Member Info for Mortality

I bought 50k gbp. 2 days ago. Hope that counts.

Not sure I buy the whole tracker argument. Wouldn't there be small cap trackers the other side buying?

I think one of the large institutions is capitulating. They bought in when this was a growth company worth billions. A small cap 500m market cap with a value investment case doesn't fit their mandate.

No. I can't buy US stocks premarket or afterhours with my current platform either.

I don't think its all its cracked up to be. In all my time looking at US stocks I don't think pre-market or post-market trading is a source of alpha (I think studies have proven this).

Anyway, look at Asos. I managed to buy at the open yesterday no problem +10%. Its hardly like the UK market is super savvy even when it is open lol.

Most UK tech stocks have a small wobble. Investors flee. Shares tank. Cue company getting bought at a modest premium. CSR / Laird / ARM / Blue Prism.

Either that they get out invested / smarted by US companies. Look at Blue Prism. First-to-market by about 15 years. Got overtaken by US competitor UIPath in about 2 years. UIpath raised huge amounts of $$ at 40x sales, blue prism raised tiny amounts at 7x sales.. Game over.

I gave up on UK stocks a 4 years ago. UK investors are too cynical. Management teams are too weak. Companies are not disruptive enough. That said, sometimes I come back for little gems like this one :)

The lovely thing about a higher share price... is the market worry's less about the debt (because any problem could be quickly resolved with a small placing). Less worry about the debt... leads to a higher share price. Which creates a lovely self-reinforcing cycle.

How would that even look? I'm not sure the Dane would sell his stake.

You need 75% majority to force through a delisting of shares. So Mike couldn't force it private. You need 90% to squeeze out remaining shareholders, which he definitely won't get.

Personally I can't see it. I think the Dane could do it though. Don't think he wants to though.

I think we will see quite a few brokers on the sidelines get off the fence in the coming weeks and turn buy. Same with long only institutions.

Simple reason. This company was pretty uninvestable for a lot of investment professionals (who don't want to stick their neck out and lose their job). A failed turnaround would lead to high risk of outright bankruptcy.

The equity raise and yesterday's results were big steps forward. Management credibility up, turnaround coming through, and balance sheet stable.

A valuation of 1 billion equates to c. 40 pounds a customer. Someone would pay that. That's nothing.

We closed FY22 with £1.1bn of inventory, twice the size of our stock balance in FY20. In two years, the c.£560m increase in our net debt position was broadly equal to the c.£550m increase in our stock

Crazy to think how this almost pushed the company to the edge!

Guidance reiterated. Surely that means paddleboards.

About to find out whether I buy myself and the wife too of the range paddleboards... or we eat peanuts for dinner for the next month. Good luck all.

Spot on. Previous management team made a lot of mistakes. Sank huges amounts of cash into inventory at the same time as post COVID boom ending.

Imagine saving 250m on inventory spend last year and keeping it in cash.. how different the finances would look now.

See this a lot.

Takes a lot of pain on the way down. Sells before the bottom. Spends alot of time patting themselves in the back as the share keeps trending down.

Misses the bottom as too busy patting themselves on the back. Shares recover over medium term and surpass sell price. Cue regret.

Meanwhile the proceeds from Asos sale were foolishly invested elsewhere that cost money (which they will sell for a loss). Cue more regret.

Cycle repeats.

Always darkest before the dawn. If the consumer was in a great state then the shares probably wouldn't be down 95%.

It makes £4bn roughly in sales. Put that on a 3% EBIT margin, would make £120m EBIT. Compare than to an EV of c. £700m (assuming debt comes down as expected). How does 6x EBIT sound?

I am not gambling on a takeover. I am here for the potential turnaround on a ridiculously low valuation. That said, if someone wants to pay £12 for my shares they can have them.

I've been here before with Countrywide. Its because of the probability of default.

On every metric it is ridiculously cheap. However, you have to weigh that against a certain chance of bankruptcy.

So its either a 0, or a goldmine.

Since the placing on the 25th May, 20% of shares have changed hand. Since the terrible interim results on the 10th of May, almost 45% of shares have changed hands.

We know c. 50% of shares are closely held by parties holding or increasing their positions.

So... who is left to sell? The investors who brought in the last month just wake up today and think, what have I done, time to get out. Doesn't make sense. The entire register should be full of institutions who are aware of the troubles and willing to buy anyway.

Its supply and demand people. All this share buying will filter through to the share price eventually.

They reported on the 25th May that there was "No change to the guidance for H2 FY23 issued in the Interim Results announcement of 10 May 2023 except in relation to the P&L and cash impacts of refinancing as detailed above."

Given their H2 covers the period 28th February to 31st August, when they issued that statement they had basically finished Q3.

Not sure what would cause a warning here unless trading had materially worsening in the last 3 weeks (maybe due to the supplier issues).