The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
At the last (2019) AGM, former FD Stobie indicated that the plan was to pay off the bonds early. Obviously he's long gone and we don't know if this is still the plan.
So pointing out the bleedin' obvious, this tells us the latest date for the next RNS.
I fully realise that I'm being lazy here, but has anyone worked out what the offloading interval should be, bearing in mind the tanker capacity and theoretical production rates? (Due to the share price collapse, I still have to keep up with my day job for a while yet, so I cant' take the time to delve into this)
Daltry, I think we both agree on the facts of the matter and probably are in a similarly submerged position with our holdings. Maybe we've even met at the AGM.
You seem to be quite level-headed. Do you ascribe any value at all to this chartist stuff? I've never read up on it, but it smells of tea-leaf reading and snake oil to me.
C.Eng, you are not the only one, so take comfort from another C.Eng, M.IMechE.
Amidst the regular bouts of noise from myriad posters who appear out of nowhere whenever there is a flurry of trading, posts like Double's and yours are the only ones I read. Keep it up.
PS. I miss Biffadog, too.
Every dollar the price of Brent Crude rises by equates to $5m or more annual revenue. Economies are opening back up and the POO is rising inexorably, maybe not to $60 but certainly somewhere north of where it is now. As long as production is maintained, this can only go one way. I continue to hold, albeit with clenched buttocks and a tin hat.
I agree, but we're looking 2 years out here. Like I said, long term holder, not a trading/shorting spiv.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/23/europe-could-face-oil-shortage-in-a-decade-study-warns
I hope they're right, 'cos I'm a LTH sat on a whopping paper loss.
Gengis, I don't disagree with what you say. And note that I was clear about the uncertainty of production. However, I do believe that the oil price is likely to rise somewhat. From all that I read, there are a lot of national interests at stake, plus demand will in the medium term go back to where it was. It may be scary now, but look at how the global economy has rebounded after major catastrophies in the past. And as for the share price rise, there isn't much more it can go down.....
And I should add that a lot can happen in 2-3 years. A 30% drop in my portfolio, for example.
Hopefully followed by a significant rise. Still doing better than if I'd left it all under the mattress, though.
Haggis trap, you're not the only one. I know a few fellow investors in a very similar position, with a similar frame of mind so take comfort that you're not alone. And never mind the flood of ramping/deramping tosh which seems to accompany any major price change or RNS. The bottom line is that as demand rises, the price of oil is going up, so as long as we keep producing, there is only one way for the share price to move in the long term.
The pandemic means I'll have to work a few years longer than planned anyway, so my time horizon for HUR is now 2-3 years.
Double,
I for one would appreciate it if you would drop in occasionally and let us know your current thoughts, plus of course OT tales. Amidst all the dross from posters who appear out of nowhere every time there is some share price activity, I always read your posts.
I'll keep holding for now, as I can't see how the SP could go any lower, assuming production continues. And yes, I do know that's not a given. Your thoughts?
Good spot on Mr. Kelly, I forgot about that one.
What a shame Biffadog has gone, because I would have valued his opinion at this juncture.
Chaps,
Here's my take on the situation, for what it's worth.
Amidst the noise today, there are some favourable fundamental points being drowned out:
1) The brent crude price is continuing to recover, $42.8 as I write, and all the factors are in place for this to continue up to who knows where.
2) HUR is producing at 12,000 barrels/day and this is likely to increase, backed up by information previously released by the company.
3) There is lots of cash in the bank, and commitments can be easily covered, even before oil price and production increases.
Bond interest is covered, and a lot can happen before they are due in about 2 years.
4) Kerogen are still in; they've just reshuffled personnel to make it look like a wholesale change. I've never seen any of their guys utter a word at corporate events anyway.
We're probably all old enough to have worked for businesses in different stages of development. Whilst it is a part of the human condition that we are all averse to change, the fact is that Engineers and CEOs are different types of animal. In general, Engineers are very conservative, tending to look to the long term and are generally risk-averse. Operations and CEO- types on the other hand, tend to have very short time horizons and are only interested in numbers which will influence their next promotion or bonus. Or the share price, if that's what they're being measured on.
It takes all sorts to run a successful business. The engineers often have to stop the operations types from doing stupid stuff and the operations types have to press engineers to get off the fence and get on with stuff. Businesses go through phases in their development, and the balance of skills needed changes through time. Hurricane would never have got off the ground without Dr. Trice and I admire him hugely for that. Looking back to the recent capital markets day car-crash of a presentation, though, especially through my "retrospectoscope", Trice and his team did a truly terrible job of selling the business. We've all been working online for a few months now. I don't know about you, but talking my way through a slide show on MS Teams is now second nature.
Like it or not, Hurricane has in the eyes of Mr.Market, changed from being an exploration play to a producer, so we find ourselves in a position where we need a different skill set at the helm. From here, the objective has to be to optimise revenue and minimise expenses, whilst potentially selling the business (which was the plan all along). A quick look at the new team suggests that they may have the right background for this. Its a shame that Stobie has departed, as he had a long history of wheeler-dealing and impressed me at the AGM I attended.
So to sum up as one of the other posters on LSE said, best sit back, buckle up and prepare to endure a bumpy ride. As long as the oil keeps flowing, a substantial share price rise is inevitable in my view. I just don't know when.
AK, as a LTH, I too find the sudden influx of posts from blatant rampers / derampers frustrating. Your observations and anecdotes are a welcome oasis in a sea of spam. Keep up the good work.
Double, I agree with you.
Attending the AGM last year is probably the main reason I continue to hold. When circumstances allow, a second event should be held where we get to see the whites of their eyes when shareholders ask questions. The pub afterwards was pretty good, too, as far as I recall...
I'll be writing to them when circumstances have changed enough to allow a meeting.
I hope this post won't get lost in the general noise here this morning.
For us non-oilies, could someone wiser than I please explain what HUR mean by "interference", and why this would cause one to shut-in the 7Z well.
Bonus question: The a-6 well is choked back considerably and flowing without ESPs. What does the upside look like, and is it likely to get close to 20k BOPD? I guess this is limited by well characteristics and the bore size of the pipe?
Experts only, please.
And as I confidently predicted, a blue finish! I must do this more often. I predict that I will be right about 50% of the time. Only another 30p to go 'till I can retire.
Daltry, well worth a listen (or read) if you find yourself with time to kill. Even my teenage sons (who think I'm a very uncool old fart), both enjoyed listening. Easily found on the web, and great for car journeys. Not that you'll be going anywhere any time soon.
Well spotted. I'm in my office at the moment.....