RE: My update.27 Feb 2022 22:18
Gaza
You're analysis is right. Putin hasn't grasped that we're in the 21st century (mobile phones were a novelty even in 2003 when Iraq v2 was going on) and has completely underestimated Ukrainian resistance, international sentiment and completely over estimated the capability of Russian forces and Chinese support.
It's a house of cards.
Russia has a history of being saved by geography and alliances, but it has no alliances of note and the geography of Ukraine is an impediment.
It's going to get ugly this week. He's gone 'nuclear' already. Writing is on the wall. He's relying on the Chinese to prop him up, and they're already istancing themselves and allowing social media 'noise' for peace...ie they've seen enough already....the promised 3/4 capitulation has failed and China isn't going to get involved in a drawn out guerilla war. I t needs to trade with the West.
Personally, I'm hoping it carries on for a few weeks so I can feed a new ISA with £20k worth of ultra cheap EUA stock, but I think Putin will have taken his neck out of the noose by then...hopefully.
I've donated to the Ukrainian refugee charities and am looking forward to seeing mercenary videos of Russian forces being smoked in the snow.
It is what it is, but longer term (bust rouble, desperate trade needs, green economy etc), this is still a winner.
From an investment pov, those who can see longet term will make some real cash here.
Meantime, I hope the Russians get humiliated.
Slav Ukrayna