Member Info for Moleinahole

TSBs I would agree except for the cancellation element that is what we have seen before and usually when YA are up to something. I have posted before that vendors are the other possible source with an interest around current share price level. if they are being handled in volume via a broker to handle the transaction. The Uniserve shares disappeared in a series of large lumps when they finally cleared in 2017.

Dave what goes on here would indeed make a great film/book. If we get Prod and Coggy in the woollies window at the end not sure if it would count as a horror or a comedy. Either way its not funny the current drop has cost me a significant paper 6 figure change in my net worth. The share price has become totally disconnected from actual news. We have been here before but it will be a shock for any recent holders I'm sure.

Dave they went under 3% so we have never known whether they held some or not. The volumes of these trades are actually still small compared to Mcap. The damage to sentiment they do in a febrile atmosphere and thin volume is the problem as the MM are using them to march the price down (possibly they are actually accumulating as the price is squeezed). We are also inside a T20 range for a mid June conversion if someone wanted to sell now and settle later. Institutions are well capable of hedging transactions with derivatives in any event. There are no reported open shorts on FRR on the short tracker. I have never understood these trades but we have seen them before many times and in the past it has always been when YA have been up to something around the SEDA.

A low share price - if YA still get the lower of current price less 10% or 2017 year end share price (or a new baseline) that means they use up more preference shares should they get bought out in june at this level. Its a tough one to take at the moment but if they were able to be bought out on current terms after the share price took off they would get truly excess profits here if they started to get the 2017 year end price as the conversion price rose. Equally YA may be happy to get their $2.8m at around current price less 10% and not have longer term ambitions having already got their money back. I have said before I think it is something to do with YA but may or may not be YA doing this. At this level they are pretty well hedged either way.

Pyro agree. The gas processing facility could be a short term limiting factor. It has a capacity that could be exceeded by what we have found already. So more wells would need bigger pipes and bigger facilities. Why would you deploy your own capital on that when you have oil wells with quick payback? Ud2 has proved problematic due to soviet drills and V18 may be equally tricky. A new gas well is $5m minimum and it needs the seismic. One thing I did notice yesterday back reading the 2016 operations RNS is that I think the 35 well gas campaign area already had 3D seismic. So I'm slightly intrigued where the extra seismic is for or whether modern seismic is required to reprocess over same area. All options are in play here and time will tell which direction we have and are travelling.

Coggy - just picking up post from last night. Yes absolutely agree. The point I was making is that we know these zones do alot higher initial flows and fall back hence it takes time to establish the longer term flow and yes they may well have stabilised it at this level for a variety of reasons using the choke. I've invested in enough of these companies over the years to observe results coming to market. Most recent was HNR where they issued results in stages as the flow stabilised - US companies in Denver have the advantage of publicly available flow data independent of the company each month. The answer is the final stabilised result is moot but we do know the economic models are based on 400 bopd so the result so far is in line with the economic models the profiles have fed into. You can always look at the result with a glass half full or a glass empty pair of goggles. Jakknife and the rest of the prophets of gloom are glass empty kind of people and unable to even consider the possibility the glass is half full or could even be full and overflowing. JS - read your posts from last night as well. I suspect there are a few things going on. Take HNR as an example again. They are main market and also early in their journey. First being main market for a small company makes no difference to volatility trust me. It also does not make you immune from the prophets of gloom either. Secondly, the cost and time of raising capital and regulatory red tape increases substantially compared to AIM where you can do sharp raises as required. They have recently tried the type of publicity as well going on a round of visits to institutions. They have had more luck from US based oil specialists - my observation is the general institutional approach is less effective. Frontera used to be on Us exchange but moved. At the moment adding an additional listing particularly this side of a consolidation would make no sense. On the publicity side they have tried - but I think we need to prove the residual political and geological risks have been removed and then the fundamentals will sell the company. Having gone for many years supporting the company personally if the company can begin leverage growth using non dilutive finance or a jv then there may be less need to self puplicise and instead reap the rewards going forwards. Its a difficult one as if you want to attract institutions onto the register then they tend to want to buy in at a low price. We do of course have at least 1 modest institution (unnamed) whose entrance at discount was combined with the primary bid enabling existing holders to add at the same level. That contrasts with past placements where institutions got a straight 20% discount. So it could just be that if they have some non dillutive finance lined up and hence focus is different.

Bedex that is not their normal pattern. They are a specialist in distressed debt buying it at discount and asset stripping the target asset to profit from turning fund or breaking up the assets.

As Hope is a director he would have to declare so I would say no. A specific of the deal was they got their debt secured but list the right to convert to equity. Given their proclivity to taking out target companies and their shareholders that was a good result. I would not rule them out fully as a future bond holder with convertible debt however. They are definitely a potential source of funds but have shown no interest so far and the impression I have got is that Hope is there to protect his company investment for 2020. There original plan seemed to be to leverage a taieover.

Well if they do delay anything they will add to a counter case in arbitration as that is one of their specific responsibilities where as Frontera must raise the finance and progress the field operations.

Again I think you misread what I posted. I'm not getting at you the fear I'm referring too is not so much what you have posted but the other stuff in particular propagated from the prophets of gloom. Unfortunately this unusual trading pattern is playing into narrative at an important time in the company lifecycle.

Not getting at you Puddy! Generally would agree to a point the direction of travel is usually influenced by bigger players but in a thin market I would also never underestimate the short term impact a bit of fear can do. Conversely, prices move quick when the herd arrive on greed. Either way at the moment the share is under downward pressure for an undetermined reason.

Where ahs 90 days come from? Its 45 days from load to tanker at Batumi. Frontera park up rail wagons at the rail head and ship when the load is full big enough 5,000 to 10,000 barrels to 20,000 barrels. So its as long as it takes to fill the rail then a day to the terminal. Then paid in 45 days. Either way a fundraise now you would have to ask what is it for? The next campaign will be later in the year. If its just YA using primary bid then seems odd if its to retain the frack fleet that does not tie in with the assurance that the 3 well campaign was funded. I'm not so sure. But either way it is creating uncertainty to support trading and shorting.

Guys - someone is deliberately executing a trading pattern either to clear or accumulate a reasonable number of shares and they seem to have a target around this level. I would never rule a placement out. But the last few have been launched with a tight ship maintained and no pre-selling but with effectively a 20% discount. So we are in that territory if one is in progress with institutions but it would be a deviation from previous pattern. To discount 20% from here even to get rid of YA would I suspect not be a popular move having done that in Feb and to do so again at a lower share price would hurt. In the past these trades have been associated with an institution working a large sell. Normally in FRR case that is YA but not always the vendors (mainly Uniserve) from 2016 disposed of a large holding in much the same way. As I see it the two other most likely sources of such trades are: 1. YA it is in their interest to keep the share price low. In the old arrangement they get lower of either a 10% discount to current price based on the 5 day VWAP or @0.0049p per share. Perhaps the price is re-baselined from June if their sales resume so they want a low baseline or just a low buyout price if they got say 10% off the lot under 0.0049p. 2. There is the possibility of some vendor debt as yet unconverted. That was planned around the current price. We only converted a portion of the vendor debt and are carrying $5 to $6m at the moment. That seems too large to explain this but maybe the vendors would like equity before results. If you raised at too low a level for YA then the vendor debt could not clear using current headroom. The number and execution does not look like a PI holder and too big for our departing non-exec director holding being sold. It will not be the board as they would need to notify. Its too low a price for any rump from the primary bid. It is very frustrating for sure. At the start of this restructure some low ball placements helped YA and the placees in the August raise get bargain basement prices before the larger rise. It could be that shorters took advantage of the leak of the arbitration and are closing out at this level having taken advantage of the drop both before and after. That I would also not rule out but fits less well with the pattern. If I was pushed I would say this has all the signs of YA up to something to get a keen conversion price. The transactions look at least in part aimed at getting a days low at close for a VWAP price. That would fit YA for me.

Free on the 18th may the fleet was fracking stage 2 in Dino in zone 14. Zone 15 was done on 7th May. Dino (and the other wells) are being done in three stages most likely to measure flow by zone. Next it will be used at T39 which must be getting close to TD now. I'm not sure what flow rate people expect them to announce other than the one that has been announced - they left it 4 days to stabilise in zone 14! I'm not sure just issuing news will make a lot of difference at the moment - it needs to be a bit more targeted to address what appear to be the 3 "concerns". 1. The medium to longer term sustainability of the oil flow rates - not possible to report now. 2. Short term funding (including how to deal with YA) - not likely before current campaign complete to get best deal. 3. Arbitration/Political Risks - not possible. In the absence of these we have had director buys just before the closed period for results. If it was me good UD2 results are more likely to have a high impact hence will be watched more closely and hence need to be properly tested for political as well as corporate reasons. If in any doubt of politics read Ivy post from last night its a good read. YA or a background accumulation are the obvious beneficiary of a suppressed share price. They would not need to be trading many shares to create the kind of pressure we have seen in low volume. Right back into some meetings post again tonight.

Someone is determined to keep the share under pressure with the late 4 m sell seemingly designed to pressure the opening the next day. Let's see how the day unfolds get some work done now.

Bibzy its a difficult little period at the moment. The company have done nothing wrong but the share price has had its momentum taken out of it just before the newsflow started to be delivered. Very frustrating but these days not uncommon on AIM. But FRR is a good share to learn alot about marked, life, politics, oil and gas and Coggys lessons on investing. If the flows continue at around the unpumped naturally flowing volume (note the other prophets of gloom misinformation the wells have been mechanically stimulated but are naturally flowing as do every other well you stimulate) then the models from NSA and WHI can be used to monitor decline curves we have a 9 year model on Dino from zone 9 so it is well understood but the effect of the large stimulation and high amount of proppant used is a new factor. This should be the stable flow after 2 weeks and not the initial burst which we know from previous drills at Niko and Dino can be up to1000bopd. The wells are now under production test. Longer term pumped models on the wells have a 50% higher recovery. Only time will tell where we stand at the end of the production test. Maybe that why they have kept some of the payload back if they need to go back and apply some adjustments to the next stage.

Yep they have shot an own goal I think. I did the same maths last night and had to laugh about the old saying on statistics and lies. Plug in 750 and then 1000bopd and see if it gets close to the WHI valuation.

Bibzy bit premature but if you were to get an offer on any share you hold they will buy your shares at an agreed price in either a cash or cash and shares offer. They may offer you paper in their own company to conserve cash. Such an offer would usually go to a vote and require the requisite najority to pass. Whilst I would not rule it out I would say a farmin was a more likely scenario but as I say would never rule an offer out at FRR particularly for the gas assets once proven. I notice the prophets of gloom have created a new metric to measure explorers of barrels of oil per day per well per share. We can have some fun later applying the same metric to other explorers and see how we rank.

Thanks ivy for posting that excellent piece of context. You read that and then someone posts the prophets of doom latest missive in their long running campaign against the company. Ed Chow was on an Atlantic council panel wth Steve couple of years ago I believe and had some harsh words on Ukraine even then when Steve was trying to be positive. It's notable and I think no accident that Frontera are involved in all three countries subject to the discussion.

Mike - it will suddenly go up for the same reason its suddenly gone down.