RE: RNS RNS RNS RNS22 Oct 2023 18:48
This 👇🏽
Olderwiser
Posts: 410
Price: 27.52
No Opinion
RE: RNS RNS RNS RNS RNS20 Oct 2023 12:51
Part 1
PANR set out to prove 3 things in this SMDB flow test, it seems a 100% scorecard takes time for the market to digest
The SMDB will flow oil, there was a risk it would not as demonstrated at Talitha where a blockage occurred and the test failed. With the new fracture stimulation plan, this risk has been mitigated as it has now flowed
The next generation fracture design would deliver an increase in fracture efficiency to the 40% required to make the projects valuable. The viability of oil extraction in all of the projects has been costed on this key outcome. It is an enormous step forward to have now proven 40% and beyond is in the bag by delivering 50% in only the second attempt. Going above the now low case of 40% feeds directly into bottom line profit gains on all of the oil resource
Gas oil ratio in production can be improved from that encountered at ALK 2 ZOI, there it was ~12700 scf/barrel of oil, the SMDB has just delivered a much reduced 3000 to 4000 scf/barrel of oil.
If this holds under further analysis, it is another bottom line gain, over and above the already viable models, that were all based on the ALK 2 ZOI long term flow results, that showed the almost 3 times higher GOR
Reconstructed 11 day flow test timeline from RNS details
Flowback frack fluid at an average of 1100 bpd for the first 6 days, at which point 60% of frack fluid has been recovered
On day 6 N2 lift begins, and oil begins to flow on day 7, it has a 90% water cut
Over the next 5 days inclusive oil flows at an average of 45bpd, with a range of 30 to 100bpd. It would be expected, that the lowest flow would be when oil flow begins, and associated 90% water cut prevails, giving a water rate of 270 bpd and oil bpd of 30, on day 1 of oil flow
From there frack fluid (water cut ) will decline and oil flow increase, we know the peak was at 100bpd plus, where in the remaining four days is unsure.
Bearing in mind this flow test is undertaken, in a single stage fracture, in a sub optimum part of the reservoir, with the choke restricted to minimize gas flow, by minimizing pressure drop in the reservoir, a average 45 bpd of oil is very encouraging
Note this is oil only, and does not include condensate or NGLs that would be recovered by chilling the produced gas flow.
Looking at Alk 2 ZOI results 30 stages delivered an IP 30 flow of 180bpd oil and 325 bpd of combined NGLs and condensate, so each single stage would average 6 bpd of oil and ~11 bpd of Ngl and condensate. Combined 17 bpd of saleable liquids
PANR have used the equivalent of a new design single stage horizontal fracture, as the template for this vertical fracture.
Next question is how much NGL and condensate can reasonably be expected from 3000 to 4000scf of gas that is produced for each barrel of oil. The SMDB test produced an average of 45bpd of oil
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