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The banks could also extend Mocuhel some form of 'guarantees' in order to buttress its balance sheet when tendering for contracts. Given that a weak balance sheet is the reason for being unsuccessful in some bids (presumably, they would stand a good chance of securing the contract otherwise) then the banks could give those guarantees. No money need be exchanged, and winning these contracts would allow Mouchel the time, and generate sufficient cash flow, to recover. Surely, goodwill must mean something? The banks would be helping themselves by helping Mouchel over this troubling, disruptive period.A way can be found if these guys put their heads together, and thought long-term.
My comments are succinct and to the point. Firstly, speculators are wagering on a rights issue, and setting their probability by selling (regrettably) as they see no other meaningful effort from the management of Mocchel, I am hoping that no rights issue be conducted, because of the inevitable dilution (as clearly indicated by the CEO). As I am biased against a rights issue, I don't feel I am in a position to assign a probability to that unfortunate event, should it occur. And as for other credit lines, clearly, this means the banks, who could extend the repayments to give Mouchel a chance to restructure its balance sheet (preferably not through a rights issue).
The Indians have been conducting details assessments on the bids (and most like taking bribes) for years. Osborne is performing what is an expected mission to say those words, but I don't think any one carries any hope that the Indians will change their mind at this juncture. Really, the Eurofighter consortium needs to move on and tackle other markets and let this (Indian) one alone. There are lots of others in need of equipment. It's time to move on. Stop with this India thing. It's lost. Move on.
Although still only speculative, the share price is beginning to reflect a probability of a rights issue. As markets tend to over react (both ways) it remains a moot point what that probability in all likelihood is? At this juncture, I can't say with any degree of acceptable precision, so I remain quiet. But I hope no rights issue is needed, and some other credit lines can be worked out.
Why would they buy if they are even contemplating a dilution, let alone a 'significant dilution'? What is needed is growth. The economy has to grow, this is the best way. To grow on fundamental, and no more financial malarkey.
. There are other competing companies out there in the same categoray as Mouchel and are coping fine, managing to negotiate the downturn and wait for a pick up. The damage to Mochel was self-inflicted. The market did not damage Mochel, it was the (corrupt or incompetent?) management who inflicted this wound. The botton line (the balance sheet) is reflecting this. This is what happens when a management takes a company with good core activities (civil engineering) and diverts into the insane servicing operations that do not make use of any of Mouchel's core engineering strenghts. Instead of consolidating, they in fact diluted by going off at a tangent, so the damage is internal. I hope the banks do not foreclose. Perhaps the core engineering part can be hived off into a separate company, and sooner of later it will grow back and the shareholders value secured. The extraneous operation divested or disposed off, and put full attention and power behind those core operations. The UK needs companies like this. This is an asset. It created good engineering jobs. It would be a shame, and a disgrace, to lose that. In conclusion, I hope the civil engineering side is maintained, and separated from the rest of the group. And this should remain with shareholders. Let them have a rights issue and dilute the rest, but not the civil engineering side.
From Volcano's extensive last post, the impression left is one of a company not in any way in control of its destiny,and at a loss of ideas, other than 'a significantly dilutive equity issue.' I think this would handicap Mouchel for a long time, in terms of its share price, and I sense a reluctance to proceed here. Leaving it to the banks is maybe the only option in rolling over the credit lines. I think they would be persuaded of this strategy (as they do it for so much property and REIT entities) if the economy starts to grow again. Clearly, this is a domestic salvation as I see no mention of the export or overseas operations, even though there is plenty of action at the moment in the Arabian Gulf, with lots of investment. Perhaps Mouchel's balance sheet conundrums are hampering it here, as the contract and payment system in the Gulf is not as straightforward and thus cash flow could be hit if the Arabians renege on any potential contracts. Let's hope the UK economy can pick up a head of steam. That's the best option for Mouchel at this present time, especially for shareholders.
The question is, is there a plan for recovery, for restoring the health of the balance sheet? I think the directors are waiting for a general pick-up in the economy to patch over the current weaknesses of Mouchel and thus create the time frame for recovery. I see no other strategy here. And if Rumbles did in fact make such a comment, that his company was unlikely to win the bidding, it's a gave mistake because it kicks morale down, and that you do not want to do. If he was making an honest appraisal (recognizing that the balance sheet needs boosting with a capital injection), then he should make it to himself, and not give open voice to this.If a takeover is out of the question at the present time, then hunker down, keep quiet, and press on.
It seems from the sell off today that speculators were betting with the stock price. Only fundamentals will restore the market value of this company where it should be. Let's hope the managers and directors come clean, do what needs to be done in terms of restoring the balance sheet to a healthy state. Then the depredations of speculators will cease to be a meaningful factor.
Capital raising may be their only option. The banks could help, but I am left with the impression that they, the banks, are (in effect) insisting on a scrip issue in order to recapitalize the company, and shore it up for the long term.
It is not the company per se, or the sums involved, but he politics of that region that you need to keep an eye on. You should contrast this with the other miners who risks are purely of market origin, (such as Rio, BHP, etc). While these miners (ENRC etc) see cheap, there is a political currency attached under the hood. It is still a world of pirates out there, notwithstanding the Enlightenment, the Pax Americana, and the 21st Century information revolution.
If the past 3 years have taught us anything, it is the unassailable fact that 'analysts'' like rating agencies and lemmings, are redundant. One has only oneself, and one's gut, to guide one through the ongoing malaise.
And so... where are those Indian rascals with that $10 billion order? think they are celebrating France's win at the Oscars. BAE should start looking at developing smart (small) technologies, and not have so much of its eggs in the big equipment buy.
Self-evidently, investors are not paying the slightest attention to Singer Capital. Which brings forward the conviction that analysts are very much passe and a thing of the past. They know as much as donkeys, though I much prefer listening to donkeys.
Good post!. Add in some speculators' rush, and that about sums it up.
What could/do they not replay the outstanding due loans from accumulated income, rather than tapping the bond market? I would like to know this? Maybe to preserve cash flow?...