Member Info for Moric

Good post here on log thickness.

https://x.com/KNLCBD/status/2054543667877085676?s=20

Been a while since I've posted on LSE. Like to follow a few of the interesting oil and gas exploration companies, and that inevitably brings me here. I have a background in oil and gas finance and been at it for a bit more than decade. Saw the good work being done by Predator in Morocco and thought I'd try and get up to speed.

My first impressions of the project are that if PRD manages to get an economic flow rate than they probably have a pretty big tank of gas to exploit (and the ability to generate substantial revenues over time exploiting that tank). I am not really focused on what the value of the company could be because frankly it's a lot higher than here if the wells can produce. What I'd like to focus on are the few areas of concern that I have. Specifically since there's been no production test on any of the MOU-1 --> MOU-4 series, how do we know what is or isn't net pay (theoretically producible)?

I've done my best to summarize the MOU-1 --> MOU-4 disclosure to date on gross / net pay and any other disclosure provided by PRD (If you see an error in the above summary, I'd love to hear it to correct my understanding). That can be found here: https://ibb.co/y6d1SGx

What I find myself wishing I knew is the porosity and gas saturations associated with MOU-3 / MOU-4, which apparently the company has on hand? As evidenced by their latest July 13th/11th release where they specifically comment on the average porosity and gas saturation of the Jurassic in MOU-4. Surely if they have that detail for the Jurassic, it shouldn't be too much to ask for the M1 / Ma / TGB / Moulouya Fan details as well? PRD has shown they're allowed to share that type of data. And given we haven't production tested the wells, I believe it's only rational to want to understand better how PRD determines their net pay cut offs (what porosity / gas saturation meets their cut off ). Does anyone know? I've tried to reach management, I've tried folks on twitter, I've emailed Lionel Therond and I am willing to reach out to more folks (just tell me who!).

I say this an a potential investor that would like to own the company, but won't until either I see a first production test for the Moulouya Fan or until someone can credible explain why I should believe these net pay sands are producible. Normally I wouldn't care about net pay cut-offs, as we would have production tests by the now for the a number of wells (which would support value for the company, or not depending on the result). However management has chosen to wait until MOU-1 --> MOU-4 were completely drilled before arranging for productions (I understand those production tests may be happening somewhat soon tho?). Would anyone be able to help me out?

Thanks in advance for your assistance.

https://oilnow.gy/featured/tt-hopes-to-court-more-investors-for-deep-water-onshore-acreage-with-revised-tax-terms/?fbclid=IwAR1q92Ffe3rYEE9Mxp_twQC_WNsp92y_soDfVvGPTe-3NV4lLMi2IEe3yrU

Winds of change friends. Might be an excellent time to be putting on production in T&T.

All good, I responded to the stockhouse board post just now. Will repeat the same here. I know that TXP has a number of different communities discussing and I like to share when I think there's something worthwhile. Same post as stockhouse below:

Yup, big fan of the drill schedule as well. Almost all development wells. I think Paul is going to more than make good on his promise for a wall of cash. Patience has been the key.

Thrilled for the sidetrack of the royston well deeper into the intermediate. Cherry on top would be tagging some of the subthrust (not required). I think we would be all very happy with ~1,000 of oil on test for 12 months until a formal EIA was approved for full feild development.

On Kracken, I didn't ask. I don't think now is the right time to talk about exploration upside with so much long hanging development fruit. Even the Royston sidetrack is more of a development well at this stage in my mind. With the extended exploration lease, TXP has plenty of time to get after those exploration locations in 2H 2023. Let's build a warchest from the development wells and then mgmt can make decisions on how to allocate to exploration/capital returns.

Sitting on a bit of an aggressive position on this one here for the full cycle now. Confident we will get there. Good luck to all that do the work.

Spoke to Paul. Quick thoughts below.

1. Coho timing is what it is, coming online as indicated in the release.
2. Cascadura online somewhere between 25th of sept - 22nd Oct depending on rain days.
3. Royston sidetrack's target is to hit the whole 500-600 feet of the intermediate not just the 90 gross / net 30 feet they got on the well when initially drilled. They only perfed ~30 feet which tested ~520 bbl/d. Well tubing can support 1,200 bbl/d of flow, which is their target with the addition intermediate interval. Potential to test subthrust if the drilling goes well.

Drilling schedule is as follows:
1) Coora well 1/2
2) Royston sidetrack
3) East Cascadura x 2
4) Coho 2
5) Cascadura x 4
6) Royston Intermediate/Subthrust - # of locations

Adding to what others have said.

1. $10M ish to develop Cascadura. I do wonder how much of that has already been spent prior to YE, suspect a couple million at least as a good chunk of the equipment doesn't start building until proposals and invoices are signed and paid.

2. Paul's laser focus on Coho/Cascadura production before commenting on their drill plan is the right one. Let's get to that wall of cash. Once we get cash flowing in a bigger way all the potential development and exploration available to us can become the focus again. Seems like Coho's basically done (photo evidence) and Cascadura's facility is well on track and running parallel to the EIA approval. Not many days to regulatory deadline for EIA (And this project is politically important re MOE meeting).

3. Appreciate XM and TXP reminding us of all their development and exploration potential. There's so much more opportunity here it's ridiculous. For example, I had no idea that Guabine has had 2 prior well penetrations and logs. Also appreciated the nod to Chinook. I think as cashflow starts coming in for TXP it isn't out of the realm of possible for TXP to have a discovery like Cascadura/Royston every year for a couple years.

If you believe in Coho/Cascadura, I am not sure there's a better development/exploration portfolio for $ anywhere else in the public markets. (I am biased tho as I am long as all get out, so take my view with a grain of salt ).

https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/touchstone-tells-energy-ministry-of-plans-to-increase-production-6.2.1471982.1b53e65598

If I am reading that right, it would appear that Paul has moved up Cascadura online date from September. His prior comments indicated that if they received approval in April as budgeted they'd start production in September. If he's talking about August, did we just get a big hint that confirmation of the EIA permits occurred with the MOE meeting?

That would help explain our run friday.

Yup, couldn't agree more that's what the most important milestone right now is not Coho, its the April/March EIA approval. My understand is once they have that the ball is in their court to deliver vs waiting on permits from regulatory bodies.

Spoke to Paul yesterday. Will put out a bit of a note later today maybe. Thought I'd let you know I heard that he's going down to T&T for the back end of March.

Yah so reached out to Paul on this, heard the following: We will truck to the facilities as we are during the test period until the pipeline is tied into a central battery. So revenue will come in while we build the facilities.

Given they're flowing revenue from the test point (pre-year end) and they plan to continue producing this way (as it's cashflow positive, my inference) I'd lean toward Royston having PDP for the first well. To each their own tho, could be they call it PNP even though they have a strong argument for why it should be considered PDP.

If those on this board haven't already, I'd highly recommend getting access to the footnote reference for the Penal/Barrackpore Field from the presentation. Think you can buy it for $20 bucks online?
Source: Penal/Barrackpore Field-West Indies South Trinidad Basin, Dyer Brian, L,; Cosgrove Philip, AAPG Treatise of Petroleum Geology, Atlas of Oil and Gas Fields A-25:
139-157, 1992.

Reading that report was a massive eye opener for me. I know it's from 1992 but it gives an excellent basis for what TXP may have discovered in Royston. The report is also the basis for the EUR of the 128M bbls for Penal/Barrackpore (estimate as of the end of 1988)... I wouldn't be surprised if it was possible to get a further updated report for 2020 if we found that the Penal/Barrackpore field recovered significantly more than they estimated it would in 1988. Which should help guide what the EUR is for Royston. Anyway food for thought.

I haven't asked mgmt this but I thought it was hinted at that Royston would be produced by trucking the effluent from wellsite to another TXP facility for processing and sale. If TXP is going that route, what exactly would be required to be considered tied in? A tank farm at the well site to truck from? Which presumably was already on site for the December production testing?

Will the initial Royston well show up as PNP or PDP? I am assuming they were able to sell some of their test production before year end, wouldn't that be enough to support PDP inclusion?

Monkey Junkey have you run any loose volumetric?

60-70m bbls for Overthurst and Intermediate? 100-120m bbls in total if subthrust comes in?

Management team buying on the back of the new PSC terms. Looks positive to me.

https://www.trans-globe.com/news/news-details/2020/TransGlobe-Energy-Corporation-Announces-DirectorPDMR-Shareholdings-a73931c15/default.aspx

https://www.hydracapital.ca/2020/12/08/a-transglobe-rerate-is-in-the-cards/

Bit busy this morning with my day to day job but I think I'll reach out to XM on this today and see what he thinks.

Not sure if a charity has been nominated or decided yet but I purpose we ask XM or PB? Perhaps giving back to a T&T charity makes sense here?

Figure the least I could do is share a bit of the TXP gains with the community that made it happen in someway.

Let me know if anyone figures this out, I am interested.

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=31997729

cross post on stockhouse, includes a table or two.

Cheers,
Moric

Thats not exactly right. XM responded to the image diagrams drawn on slide 11 last friday posted to facebook. Then again I think his time is better spent watching cascadura deep well details while drilling.

For what it's worth my margin increased by a big chunk this week, didn't realize it was TXP but it makes sense. I am TSX based. Thanks for pointing it out!