Member Info for Monty888

I’m

Glad you see through me Crafty as I’m

Totally transparent in my posts and perspectives. You acknowledge the importance of the debt costs (finally) but don’t see that it’s window dressed as I shared. MM is selling the family silver, he’s selling many businesses at way less than he purchased them for. As you say more to sell. So this makes THG practically uninvestable to serious PI’s. They need stability, transparency - What is THG paying Ingenuity for and in money? Can THG generate real net profit from product sales (No evidence at all to date). I would be so happy to see the next numbers kick all my concerns to the kerb, however I’m 64 years old and not too stupid to think more BS coming from MM. It may be deliberate because I can’t see how he cares or has the slightest interest in the companies co

Owners (Us shareholders). As said Matt prove wrong, make me eat my words and suspicions your a complete uncaring selfish A-hole.

100not out - Your clueless mate, go some research and understand EBITDA especially what “I” stands for.

Sparsam - Your bearish post looks way more factual than most of the fools ramping on here who naively don’t get the PAT vs Debt metrics which remove all BS if both are going in right direction. (PAT significantly increasing & debt significantly reducing). People forget we were promised this highly cash generative profitable, debt free dividend paying share when approving the split - The audited numbers tell a very different story. It is possible next results will show progress but having seen MM’s non stop BS and art of window dressing failure I’ve personally lost all faith. A T/O will never happen as he can block that in many ways such as binding expensive contracts with Ingenuity + Him and Lord Lucan plus cronies have all the voting rights they need. We need to beam Crafty back down to earth I think as he is on Mars right now and falling for the spin.

Enjoyed your prom Sparsam. Very accurate judge of character 👍🤗

Crafty - What the PAT?

You’re missing the bigger picture on how cleverly MM window dresses failure.

Charlie Munger said transfer EBITDA for BS earnings.

Learn how companies do RNS’s and look at net profit vs debt as a ratio (3x is ok, more isn’t). There are gamblers and their are investors - You my friend are an out and out gamblers (As I was breaking my own investment rules on THG). Hard lessons….

I’m wondering if a broker has an agreed stock build and re sell price to acquire more shares and then make a bid. We know they have 9.5% would be a perfect fit especially on the global distribution costs. Seems they are in the middle of a successful trial with Molsen doing Fever’s US / Canada distribution. They could potentially grab Fever for about 1250p ps if they act fairly quickly. If they drag their feet the SP will rise and they would need to make a higher bid than 1250 in say another 6 months. What do fellow investors think to this theory / possibility & strong buy recommendation as I see it now please?

I lol in on 3 B&M’s in Sussex quite frequently and they are all very busy (2 to 3 tills on the go).

I’m not sure in the exact correlation to profit of course but the stores look good and seem to have most lines about right, food seems a little slower than all the other items. Looking at valuations I can related to a nav ps of 250p. I think we are in an uptrend with good leadership and 12 months of patience will yield a superior investment return at current pricing.

Hi Crafty,

The weasley words in the updates didn’t refer to a PAT I’m afraid, been here before with all these misleading updates only to find a different story in the published accounts time after time. Let’s see anyway - As always the devil is in the detail. If there is genuine profit after tax that’s relatively significant and not from selling the family silver to window dress for sure the SP should re rate significantly upwards. I for one am totally cynical now and expectations on the floor. I am a big holder and in tears right now.

Remember revenue isn’t a driver of the SP any more nor is EBITDA = BS for earnings). In recent times it’s always really been about can the company make any profit after tax (PAT). That metric never lies and it’s what dividends are paid out of and it’s what improves the cash position over time. THG can’t / won’t make PAT, window dresses everything else. T/O value / opportunity never going happen MM & cronies are majority shareholders. It’s become a dog now, too low to sell but likely never to make a meaningful return - Wish I’d never brought in and chased average price down but I did and that’s my stupidity. Might yet be surprised in next audited results but don’t think so. It’s all financial engineering of selling businesses and funny money tricks to make everything look ok. If it’s really ok we would see nice PAT (Don’t hold your breath me thinks). GLA.

I’m very bullish on this at under 30p. Revenue is always lumpy but it’s getting the cladding issues behind it now.

That’s what happens when you make no profit after tax because you’re overpaying for Ingenuity services and an immoral CEO. Can’t compare the valuations to well run companies with shareholders interests at heart I’m afraid folks.

A small drop today, can’t buy a buisiness, so so numbers and expect a positive outcome - The devil will be in the detail in the late April results. Expect it to tread water meanwhile.

Last thing we need to do is start buying bankrupt companies out of administration. We need to see profit after tax and debt reduction. We need to see the MM statement about THG being so profitable it can pay nice dividends - Track record shows he is very Trumpian in his BS. (Ideally we need it sold off so we can get out of what I suspect are overtly expensive service contracts such as Ingenuity (maybe others overpriced business SaaS under the radar also - Whoever really knows with this bunch at the helm under the Glorious Leader). Checks and balances are virtually non existent as we all know!

We can see Y/E EBITDA est is c £450M. Nicely profitable, generates a decent bottom line. The downward revision encompasses some restructuring costs, IT and Financial system upgrades. Earnest & Young (EY) costs - All of which together are substantial + SKU reductions clearance and onboarding costs of the new team. It all bodes well and aside all the above revenue is Like 4 like forecast to come in around 3.5% higher Y/E. I think we may see more Director purchases at prices below 170p. Most current broker consensus are at a mean of 200p which right now I think is fair value. Once costs can be shown to be nicely absorbed in next results should get up to c. 300p SP - I note France loves B&M and growth is a tear there. I’m sure that’s where new store investments will be strategically targeted. I’m long at under 200p.

Marty - Your math sucks, stop embarrassing yourself man

James - There are no profits, only promises of profits - This is the issue with THG. Anyone can ‘buy’ revenue just drop your selling prices. Ultimately companies only run on profit after tax aka cash generating once debt is repaid

The bad news was already in the price, note the Director buys, the reduced numbers will come in at the top end (under promise / over deliver). Seems the II’s and the smart money know this and are using the updates today to buy in as we now see the SP uplifting. Next results release will corroborate I’m sure.

Update not too bad, new BOD doing a usual kitchen sinking. Longer term / next hard results 190p to 200p expected.

I noticed Pounland in Littlehampton was almost deserted, also their stock ranges not great and their prices not any cheaper than Tesco or Asda. I think B&M does have better product lines and cheaper on most things compared to the big 4 Super markets. In my area and I look in quite a lot, nearly always 2 rows of paying punters since Christmas when it was very busy - I have a feeling tomorrows update could be really good and I’m hoping it’s turnaround time for the SP which I believe to be about 40% lower than fair value at 169p. Let’s see, not long to wait now fellow investors.

I think now they are getting really big and clearly superbly run it might be time to upgrade to a full listing. Should go straight into FTSE 250. That would in turn open Volex up to all those large investment companies whose caveats forbid them to buy AIM stocks because they are not so well regulated. Defiantly one to tuck away in a SIPP or ISA.