Member Info for Moric

Proselenes mapping led to some of my own. Posted it over on stockhouse for those who care to read.

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=31950288

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=31950294

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=31951213

Adding my 2 cents on delay related to road congestion.

https://imgur.com/a/uangSR3

The above is a satellite image as of April 2020. Chinook is alone in the jungle. I think I see why they don't want to try and squeeze other heavy test equipment by the only current available rig for TXP... Better safe than sorry.

Happy to wait for test results now that we know the resource is there. The resource isn't going anywhere between now and Q1 2021.

Thanks Proselenes!

Yes just off of Poole Valley Road.

I'll just leave this here, April 2020 photos.
https://www.filedropper.com/showdownload.php/touchstonepadsortoire

Cheers!

Not sure why my last post didn't show up on the main chat page. I did find a company with April 2020 satellite images, you can see both pads.

https://imgur.com/W3vNvtA

Alright I didn't pay for the hi-res. But reached out to a Satellite company to view their available catalogue. As of April 2020 I can see 2 pads roughly where I suggested. I'll see how much it costs to go hi-res...

https://imgur.com/EdZQnb9

Hey Guys,

I am almost 100% certain the facebook link in this original chain of chats is being misinterpreted. I am not sure why the map shows Balata east as the terminus of the road. The google maps Dana and Homebrew have been commenting on should be the Balata east development, 10 mmbbl pool discovered some time ago.

Here's a really shoddily drawn interpretation of where Cascadura / Chinook / Royston should be.
https://imgur.com/a/sT92nXK

Cascadura in my view is somewhere around here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/10%C2%B016'36.8%22N+61%C2%B010'47.4%22W/@10.2724815,-61.1806733,976m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m14!1m7!3m6!1s0x8c3607976350b6c5:0xff082855c639f127!2sTrinidad+and+Tobago!3b1!8m2!3d10.691803!4d-61.222503!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d10.2768758!4d-61.1798435

Chinook around here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/10%C2%B015'33.8%22N+61%C2%B010'50.3%22W/@10.2580342,-61.1816683,1198m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m14!1m7!3m6!1s0x8c3607976350b6c5:0xff082855c639f127!2sTrinidad+and+Tobago!3b1!8m2!3d10.691803!4d-61.222503!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d10.2593819!4d-61.1806435

Royston around here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/10%C2%B014'57.6%22N+61%C2%B006'35.6%22W/@10.249345,-61.1120727,1343m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m14!1m7!3m6!1s0x8c3607976350b6c5:0xff082855c639f127!2sTrinidad+and+Tobago!3b1!8m2!3d10.691803!4d-61.222503!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d10.2493446!4d-61.1098842

Take the above with a grain of salt. As you can probably tell I don't have shape files for these things. Also bear in mind that generally satellite data is a couple of years old for low population rural forests... No reason for a satellite company to take photos as no one is paying for the image...

That said if someone wants to track down one of the satellite companies and go splits on brand spanking new shots over those areas at high pixel detail, let me know! If it's a couple hundred bucks and we get a few of us in on it I would be tempted. XavMoon, maybe pitch the idea to Paul? It never hurts to show your work from space ;). Bonus points if you get us a night time shot with the flare burning!

Cross posting from stockhouse, hope your all having a fine day UK/EU.

Connected with the old energy minister for T&T and he had an interesting linkedin post today:

Natural Gas prod in T&T was 3.38 billion cu ft / day (bcfd) for the first 6 mts of 2020 compared to 3.63 bcfd for the same period in 2019, a 6.8% decline. This coupled with the impact of Covid 19 lockdowns will shock the T&T economy in 2020 into its largest annual decline since 1983.

Here's to hoping we find more gas, cause T&T needs all of it.

Thanks for posting it through Shellguy. The original post on stock house may be a bit easier to read as stockhouse allows formatting, link as follows: https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=31297618

We're in for a ride everyone! Good Luck to All the Longs!

On the size of Cascadura. We do not have a management estimate for it's total size. Paul Baay has mentioned the size of Cascadura could be 100s of BCF in interviews. However he hasn't provided a specific number range, and likely wont until a 3rd party reserve elevator provides that analysis. In comparison to Coho, 100 BCF would be equal to 16,666 Mboe. So every 100 BCF would be equal to ~5x the size of Coho. From TXP's news releases they mention that Coho could produce between 1,667 - 2,000 boe/d where as Cascadura could produce between 7,750 - 9,700 boe/d. Additionally TXP has mentioned that there may be multiple wells to drill at Cascadura, however we do not know how many at this time. Essentially the big question that remains unanswered at this time is how big is Cascadura?

As far as the world changing, I am not sure a whole lot is different in Trinidad. They are a large exporter of natural gas products and will continue to be in the future. What has changed world wide are oil prices due to Saudi and Russia fighting on oil price. Which thankfully haven't had much of an impact on natural gas prices as far as I am aware.

As far as why TXP is trading at this level my only speculation would be that the greater market disruption is having an impact on their share price. When investors think the sky is falling sometimes perception trumps reality. Fundamentally I like TXP a lot.

Woops left an extra sentence in there at the end. Please ignore lol.

Hey Tobin,

The purpose of oil and gas companies providing reserve reports it to give investors a measure for the company's NPV10 on a clearly defined resource that have a limited life. They are intended to help investors/management evaluate the value of their commodity production. Banks use these reserve reports to lend to oil and gas companies. This past March 26th, 2020, TXP reported their updated reserve report for year end 2019 that included the Coho well estimate for reserves . The production decline curve that generates the reserve estimate also provides the company with increased NPV10% value.

Cascadura reported it's production tests in the new year end were not included in the updated year end 2019 results. It is however possible using the initial production rates from the well test to estimate a decline production curve. Using a commodity price deck and some assumptions around cost it is then possible to generate what an NPV10% might look like for Cascadura.



Similar to TXP recieving reserves for their coho well this year when they reported on March 26th,

Tobin,

Are you familiar with the Net Present Value (NPV) Before Tax (BT) 10% discount rate calculation?

I would be curious to hear your thoughts on this previous post:
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=30835977

Thanks for the link to the Healy Energy review. I suspect Cannonball project is quite a bit different from Cascadura as it was offshore. It's stupid expensive to operate off shore platforms, such that you want to product all your BOE as quickly and consistently as possible. That and the initial wells can cost north of $40 million.

Best,
Moric

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=30835977

I believe the next update for Cascadura is an estimate of the prospect size from a third party evaluator. That evaluation will include a production rate. Would expect something out 45 days after the new release, so maybe april 25th? 30 days for the pressure shut-in test plus 15 days for a third party evaluator to provide their estimate. Perhaps the evaluator could be run concurrently and just plug in the pressure data last minute to finish the evaluation. So maybe earliest would be April 12th.

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.txp&postid=30804593

Did North sell another 1% of the stock in the last couple of days?

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6778224/Standard-form-for-notification-of-major-holdings