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It's nice that it is up today, but listening to the presentation did, especially when he said that they have set many of the assays up post FDA clearance, leave me wondering why they did not have more of this in place prior to the clearance.
I remember, several years ago, one of the analysts quizzing them about monetarising Parsortix and AN saying how they were focused on this, in retrospect it seems that at that time they were not focused enough.
At least it seems like they are now starting to build the collaborations and develop the assays to generate income to grow the company .
I was rather disappointed with the valuation gains in the last two updates , most have now moved past the September lows but do not show the same uplift that has been seen in the listed market. It seems that in practice the managers were reluctant to mark valuations down in the first half of last year and have held them steady assumedly until they eventually even out again with the listed markets,
On a more positive note cash flow has been better than I thought it may, I had expected more calls and (even) lower distributions than has been the case. Hopefully, as indicated, they will be able to take advantage of depressed prices in their markets to add assets to the portfolio.
Blackrock have started to flag the potential for PE for the first time in quite a while, indicating that the best vintages appear after periods of downturn.
''we continue to favor sizable private market allocations in strategic portfolios relative to conventional portfolios.
But with increased macroeconomic volatility, we also see the potential for more opportunities within private markets
too. We find buyout vintages – a set of private equity buyouts made in a particular year – following an economic
downturn tend to outperform, reflecting more attractive valuations and future growth prospects''
It has been slowly recovering with the Ivz AT1 now (after a couple of bumps) now trending nicely upwards and is comfortably at its highest since the problems at CS, even although it is still well down from Februarys highs.
However, in a sign that confidence is returning , a Jananese Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. just sold 140 billion yen ($1 billion) of AT1 debt, becoming the first major global bank to issue such notes since the finance-sector crisis erupted last month.
'The sale is one of the largest deals in the yen corporate bond market so far this year, indicating that at least in Japan there’s firm demand for the riskier debt sold by local lenders. Another big Japanese bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., is also planning a two-part AT1 bond deal as soon as mid-May.'
Although not likely to be imminent, the next big jump would come if one of the major European banks calls and reissues.
It is reassuring to see them delivering targets on time; it is not uncommon to have early stage implementation glitches, so either they have avoided them or managed them well.
It all goes to build confidence for the relationship with GKN and also any potential future customers who are looking to use their service.
Given the pipeline of work the already have in place, at 34p it has now become cheap, so hopefully we will see a deserved rerate.
Monthly factsheet for March just out-
PY is now 11.27% with an MtM of 14.96% and a Wal of 3.4years (on a share price of 100.5p).
So for a similar share price to the previous month the PY has increased by over 1%
It will also depend on the default levels. There is enough margin for these to increase and for us still to have a good return; if the recession does turn out to be shallow and defaults don't get too high then the rewards could, as you indicate, be to the upside.
I don't know, I am sure that they will have traded some of the portfolio over a turbulent past year but how this has impacted on the distributable income figure is hard to gauge.
As I understand it the repo borrowing is essentially gearing so perhaps that cost them in the falling market but has now enhanced income as things have reversed? Bips treats the leverage element outside of the stated headline purchase yield, perhaps TFIF does the same.?
At the end of Feb (when the nav was 100.2) the purchase yield was 9.93%, the MtM was 14.46% and the wal was 3.3years. I am also looking at 9-10 p divi (depending on interest rate changes over the year) with a 12 % capital gain over the next three years.
I appreciate that it gives liquidity, but personally I think that they do it more to increase the aum which increases revenue to the company ...
If they issued them after the ex-divi date then there would be less dilution of the revenue account. I cannot remember which IT is was, but I do remember the manager stating they had a policy of not issuing new shares too near the ex divi date for this reason.
It is rather minor and certainly does not change my opinion of investing here but if the demand is strong why not issue at a 4-5% premium which would definitely mean it was of benefit to existing holders?
I will quiz them at the next opportunity.
Surely the EPS will effectively decrease by 1.2%? Also, in addition to the dilution effect there will be brokerage fees for the sales but also for the purchasing of new assets with the money raised.
I have listened to the manager of NCYF say that it dilutes existing holders if issuance is at much less than 5% premium.
' Considerable care is taken not to dilute the revenue account, and
the manager wants to be sure that any new issuance can cover itself in terms of
revenue income generated until the next ex-dividend date. It would appear that the
board is open to providing liquidity to the market at the 5% to 6% premium level'
I know that many IT's issue at around 2% but I am still to be convinced that it is for the benefit of existing holders, especially as in this case when it is so close to a significant ex-divi date.
Unless I am missing something then the answer is no!
9.2M shares at a 2p premium- difference between latest nav and issue price -(assuming no costs ) benefits existing holders by £184,000.
if the div payment is 3p/share for 718M shares that is around £21,5M in total, so a 1.2% dilution of this (9.2M/718M) is £258,000 and this does not take into account dilution of any other reserves.
Beyond the extra liquidity for the company to purchase new investments it is hard to see that there is anything but a loss for existing holders when we are so close the the ex divi date.
(and they still have over 30M left under their latest block listing)
There certainly is a strong demand, they issued 9.2M share today to try to keep a cap on the price.
I do wonder whether the premium they are issued at this near to the ex div date is ever enough to compensate existing holders for the dilution in reserves especially after taking into account broker costs etc
Nav is now 161.4, however with the recession fear now in play it looks like the AT1's are peaking for now. I think the next (At1 driven) steps up will be more gradual until one of the banks calls one in and reissues. One of the Japanese banks had planned on a AT1 issuance but has now pulled it.
The yield on Bips is currently 7.14% so I am happy enough to sit and let the pull to par unwind over a few years.
They have got permission for their new winery, now we await how it will be funded and what happens to he existing facilities that they have just expanded! I believe that Quinn's may be involved so expect it to all come with the addition of a bit of housing....
From KM-
'Plans for a huge new winery in the Kent countryside have narrowly been given the go-ahead in a controversial decision.
Councillors said there were “exceptional” reasons for granting the bid by Chapel Down for an area of outstanding natural beauty (AONB) near Canterbury.
The £32 million project will see the UK’s biggest English sparkling wine producer relocate its production facilities from Tenterden to farmland at Canterbury Business Park, off the A2 near Bridge.
The city council’s planning committee approve the scheme at a meeting yesterday evening, despite objections from countryside campaigners and watchdogs.
The pros and cons of the application at Highland Court Farm, submitted by business park bosses, divided councillors - with permission eventually being granted seven votes to five after a near hour-long debate.
The proposal is for a 120m x 100m, 42ft high production building for Chapel Down and two further smaller storage warehouses, including one for bespoke wine producer Defined Wine, which already operates from the site.
Chapel Down chief executive Andrew Carter told councillors the company was on a mission “to change the way the world thinks about English wines forever”.
Nav up 1.5p in the week to now sit at 100.9.
Over the past year they have been reducing their holding of CMBS, one of the current areas of greatest concern, they now only hold 5% in this class in TFIF.
BAMAKO, March 30 (Reuters) - Transitional authorities in Mali will review mining contracts after an official audit of the sector advised that the state was not receiving a fair share of gold-mining revenue, the council of ministers said on Wednesday.
Mali is one of Africa's largest producers of gold, which is its top export. Companies operating in the country include Barrick Gold Corp ABX.TO and Resolute Mining (RSG) .
The council said an action plan would be implemented and would include creation of a commission to renegotiate mining deals, a move to repatriate cash earned from gold exports and the adoption of a mining sector environmental code.
"The action plan will be implemented via a participatory approach, including the mining companies themselves," it said in a statement without providing a schedule for the measures.
Soon after coming to power in a 2020 coup, the military junta vowed to review mining contracts signed with companies by previous administrations.
I thought it may send the shares down but perhaps the potential to resolve the vat issue and put taxes on a clearer footing is considered a positive.