Member Info for moorhey

I respect your opinion Finley1, as I too have worked in construction for 44 years now (started March 1980).

What you have to take into account is the UK's absolute obsession with immigration, and that housing policy has been hamstrung for decades by policies which have been proven to not work - in fact they have made the housing problem worse.

Major housebuilders, like Taylor Wimpey, have absolutely no interest in building homes for the masses (that is people who cannot afford to pay £400k-plus for a new home). So I agree with you, a housebuilding target of 300,000 homes pa will not make a jot of difference to major private housebuilders.

What has to (and almost certainly will) happen, thanks to the massive majority Labour have, is

a) a repeal of right-to-buy; so that councils can build social housing without fear of being forced to sell.

b) allowing councils to borrow to build in order to finance the building of social housing.

c) if it's councils who are building, and councils who are in control of planning, then the houses will come - but they wont be built by the likes of Taylor Wimpey.

d) to build houses requires labour, and there's not enough skilled labour in the UK construction industry, so we can expect a relaxation of the working visa legislation to allow European skilled labour into the UK to build the homes we need - small homes for rental as social housing.

As of today, 25% of adults in the UK are over retirement age, and that percentage is growing. So whether people like it or not, the UK needs immigration; if only to service the growing care industry and to prop-up the NHS.

Taylor Wimpey will ultimately benefit, as there will always be people who want to live in a bigger, more spacious home, separate from the rest, and a relaxation in planning legislation will allow them to do that.

And if Labour raise inheritance tax forcing older parents to cash-in and downsize, passing on wealth to their kids early (instead of at death), then those kids will be able to afford to buy the homes that Taylor Wimpey will be building. When I retire in 2 years time, that's what we'll be doing.

I was a 5 year investor in KWS: started buying at around 1200, rode the wave up to +3000; held my nerve during the drop to 2000, and then bought more as she came back to touch 3000 again before the collapse. If it wasn't for Putin, the SP would be 4000+ by now. I sold out completely in Sept-23 (thankfully, I'd cashed-in 80% of my holding before then, or I may have had a date with a revolver). Good luck to whoever buys this as I reckon they've bought it cheap.

I agree with you moneybox007.

Sure, there are some better performers on the IT lists, but they are sector driven - not global - so first you have to choose the right race, before choosing the horse.

With JGGI you are backing the stable.

Probably due to a) inflation stalling - prices are still +10% higher than they were in December 2022 but it's likely that 2) pay reviews have plugged some of the gap caused by inflation. However, as disposable income has been eroded to the point when nobody has any (by nobody, I mean 90% of the population - not those reading this LSE forum); what's the point of new clothing if you cannot afford to go out anywhere to spend it; which is why hospitality is still under the cosh.

As someone who has been invested in KWS for almost 5 years, I'm taken-aback by the fall in SP value in the past 6 months; it just makes no sense - but then the value of the company 6 months ago wasn't based on "now" but on future expectations. In year ending 31Dec2022, the company generated Eu68m profit on Eu691m t/o (approx 10%) and was valued at Eu2.45bn by the market. If you had Eu2.45bn jingling in your pocket, would you have bought KWS, or put the money into the banks paying 1.25%pa? KWS is a speculative investment, always has been - you are (in my opinion) hoping that the company develops a product (be it game, application, software etc) that is a "game changer". What is unfortunate, is that while the opportunity for that speculative breakthrough hasn't changed one jot, the recession background (war, inflation, food and energy shortages, nationalist governments) has forced the market to be more fundamental driven than speculative driven. On fundamental values, the SP could drop another 30% maybe even 50% to 760-800 because the turnover is just not good enough to justify the SP. It's a tough nut to crack - and much as I don't want to, I'm probably going to have to close my position completely. This is a great entry point for an optimist with a long time-frame; but that's not me unfortunately.

KWS has announced the appointment of Robert Kingston as its new chief financial officer from 1 July 2023.

The company added that Jon Hauck, its current chief financial officer, will assume the role of chief operating officer on 1 July, ensuring a smooth transition of responsibilities within the company's leadership structure.

Keywords noted that Kingston brings with him a wealth of experience in finance and operations within the technology and media sectors. His previous position was as CFO of Flutter Entertainment's UK and Ireland division, where he showcased his abilities in managing finance for acquisitive and internationally-focused companies. Prior to that, he held several senior finance and operational roles at Sky PLC over a span of 25 years, including finance director of Sky's Content Business and group director of Investor Relations.

And not a mention of anything from the BoD - are they all on holiday?

The SP is down 25% in May, and there appears to be no bottom to the fall-off developing. It looks likely that the SP will drop below 1952 that was touched in March 2022 - but for the life of me I've no idea why.

Why sell at 824?

Plenty of support following todays news on the acquisition. The future looks bright.

I really don't understand the relationship of todays results (which are good) and the SP

Up 8% yesterday, down 5% today - WTF is going on?

Prospects are looking positive - the SP has grown almost 10% since 1st Nov 22 (slow & steady); the discount is 13% and is reducing, historically it's usually about 5%.

15 months on from hitting an all-time-high of 3302 on 3rd Sept 2021, KWS hits a 12-month high of 3056 on 2nd Dec 2022.
In between, there's been plenty of ups and downs (1950 on 7th March 2022), but the recent trend has been up - as has been the trading figures. Fingers crossed that we see an SP of 4000+ in 2023.

It really doesn't make sense that this has reduced in market value by 30% in a week

WTF

For 8-weeks we've had a continuous slide in the SP, and who knows what the SP would be now if the share buy-back policy wasn't in place? We seem to have moved from a position of optimism.

Seems like I identified the low-point: the SP is up to 1289

A drop of 3% from yesterdays close of 1320p - currently (10:40am) the SP is at 1275.
No obvious reason as far as I know.
Anyone have any ideas?

I agree @devonplay: large discounts to NAV are not uncommon, they are the "norm". So when to sell is all about personal judgement, as you're most unlikely to obtain an SP close to NAV. I was hoping for 160+ but I'm likely to offload most of my holding for 145+ now - whenever that occurs next.