Member Info for Moleinahole

What makes you think I have a lack of confidence in the gas? Quite the opposite I believe the gas is very likely to be commercial in good volumes. What I'm equally confident on is that we don't have the capital to exploit it in a timely manner. Hence once it's proved I fully expect on the balance of probability for it to be developed alongside someone with deep pockets.

Indeed we have. I think Zaza made a comment that I have heard before from him at the meeting around the lack of focus in block 12 over the years due to the number and variety of prospects. I was reading some 2005 RNS last weekend with a wry smile when they were detailing working same wells we are in now with horizontals! Since then we have re-drilled in taribani but not solved the sediment, tried Mirzani - but had some issues with water, got very unlucky with Basin Edge and couldn't get down into the reservoir (whatever happened to the Canargo Manavi wells in similar formation I wonder!), developed a small scale shallow gas field before finally coming back to where we started at taribani with vertical wells and prospecting for Deep gas. The result has been as we all know a large cost recovery pool has been created with limited production. What we hope is different with this campaign is that it is focused very much on production. It has to be if we are to retain the license The discussion with SAOG will be harder if the current campaign does not result in a significant acceleration in the program of work in H2 2018 into 2019. There can be no guarantee of success here but I do believe by finally focussing capital on the taribani play they should get some decent results.UD2 is a totally different beast. Given what is known about similar deposits around the world I would be surprised if in the end it does not turn out to be a substantial commercial prospect. But its exploitation does appear for the moment at least to require some pretty significant stimulation to get it going and in future significant capital to scale out.

Dirk you are posing a hypothetical question which may never occur! The short answer is yes if sufficient information is provided to understand why. But I don't think we will be in that situation. I can't see any reason why the results when issued end of June would not have seen results from 3 oil wells and an update at the very minimum on UD2. If they are planning on doing any work in H2 they have to advance funding over the next 6 weeks. Everything is converging on this period in the middle of June which the original restructure envisaged as a pivotal date from whence the YA preference shares limit and board lockin changes. I think the company will enter a different phase of the commercialisation in H2.

For �300 you can fly there in 5 hours, get a bus to Gareji monastery and watch and pray for gas from the monastery!

Lubumbashi can you post where you reported them and I will join you in requesting that they are looked at. Its actually quite an interesting diversion while we wait.... To be able to cancel an executed trade in the same day is bad enough to be doing it a day later is creating a false market in the instrument and hence should be looked at.

A day later is not immediately cancelled! Does not explain it to me. Sounds more just like a trading strategy these trades are being executed and cancelled not just camcelled.

Pyro agree that is possible outcome - but can't see shares changing hands just yet. Shares will be drawn down from the headroom to handle them unless they are replaced with bonds or bank finance. The recent puzzle is why the YA monthly conversion have been showing up as an institutional holding in full. Now its not impossible that YA have been doing a conjuring job with shares via our broker as they have an investment side that is separate from the money lending operation. In the past the board have bought shares from that part of the business I'm sure. Equally the house broker could be facilitating something here. So your idea that some shares could be coming back onto the market is not as far fetched if either they or someone they know have a pot on the side to control the share price direction but stay below the 5%. Either way I think we are fast approaching the business end of things where the operations take a back seat to corporate events again. Actually going to be quite interesting to see how it unfolds.

Thombola - YA are done with their initial conversion to a fixed number of shares. They however have preference shares left over for which the mechanism to discharge them has not been published. We are led to believe the conversion can restart post June 16th (a month away) but that the company intention is to pay them off with cash rather than equity to redeem the preference shares. Should they restart sales on similar terms as before they would need about 6 months to be done. However, we are also led to believe they could be paid off each month in cash or have the whole lot settled in full in June rather than issue shares. Either way they don't want YA getting hold of shares to sell and pressure the share price. I'm with TSBs too early for YA there are other candidates I'd look at first amongst vendors or PI's. June isn't that far away!

Correct Pyro. While YA may not get shares Frontera would need the cash equivalent. This could come from proceeds of a bond raise, cash in bank from operations (not June but could be over 6 months) or equity placed outside the YA conversion via primary bid or friendly institution or board again who want more shares. We still have the unexplained close on 5% holding showing on Reuters which still makes no sense to me. Its also possible that some of the small vendor balances were left when they went under 3% and off the radar. They would be in profit at this level. Either way I would not be too concerned - the key here is the larger funding package and how the current operations dove tails into those discussions.

Could be something around the $2.9m residue preference shares. Just a little too early being a month out rather than 10 days normal pre-sells. Do YA have the most to gain from a low share price at the moment they would get lower of 10% off the current price or the higher year end price so would have thought the preference shares worth more in a higher share price? If it is them seems a dangerous strategy at whilst they know more than us they would not know the very fine details of the operations. Look for simple answers.

Could be a few candidates from YA keeping a few back or primary bid but less likely at this level. Institution bought with a lack in so not them. There are some large PI holders so would not assume it's an institution. If I had to guess there could be something going on with the remaining vendor debt which was due to convert with it being sold and transferring hence the odd pattern. That was priced to convert at 0.46p interestingly. Hard to be sure.

Zib you don't go and visit the internet chatteraty if you are looking for bond or institutional finance. I'm not saying they would not go back to primary bid but at the moment we are funded with contingency for the current campaign. The next round of work like the 3d sesimic or 3 well oil campaign would need $12m+. That is unlikely to be from an equity raise with punters as we don't have headroom. The remaining headroom is supposed in part to be used to settle the remaining vendor creditors. That final part of the 2017 restructure is outstanding and unless it is no longer planned to pay them from equity makes sense to do so post current round of results. It's interesting again we find ourselves at the .46p level around which the whole restructure was planned. Coincidence or does it perhaps explain some of the cancelled trade/transfers? Per my post to Puddy last night all the signs to me point to a bigger funding deal being worked on for June/July that involves different elements that is conditional on success in current ooerations.

Hi Puddy missed you last week for a proper chat. YA it seems from several conversations and listening to presentations can be handled in a few ways. We seem to be able to buy them out in June or let it run and pay them off in cash rather than kind as each tranche falls due. Zaza was most emphatic this time that he does not intend them to get equity if at all possible and do what they have done over the past year. The precise mechanism is to be decided. Assuming it's a cap of $400k a month again then it would be possible to pay from good revenue results over 7months but not ideal. That leaves the possibility of a one off raise either through primary or direct from institutions and maybe board participate. Must admit one possibility I would not discount is someone like Outrider and Mr Hope or our mystery institution who is locked in offering for a slice of equity. I've long had the impression that they have a plan. Can't see locked in institutions happy to see YA selling down. The June date was chosen for a reason. There appears to me to be a potentially much bigger funding going on most likely involving convertible bonds which listening carefully to Zaza when talking about the full field development plans. Maybe EBRD or banks or private equity. That will make the YA amount look small. Our best protection at the moment against irresponsible dillution is the boards large holdings converted at 1p which I think they don't want to squander. There remains the possibility of farm in or a bigger JV arrangement but that could be a little further out as the best value for that would be after we have done a little more proving up.

Zeps read what I said. Of course the share price matters - its just not that easy. dirk Things of value have already occurred and will continue. As we have seen there are plenty of people who have and continue to sell - so in the short term news in itself is no guarantee of a rising share price. The current work program will complete drilling this month leaving a final stimulation at T39 and then its testing into June. Assuming the company is planning on doing something in H2 2018 then one would assume there is a reasonable chance of news before then is there not? We have 2017 results coming end June. If Dino follows T45 then the stable flow will be in 2 weeks. Ud2 was in clean up before test so depending on the outcome of the work program we could get an interim update at any time. Anyone investing hoping to stag a Jv or farm does so with no guidance from the company in terms of time frames. the guidance you have is that they will look at offers for any of the assets and are looking for a better price from a position of relative strength.

End of July? Where has that date been plucked from! Dirk nearly everyone would prefer a higher share price. Zaza would, YA would, traders would, long term holders would..... But the reality is you can only announce what can be announced. What exactly do you think they should announce or can announce today? The flow on T45 has been reported about as soon as it was stable. Dino is in early test and T39 is drilling. Ud2 has only just been put under test. Last week they announced better well economics, better zones, they are fracking with full power on the wells. Oil price is rising and we have had director buys. I have heard the current weakness being attributed to Niko and funding uncertainty and disappointment at flow rates. I would put it down to combination of traders, shorters and unrealistic rainbow chasing expectations personally. Between the two data points implied in Flakey original comment we have raised a large amount of capital and paid off a substantial amount of preference share debt. Having malevolent interest from prophets of doom and a bit of uncertainty from the SAOG does not help. There is frustration clearly with the share price - but oil and gas exploration and heavy engineering takes time and costs money anywhere let alone in Georgia. That is the game you are invested in. That does not mean that progress is not being made. That will in the end translate into the share price on a fundamental valuation basis if the flows are sustained but that is not something that can always happen quickly. For all the noise and bluster being impatient won't bring results any quicker I would suggest but may make you feel better in your speedo's. For the record I added 3.5m real shares today having read and reviewed the data in the presentation and becoming frustrated at the negativity.

The more I think about it something has changed between Jan and the fracking in April. I can understand why ud2 might have changed technique. But it's interesting that the same change has been applied in a different formation at taribani (gareji at UD2 and eldari at T45). It's certainly after the materials were ordered.They had 2years to plan taribani and did dry run in zone 9 so it's a late change for sure. I had a look at the weekend to try and find some Permian basin vertical well information but didn't finish reading to find out the amount of proppant they use. Area for a bit more research. Busy day today so I'll leave it to MAPP for some philosophical posts.

If you choose to follow the parter in the wings line then more likely would be Frontera shared the results and perhaps they have had some technical assistance to peer review which suggest a change of fracking strategy. That would make more sense to me after the first track only got 15% contact to get a second opinion. I'm still interested in whether this is a fresh attempt on a new stage higher up.

Dubz if you planned 3 zones and ended up using more proppant in 2 zones people should not be surprised you would need to order more proppant to do the 3 zone or indeed zone 13. As I've posted a few times they have changed strategy using more power into a smaller number of perforation to go deeper into the surrounding formation. I don't think anyone would have asked them to do that they have made that decision themselves based on the logging results and models. They are getting the results they are looking for from this smaller high powered high proppant frack. That may incidently help a third party but it will not be the reason for it.

Toatie (your moniker gets auto corrected to toastie!). The tales of woe from GKP are an interesting case in point. Consolidation in itself is meaningless. There is some thinking the higher looking share price will persuade people it's a more successful company and that it might reduce volatility. The concern is always when it is done as part of a wider restructure where additional equity or headroom is created. The dangerous time here would have been 2016. We could easily have been wiped out in a combined consolidation and recapitalisation before Steve and Zaza converted debt to equity. Now the board have best part 20% equity and institution with lock in for6 months and YA who were a problem in previous looking at consolidation I think the risks have decreased. My own view is that consolidation is more likely in 2019 once YA out of the way and share price and company on a sounder footing. The actual conversion would just alter the number of shares in issue and increase share price in theory leaving a neutral effect. What is more important is to do it while the share price is strong and not as part of financing. If they do that it is nothing to be concerned about. There is not really any need to do it though so I'd prefer they concentrate on other matters.

As you know they don't publish the bopd so you have to try and work one out and with the oil price moving around that is going to be difficult this year. We know they have carried on working over the wells and replacing pumps. I don't know whether they have sorted out the water issues that have reduced mtsare shallow gas but one RNS indicated the maintenance work had been done at the processing facility. Even if you assume it's back down at 150 bopd as to work out the cumulative change here we will have to net back the down time at Dino, T45 and T39 which were all producing wells and take that off the new production from the same wells. I wasn't trying to break the production down to that level simply illustrate that 270 bopd from one well is a significant change in the revenue profile. The important part is not current production those wells will just trickle on. The future is in new wells. The bigger change the year is of course the price of oil. Zaza asked where you were by the way and asked if you were ok!