Member Info for moneyspider

It seems that the energy supplier market is changing, with companies like Fuse Energy and TEM Energy models where they sell renewable energy direct to the customer bypassing the wholesale energy market and claiming to be 30% cheaper than others. Fuse has grown massively, now valued at £5B. Can't see YU with their old fashioned model surviving - maybe a good time to short.

Why is it that the board are paid huge bonus and salaries for a company that has not performed? The bonus is linked to Ebitda, which is easy to increase if they borrow more and buy businesses with positive Ebitda. Surely, the bonus should be linked to share price performance. They should return their bonus and re-write the rules.

The trading update didn't read very well and looks like they are running out of cash. I suspect that Bayford will lend money to the business on a secured basis, they won't be able to pay back and Bayford will get the business at an equity value of zero.

The risk here is that Smartest are also running a similar model to CNG and has had several supplier failures. Smartest are funding YU with credit in the millions, so need to be very careful.

2 new suppliers with 500k customers have just gone bust. The rest are sure to follow which will only leave the big players who have their own metering businesses (and do not need to use SMS) - can see a short squeeze on SMS coming!

Not really, Good Energy have generation assets and the massive increases in the energy market wholesale prices will not affect them as much as others. 2 suppliers have gone bust today - Utilitypoint and Peoples Energy - over 1/2 million customers. YU will need to buy energy at rates well above the level it expected to balance customers supply - will hit their margins. Have decided to bail out, the energy market is bust.

Been some significant buying action over the past few days - someone knows something, perhaps a bid coming?

EON got HUB's customers - the big players win out again.

How can Ecotricity with their losses and going concerns statement that casts doubt on the business make a credible offer for the business? I first thought it should be the other way round but looking at Ecotricity's accounts don't think that they are worth more than a £1 and they support a football team (crazy business). Having said that, I think that to survive in the new energy market you need £100's of millions - so the big 6 and the Oil majors (Shell & BP) will dominate for sometime to come, they are the only ones making a profit.

Harwood & Turner bought in after not being able to take this private. I would now think that the price is right for another take-over approach. Would think that this is worth now worth a punt.

Perhaps it needs to fall for a takeover price target?

Got to be a take over planned. Bayford have a significant share and now a large associated contract.

OVO now worth over £3bn with Goldman Sachs investment of £250m. OVO still not profitable. Think YU need to grow faster and not worry so much about the profit levels - it's clear the value is all about how may customers you have!

Hopefully it's not one of their board pumping the stock. Until they make a profit and it's audited then I remain cautious, remember in the past they had claimed profits only to discover a £10m black hole.

The numbers they produced were not good. Gross margins are always higher in the winter months so not sure about the 9.2% being an annual number? The GP last year was around 6%, if you then take off operational cost at 6% and bad debt at 3% then this is still loss making and will be for a long while. I have always said the board costs are too expensive - probably around £1m. Don't see why BK pays himself over £200k when he has lots of shares and took £2.5m out of the business when it floated. They only now have some cash in the business due to Smartest providing a credit facility to them, so they get customers money before they have to pay for energy. With the PAYE / VAT deferrals and smartest credit they would have no cash. I was expecting better, when companies like BES Utilities are achieving GP's of 20% and are profitable.

The board costs are already excessive for the size of the business. But as long as they show a profit when they report, then my fears will be reduced!

Based on the progress and the numbers of customers and more importantly the opportunity to be a leader in the business energy market, this is still way undervalued. Should be closer to the revenue at £100m with the growth prospects. My sell target is set at £6, which will be a very decent gain since last year.

https://www.euronews.com/living/2021/02/12/stop-burning-trees-for-energy-hundreds-of-scientists-tell-eu-leaders

A group of more than 500 scientists have signed a letter calling on the EU to stop treating the burning of biomass as carbon neutral.

YU are one of the best funded suppliers out there and with no debt has massive opportunities to grow. There will be more failures with poorly funded suppliers . YU can become the leader in the business space. The current market value is a bargain for buyers of the stock.

Green Network Energy was a customer of Smartest too, so they must have had a look at the business book and would be a great addition for them. This share has a long way to go, I expect £4-5 soon.