Member Info for Mortality

Next and MKS reported good results over here right? Think US physical retailers have issues with theft.

I don't know why Asos doesn't charge for returns. Look at Frasers. £5 delivery to home. £5 delivery to store. They charge you for everything. Next charges £2.50 for a returns collection.

JD Sports -5%. Boohoo -2%. Ocado -2%. Just Eat -3%.

Asos doesn't look out of kilter vs. the rest. Everyone should calm down.

You could say the same for Next? Clothes are just clothes right? Yet they make a pretty steady 10% margin ish. Even if you -50% Asos's sales, and took a 10% margin on the rest, that is like £200m profit.

I think Ocado went from 5 to 10 with a short base of 6%?

Indeed. The whole principle of it is to use it to get rid of unwanted stock so that on their main website they don't have to have such heavy discounts (diluting the full sales price proposition). I think it worked a treat. They can also pull this level anytime they want to clear their channel.

There is just a new vacuum at the moment between updates. People fill in the blanks. Share price goes down - 'must be negative'. Share price goes up - 'must be positive'. Actually the only 'firm' news we have had has been from Asos peers (albeit physical stores) which are doing well.

Not too shabby.

Why? Its basically Woolworths, but cheaper. I don't think it matters a bit for UK retail.

Why does it feel like Next is always putting out trading updates and nothing comes from Asus.

The barrier seems to be the price the placing was done at. Im guessing some overhang of stock needs to be cleared here.

Probably end up -5%

Meanwhile ocado head of tech just left. So guess no bid there. Execs about to cash in on a big bid don't leave.

Companies about to announce bids don't have execs leaving. Bid spec off table.

He is going for the top shareholder spot. Not too far off now. Given he must know how the sector is trading, I wonder of he knows this is the last opportunity to buy down here.

I think it smashes through £4 soon. Every time Ashley increases his stake he takes supply out the market.

He must be looking at taking the #1 spot. Would only require another 9%. £50m roughly. Hes got the cash, the ego, and the desire. He also clearly thinks its attractive down here.

There is a risk that an out of control inflation cycle, or stubbornly high inflation causes the BoE to basically force a hard recession to solve the issue. In such a situation Asos is in real trouble (given its high debt and gearing into the consumer).

Today's inflation print takes this risk off the table in my opinion. Share price should respond accordingly.

Big up day I expect.

The big one will be falling inflation. Imagine all that disposable income sloshing back into the market when rates start to drift lower.

Will be a field day for UK consumers cyclicals. Asos is probably the most geared of the lot.

Asos was too promotional in the past (on its main site). I believe this is a strategy to push pricing up and have less discounting on the main site for those that want the latest fashion styles, newest ranges, and are less price sensitive. Meanwhile the stuff that isn't selling on the main site they can push through a different channel (for those who only want bargains and the stuff most people don't want).

Weening customers of aggressive discounting...