Wilco, Database, Putinistas...29 Sep 2025 21:32
Gemini, can you give me a summary of Russian budget forecasts for 2026?
Yes, I can, here you go...
The draft 2026 Russian federal budget, approved by the government and set for parliamentary review, has several key parameters and changes:
Key Financial Figures (Approximate):
Revenues: Projected at around 40.3 trillion rubles (approx. $483.4 billion).
Expenditure: Projected at about 44 trillion rubles (approx. $538.4 billion).
Deficit: The stated target from the Finance Minister is a deficit of 1.6% of GDP. However, the raw ruble figures (a shortfall of about 4.6 trillion rubles) suggest a deficit closer to 2.0-2.2% of GDP, based on the Economy Ministry's nominal GDP forecast.
Major Policy Changes and Priorities:
Taxes: To help fund the deficit and increase revenue, the draft budget includes a proposal to raise the general Value-Added Tax (VAT) rate from 20% to 22%, effective January 1, 2026. This revenue is reportedly earmarked for defense and security spending.
Defense and Security Spending: For the first time since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, the draft budget shows a slight reduction in national defense spending in 2026, though total spending on defense and security remains very high, at about 7% of GDP. These allocations remain a top priority.
Economic Growth Forecast: The Ministry of Economic Development has revised its forecast for 2026 GDP growth down to 1.3% (from an earlier 2.4%), bringing it closer to the Bank of Russia's conservative estimates.
Social and Infrastructure Spending: Significant funding is allocated to social programs (pensions, family support) and infrastructure projects (transport, roads, public transit modernization, school construction).
The budget's main objectives are stated as maintaining macroeconomic stability, prioritizing defense and security, and sustaining social support, particularly for families of war participants, amidst ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges. The proposed tax increases and the debate over the actual size of the deficit highlight the financial pressures facing the country.
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