Member Info for moorhey

ThePunter1: Today's action was not unexpected, given the SP has gone from 32p (when I bought my initial 25,000 shares) to 140 yesterday. And when I look at other parts of my portfolio, they've all dipped due to BTC and the crypto markets taking a good kicking. Phone traders dealing in sums under £1,000 are jittery as they may not have enough to pay this months rent! Nothing has changed regards BRH in the past 3-weeks, and nothing changed today.
I'm not expecting an RNS tomorrow, nor on Thursday, and I doubt there will be one on Friday.
The Government works weekends now (due to Covid) and I expect test results will be tabled at government level over the weekend, and the RNS will be issued at 7am on Monday morning, 1st March.
Hold on to your hats!

This is the sort of market movement we will see a lot more of with people trading from phones with pocket-money amounts. Nearly every sale recorded was under £1,000 in value.

I remember Paysafe about 4 years ago - dropped from about 380 to 180 in about 30 mins (and I bought a 1000 at 3rd time of asking at 210 - was refused at 190 and 200) and the SP was back up to 350 before close of business! Paysafe went private for 520 a share (I bought in at 165).

Bought mine at 34p - long way to go yet before I get sweaty

Thanks for that mjng: there is a possibility of poor results, but that's all. Missed the boat? Is Covid only in the UK? Any idea what 500,000 people have died of in the USA? No contracts? If tests good and approval granted, there will be no problem with contracts - even Liam Fox could negotiate them with his mate David Davis. No Cash to take forward - hmmm, have you not heard of licensing? There are testing plans for the Government of UK, all 20-30 min tests - that's a lot of people standing around in isolation. Yes, the vaccine programme and immunisation is working well here in the UK and Israel - not sure about Germany, France, Italy, Spain ....... Zaire, Zimbabwe. Lockdown ending does not mean Covid free, unless the Brits never leave the UK ever again: no one in, no one out. Too late to the party? Covid has only just got going - it will still be significant in 5 years. There is risk, I'm under no illusions - and that risk s the possibility of poor results.

DaProphet: if you search my posts (there aren't many) you will see one on 17th Feb that - on tests of 75 million a week in the UK (alone) - with a license fee paid to BRH by the manufacturer of the test of 1p per test (reasonable, based on a test cost of £1 each) then the license for the UK market could sell for £40-50 million. That would (after taxes and fees to BRH and Paraytec) release about £35 million to shareholders as a Special Dividend; ie £1. However, if the test works in the UK, it will work elsewhere too - and selling the license to Europe, Asia and US/Canada could pull-in another £200m - that would generate further Special Dividends of over 500p per share.
BRH will not manufacture a single test for sale.
Or - the test may not get approval.
You pay your money, and you make your choice! DYOR

DaProphet: I can't speak for others, but I was discussing this with my son last night (works with Goldman Sachs - not bragging, just adding some context) and I'm under no illusions that if the test results are inconclusive or worse, then this will tank - probably to 15p, maybe 20p if we are lucky.

Wolves2211: there are hundreds, many thousands, of posts on this thread since mid-January, and mine amongst them have hinted at "balance": with reward there is always risk. So please don't think that if your comment isn't answered directly that it's being ignored. Unfortunately, a lot of people look at the markets as a glorified casino, and they will always throw ridicule rather than fact at a contrary argument or position, that's just human nature. Those with larger positions (ie more than 20,000 shares) know the risks, but they are also aware of the potential rewards.
Overall, I've a degree of confidence (based on Paraytec's track-record with this test so far, and government intentions stated by the PM on Monday (which sparked this uplift from a close of 35p on Friday last week) that mass testing is the way forward for public events. You can be sure some mandarins secured BRH shares on Monday morning when they saw the PM's draft speech!

Hi dusterhater: in reply to your earlier post "is that 1p just plucked from thin air or do you have any workings for that 1p moorhey ? because that 1p could just as easy be 10p could it not ? if so then your end figure of 500p would be 50000p or not £5 per share but £50 per share imo".
Yes, my 1p is essentially a gut-feeling number, but with a bit of thought to it.
At 75 million tests a week, that's almost 4 billion tests a year, and (with that sort of volume) the test container will cost almost nothing, probably 10 a penny, maybe 100 a penny. The actual test solution, what goes into the container, is where the cost is as (for this volume) dedicated factories of high spec will be needed - they don't grow on trees, so we are talking big capital investment.
At the end of the day, testing (unlike vaccination) will be commercially-led; the public (via entry fees and ticket prices) will foot the bill, not the government. So the end-user cost has to be reasonable. The vaccinations are costing £7 each (or thereabouts) and that is at "cost" not for profit, and the government is paying. If I need 2 tests a day, I will not be paying £7 each, and neither will 99% of the public - the cost of a test has to be negligible or there will be no take-up; hence my £1 a test figure. Only countries with some degree of wealth will be following a testing regime.
From that £1, the more the company accountants can include for costs of capital expenditure, license fees, distribution, recycling, etc the less of that £1 will go to HMRC in Corporation Tax on profits. So I think 1p per test is a reasonable estimate on 4 billion tests a year in the UK - especially when the end-user cost may not be £1, it could be something like 50p.

Hi dusterhater: "is that 1p just plucked from thin air or do you have any workings for that 1p moorhey ? because that 1p could just as easy be 10p could it not ? if so then your end figure of 500p would be 50000p or not £5 per share but £50 per share imo". Yes, my 1p is essentially a gut-feeling number as is your 10p.
At 75 million tests a week, that's almost 4 billion tests a year, and (with that sort of volume) the test container will cost almost nothing, probably 10 a penny, maybe 100 a penny. The actual test solution, what goes into the container, is where the cost is as (for this volume) dedicated factories of high spec will be needed - they don't grow on trees, so we are talking big capital investment.
At the end of the day, testing (unlike vaccination) will be commercially-led; the public (via entry fees and ticket prices) will foot the bill, not the government. So the end-user cost has to be reasonable. The vaccinations are costing £7 each (or thereabouts) and that is at "cost" not for profit, and the government is paying. If I need 2 tests a day, I will not be paying £7 each, and neither will 99% of the public - the cost of a test has to be negligible or there will be no take-up; hence my £1 a test figure.
From that £1, the more the company accountants can include for costs of capital expenditure, license fees, distribution, recycling, etc the less of that £1 will go to HMRC in Corporation Tax on profits. So I think 1p per test is a reasonable estimate on 4 billion tests a year in the UK.

Casper786: I need to clarify what you mean with this statement: "if above is achieved then forget £1 £2 £3.....we will SMASH past £5+ in matter of days/weeks.....as CONTRACT across the GLOBE start to come in..."
Yes - when (not if, when) the test gets approval for use, the value for BRH (and Paraytec) is in selling the license/patent to manufacturing companies - and it comes down to what companies are prepared to pay for that license, to enable them to market and sell. Personally, I think there's a market for 75 million tests a week in the UK alone, but that will take an absolutely huge manufacturing capability - and neither Paraytec not BRH is a manufacturing company. At 75 million tests per week, what would be the end-user cost? At just £1 per test we are talking about a £4 billion industry. Deduct manufacturing and distribution costs, and profit and I reckon you are down to about 1p per test to buy the license to manufacture. So, my gut feeling is that the UK license would sell for about £50 million; the EU License maybe £200 million. Take off taxes, fees by BRH, and Paraytec bonuses etc, and you'd be left with about £180 million to issue as a special dividend. That - if my maths is right - is about 500p. That's cool!

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/chester-unveil-plan-for-testing/189251
I hope the link works, this is on the Sportinglife website.
Chester have plans to use COVID-19 tests on up to 5,000 racegoers per day for their big May Festival as they look to welcome back crowds. The oldest operating racecourse in the world say they've developed a sector leading mass lateral flow testing programme and are working on a series of fully socially distanced raceday experiences that will utilise the latest technological advancements to bring racing fans back to the sport safely. Under the plan every racegoer would be tested for COVID-19 on-site on arrival. The mass-venue testing could take place in three separate testing sites, enabling 1,800 lateral flow tests per hour to take place at the racecourse.
This is the future! And (hopefully) BRH and Paraytec Ltd will be the market leaders.

At least I know there is someone else who is sensible on this board, and won't post me an old link that tells me Poland has just been invaded, or make half-baked claims of potential share value without any substance. With this test, its a race - and it's winner takes all. Nobody remembers the silver medallist in the Olympic final. And this Prof Carl Smythe on twitter worries me a bit, I'd rather he got on with his job and stopped posting a running commentary.

I suspect that you are right Sheltie. What is good though is that there is some demand for the few shares that are available. I managed to top-up my holding to 30,000 shares earlier this week, so every penny makes me £300. If this goes the way I hope it will, then some time next month I'm going to call up my boss and tell him to shove it where the sun don't shine.

NeutronDonor: do you actually read these posts, or just your own? Weeks ago, it was suggested (probably by Paraytec) that this test had the ability for multiple uses, including early detection of cancer, and that it wasn't a "one-hit-wonder". I think it was you even, who suggested that was the "beauty" of this test. My comment on cancer was that if the test did detect multiple ills - like cancer - then the social aspects of use would have to be taken into account if the test was to be positively adopted by the person on the street. I'm an investor in BRH, just like you. Only I don't shoot posts off without thinking first.

Great news on the RNS.
For me the key words are the requirement still to " test operational parameters"; and "Results from this phase of clinical testing are now expected by the end of February".
This sentence "It is already clear that current vaccines are not 100% effective and the infection risk is being compounded by the emergence of new strains of the COVID-19 virus" has been overtaken by today's news on the Novavax vaccine - this is a fast-moving environment, and the quicker the test hits the market, the better for investors. Once vaccines have been introduced to the majority of the population, the need for a test becomes reduced, that is plain common-sense.
How the market accepts this RNS depends on what the future sales may be in a World were the majority of wealthy countries have a vaccine that works.
Paraytec have to pull their finger out and get this test approved and on the market - FAST!

Great trading update at 7am this morning:
12% organic revenue growth despite COVID-19 constraints.
There's your answer PETR76, the info to put that RNS out was available yesterday (to those in-the-know) and they've gone out and bought shares.

Finally NeutronDonor, you have written something sensible :
"See something I don’t understand why is the share not going up, who on earth is selling?"

Hi Neutrondonor: filling-up the timeline on this thread with "chaff" is intimating that you are starting to panic and clutch at straws. If there is nothing to say, then (in my opinion) say nothing - please!!!

NeutronDonor: unless the shares trades provided by LSE are wrong and unreliable, yesterday (by my count) only 140,000 shares in BRH were sold. Sheltie says that he bought 10,000 of them, and chances are most of the other buyers - as the majority of the trades were under 5,000 shares (less than £3,000) - are on this forum, or aware of it. What we must take comfort from is that nobody is selling in volume, and those that are selling are not selling under 45p. I have my 25,000 (bought at 32p), and I will hang on to them until the test results are published.

Woohoo! Get in there!
Somebody has bought £2,000 worth of shares - we're all gonna be rich.
Justice2u: we're not watching a football match, we don't need a running commentary on share purchases that represent 0.0001 of the company market value.