding bond value is £13,476 M with an average margin of 2 %, from the results presentation. £1.681 Bn of that debt is due to mature in the next fiscal year and £1.329 Bn in FY21. The peak FY for maturity is FY22 with £2.073 Bn. There is very little debt with current maturity beyond FY27. I'd expect that to change for the reasons below.

If IMB can get decent bond rates then there is no reason not to issue new bonds to cover those that mature, as long as the ROI on that capital outperforms the coupon taking into account interest rates and inflation over the period of the bond. The simplistic point of view that IMB has too much debt really misses the point of making the extra capital work for you.

I've taken on short to medium term debt in my lifetime just because the interest rates that were on offer were just too low NOT to take the money. If you can't outperform 0.5-1 % ROI over 2-3 years then you may as well just give up now. It provides fiscal flexibility to make investments that require short term capital injection to give longer term returns. Most businesses don't have access to the bond market to get this type of funding and would snap your hand off if given the opportunity.

The cash conversion rate of IMB and the gross revenue mean that they can easily match the necessary capital investment going forward, while retaining the dividend at the 200+ p level, retiring some debt (but mostly refinancing) and continuing the buyback programme. It is a flexible and reasonable strategy that allows for capital reallocation as business and external demands require.

The cash required to service the bond debt is about 2/3 to 1/3 fixed interest rate over variable and 80 % / 20 % bonds over banks revolving facilities. There is no reason to believe that the revolving facilities will not continue...they are revolving after all! ;-)

With low single digit revenue and EPS growth forecast for FY20 then you are looking at about £2 Bn in divis against £3.75 bn of gross earnings as the basis point (FY19). Keep the divi constant and you are looking at gross earnings to increase by at least £100 M in FY20. With savings from restructuring and some non-core divestments, you make a simpler organisation with focus on its core revenue generating markets that maximises ROI, while retaining flexibility to retire and restructure debt and/or perform buybacks.

Continue......

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/11/05/i-reckon-the-low-imperial-brands-share-price-and-near-12-yield-make-it-a-screaming-buy/

Greggs was in similar position in May 2018, posted over 4% pre-tax profit loss and their share price dropped to ~950 from ~1250s but then it shot up to 2400 in just a year.

@Ratknapp, I do not know Velo but he/she makes valuable contributions to this board and there are lots of people enjoy Velo’s posts as it is thought provoking and makes me to think about other aspects and issues about the company that might have missed in my research. Anyhow, you were wrong about net profit.

SP gone up despite JEFFERIES’ cut, is it implying to some good report tomorrow? Or it is just selling opportunity?

Both shares seem cheap and badly hammered down compare to their peers.

Share buybacks is a good strategy for a company with 10% divi. Now with the share price at 10 year low it makes even more sense.

It baffles me too, as so many speculations about dividend cut when there is nothing to suggest this. A guy on the ADVFN chat was so happy to sell 6000 shares easily at 4 pm, this is the opposite of what should normally happen when everyone is looking for exit door on price fall. The uncertainty of general election, brexit, etc is quite frightening but this share looks very attractive to me as it pays more than 10%, which is more than enough for me and is a safe return in this market even with 50% divi cut. Any suggestions about risks? Is it correct to assume its debt is less risky now because of Fed’s rate cut?