Member Info for Moleinahole

Prod you won't see true value until the work is done - but a lot of the work has indeed been done but in a way that can't be quickly used to leverage funds (e.g. a full CPR to bank) on a go it alone basis for the gas. There may well already be enough information for a jv but maybe not at best price. I think the oil is a totally different prospect. The current campaign should provide certainty that the CPR can be revisited to finally book reserves. I think that is a real possibility in 2018 post the current campaign. Now to turning to Block. I notice on their website they have borrowed some of FRR own graphics. So obviously the two companies have shared some information. Looking at them they have a slight advantage on their own proximity to the export pipelines. But we have better resources. Their fields are some of the ones that have been worked hard in the past so it will be interesting to see how they get on and watch their program and who they use. What caught my eye was the following from their spin: •Immediate neighbour (Norio and Satskhenisi fields) to major service company and asset owner Schlumberger •High potential of Block establishing joint venture with strategic partner •Block is partnered with Georgian Oil and Gas, one of Georgia’s most respected oil companies and biggest licence owners. Our old friends GOGC (the PSA will be interesting to see) - note on site says "New production service contract, valid until 2042 with optional five year renewal"! That sounds very like what Zaza says about our PSA a 25 year license and 5 year renewals. Bit of an indication of GOGC approach on the licenses. Also interesting looking at the slides was the Shlumberger block next door and MND active popped up again (Were they not the company who Outrider were trying to sell us out too?). Norio Is interesting on their PSA Sweet crude oil sold and collected at the wellhead at a price of Brent (minus transportation costs) ~USD 10 Norio Production Service Agreement until 2026 with optional 5 year renewal 100% recovery of operating cost before any sharing with government 100% cost recovery allowance from 50% of oil 50% of profit oil until costs recovered, 40% thereafter No taxes or discovery bonus applicable No minimum work programme to fulfil Finally, looking at their Satskhenisi prospect. Bit like FRR is doing 6 bopd from shallow like Mtsare in old soviet era verticle wells! But they are looking at the Maikop unconventional layers there. Maikop is believed to have considerable unconventional potential Similar geological setting and formations to Norio Learnings from one permit apply to the other. As I say well worth a closer look.

Av8 - I have discussed this before here.The problem with the 202tcf is that it is so big that no one believes it. Steve was treated very much like Baron Munchausen on that and the oil! What I've always found interesting is why NSA attributed such high recovery factors on even the smaller CPR numbers and no one believed them either in the state agency! If there was something fundamentally not right or risky they would have put a much lower recovery factor. They did not. So the company stand by the 202tcf figure but it is across a vast area so how economic parts of that are to extract is moot. What is more certain is that in the explored pockets within the block they know there is 2000 to 3000m of gas bearing conventional and unconventional gas. We are exploring in a 100m section and perforation around 10m! So until you get the results from UD2 and the enhanced 3d seismic of prospective area its going to get very little value attributed. But once its proven then the seismic will come into its own in working out how much of the 202tcf is really exploitable. At the moment we don't know - but I would be happy with the 1.5 tcf proven at Udabno as a starter then the rest of the Mtsare deeper gas and taribani before the silly numbers are contemplated!

Offtheball - very well put its an interesting diversion but as we saw yesterday with the Service company doing consultancy on the directional drilling (and that was a very interesting snippet of information) there are numerous service companies involved at different times for many different reasons with many different specialisms. We have had it in the past with speculation about BP. We sell our oil to them so there are good reasons the company have contacts with BP and they are nothing to do with JV or takeover! The company have been as clear as they can be I suspect at the moment around anything JV related. As recent May Zaza was clear that deals have different values depending on how mature the proposition is and how strong financially Frontera are. Hence, the results of the current campaign feed into the calculus of any potential partner but if it is a jv rather than an offer of some sort then timing is dictated by the speed both parties want to move. But while that potential process works through the company have carried on with own work program and handling the debt to strengthen the balance sheet. We are now half way through the month - we will get some commentary with the results due in 2 weeks. before then there is opportunity to do some further interim updates particularly on T39. What I do think is needed (notwithstanding the results of T45, Dino and UD2) is a little bit of clarity on the operational plan between now and November NIKO commencement in the gap period and a bit of news on how the first month of the YA deal is being handled will be interesting. And all of that will depend on the flow rates from the H1 program which we will keep coming back too until they are released. They will be released when the company are ready to release them and the same is true of any sort of other corporate event - but no man knows the time or day for any such event but its a day closer than it was yesterday.

Sycric I think the Baker Hughes and Weatherford connection is the key bit as we have worked with them for years so maybe Georgia is a good proving ground for a new company as probably keeps cost down as a first time as well. Certainly seems to tie in with Dustin arriving as well when we got the campaigns funded and underway again - so probably a good bit of business using good but not the big named service companies.

I think its the flow of drilling fluids rather than oil - its 159 litres in a barrel! What's more interesting is how quick they drilled. Looks like they did it in 10 days with 2 drill runs on T39. That is exactly what Zaza was talking about in May presentation with the lowering of drill costs in the economic models combined with then increased pay zones.

Well you have found another of the service providers we have brought in - must admit don't remember their website before but for the drilling enthusiasts it has extra info on the actual drilling operations. http://ediholding.com/newsletter.html They are clearly close mates of Baker Hughes and Weatherford and as they didn't do T45 the straight deepening were brought in for the more complex Side tracks at Dino and T39 so seem to be technical specialists for the side tracks. As the company was only set-up in 2017 they are part of team Taribani: Baker Hughes, Weatherford, EDI, Gulf drilling and our Romania frackers.

Gary good sign if CFEP are starting to change their posture that things are coming to a head. Maybe they just felt sorry for the hard pressed holders and are giving it a chance to rise a bit before coming back for another go! Good day - I'll work away more often! RB40 - III site what a disaster. They will have to come over here or go to ADVFN as its pretty much unusable.

Duster - you are possibly not far off the truth. One of the bits in the 2017 restructure if you read carefully is that the preference shares have precedence over the equity in a insolvency (unlikely that anyone would get anything if that happened!) but more importantly has rights in the event of the a j/v or takeover including participating in a distribution. So if you wanted them out of the way then the new deal with the preference shares fits the bill nicely!

Jabond what you can see in the charts is that FRR moves up very quickly. After the event you would see a rise like September 2018 but probably going on a bit longer with a gap up.

Puddy - I don't trade but do observe charts as you can easily explain the movements when you correlate to the news flow. .If you look at FRR on a few time horizons you can see why people do trade this share on technicals. Yearly you can see the drop from the restructure in May to August - from .45p to .10p. the obvious cause of that steady drop was the YA monthly sells. September then saw the rapid rerate as the operations were funded and underway. .10p to .80p straight up. The higher share price blunted the monthly YA sells. It then traded on a gradual downward trend Oct, Nov, Dec in the .50 to .65 range but perked up with anticipation of the drills particularly UD2. You can clearly see the end of jan RNs and the Primary bid in Feb in the charts as down ward spikes. March to May 9th you can see recovering sentiment and a rise into the drill results. This included the spike down caused by the prophets of gloom leak of the on arbitration which interestingly also caused the share to retreat to this support level. Since May 9th after a large initial drop post drill news the share has gravitated to this support level and it is trading in a range of .38 to .44p. I don't think that drop around 9th may was the cancelled trades. It was shareholders trading and selling. Since then volume is relatively low and when I put the chart onto a monthly you can see that after the initial drop post 9th may when the volume was highest the curve is flattening out in lower volume - still dropping but shows signs of turning. If you look at a 3 month chart with the 200 move average and 20 day average you can see the 9th may drop took the share through the rising 200 day average and the 20 day average crossed around 1st june. I'm not trading but I do know a lot of technical traders follow this share and at the moment the current price is still below the 200 day and 20 day average. The big question I suppose then is what would repeat the rises seen in sept and post Feb? If one assumes the gas progress was behind the large jump in Sept then I would say people are waiting for the gas as the oil news though good has not caused the share to move so quickly. Having complained about YA for years I'm a little surprised the YA news has not yet has a better impact - but its importance will unfold over the next year in terms of easing the pressure on the share price into a future rise.

Ah....even if that was true that could just be the MM taking advantage of a bit of weakness and greasing the decline. You are making that link but it may or may not have been the case. Did the unusual trades spook people into selling and trading or was it expectations and short term horizon of some holders? Its not unusual for MM to drop the price to accumulate and generate trades. That is exactly why I would not expect the company to be able to comment. The stock is traded independently of the company and selling is not always a reflection of the company - even larger holders some tines rebalance portfolios, seek better opportunities or execute tax planning transactions. If the volume was higher it would be interesting to see what that did to these transactions and how the MM would respond. Broadly I would say we are in a period of sideways movement as those who wanted to sell have sold, those who want to hold (either willingly or because they are locked in) are holding.

Way too simple. As I've said before while the company might have an idea what is going on at the end of the day the shares are owned by whoever is trading/transferring them so its not for the company to comment on the trading activity of joint stock shareholders in the same way its not the company responsibility to make a TR1 declaration. If it was part of a wider corporate activity or funding then that would get announced when its done but as we have seen in the past with YA often participants can presell or use hedging transactions as part of a larger transaction. The company obviously can't comment. It is frustrating - but for those new to the share we had this go on for long periods in the past and they suddenly stop when the underlying cause (be it YA or vendors or Outrider or DDj capital) stopped what they were doing. They are not really taking the price down - they seem to be priced in the .40 to .42p area. The volume is actually not large either - too big for YA, too small for all the vendor shares, so could just be a larger holder who bought in in primary bid or more likely one of the raises in 2017 at a lower price - e.g. part of the small vendors lot or the August placing both done at lower levels. The transactions do not seem linked to the underlying operational progress which is what makes them so frustrating I suppose.

Gary did she see 0.06p in the charts? And are England going to win a game in the group stages?

Timster this will move suddenly when you least expect it. It has done in the past. Once whatever is causing the share price to gravitate to this level is released it will move very quickly. We have seen it before but this time the launch up will be from this level. YA seem really concerned about the SAOG taking our block away as well don't they tying in for another year! Once all the negatives are worked through and resolved sentiment will return. By then however some bigger fish might have been busy with the hoover.

YA would only be a few million if its first month 10m plus maybe 50m. Remember however the deal enables over payment and a arranged placement of an equivalent amount to pay in equity not cash in early months either to YA or an Institution makes perfect sense to me. This balance could go quickly - equally the final part of the vendor balances might have been waiting for this to be resolved before being executed. Everything going on at the moment will be to do with unwinding the final parts of the 2017 restructure and YA are intimately linked in with that and the transition to a new funding model.

Prod just for you based on 2017 half year accounts. Looking at the P & L and making some assumptions of average price etc We did 180 bopde - probably made up of 130 to 150 bopd oil and the rest gas calc by annualising the revenue in 2017 and assuming oil at $45 and keeping the gen expenses constant and the field expense constant - remember they have cut some costs but added others. For 2018 on a full year basis I have to plug in $70 a barrel oil and 685 bopd to break even - so increase from current production of net +505 from any of T39, T45 and Dino and in due course UD2. 2017 2018 Revenue $ 3.0 m $ 17.5 Expenses $ (14.3) m $ (14.3)m Deficit/surplus $ ( 11.7) m $ 3.2 m YA monthly cost $265 annualised would be something around $3.1m Beyond this you need to be slightly careful as you really need to look at the balance sheet and the interest expenses we are running up in kind for the 2020 notes. To deal with those we would need $4m to pay in cash rather than kind. The balance sheet is always interesting on FRR. The main issue is that the large long term debt item of $33.5m is only offset by the oil and gas assets being valued at $1.2m. Cash is always low other than that the other items tend to balance out. The company need to get some value for the oil and gas assets and the cost recovery pool back on the balance sheet and then at 700 bopd the business will look a lot better but they need to carry on and start to address the annual debt interest in kind and replace or settle the long term debt by 2020. that is achievable only if in 2019 the revenue is significantly grown.

The purpose of the lock in was to reassure the vendors and YA that the restructure which relied on equity to clear the debt could be executed without the Board selling. The board went unsecured by converting to equity had they not converted they would have probably ranked higher in debt precedence. Given the shenanigans around the loan notes in 2016 there has been a delicate balancing act here to accommodate all stakeholders (bondholders - Board and Outrider, loans - YA, debt - vendors, equity - shareholders). I personally remain thankful that the board as both bondholders and equity holders were aligned to other equity holders because had we not been we would have been taken out. Each time over the last year the board have entered into equity transactions the purpose is twofold (IMO) first because they believe in what they are doing and secondly to stand beside and reassure other parties to invest or stay invested.

Free the other aspects of the deal I like is the ability to switch between cash and equity enables any future operational requirements to be absorbed. For instance there will be months in mid 2018 when we revisit the wells where production halts to do the extra zones. equally it allows for flexibility in the event of some issues. So it is prudent at managing risk by baking in some financial flex. Notice also whereas the first year of the deal limited them in equity but fixed the monthly amount to $400k - the next year is theoretically has no limit in terms of shares but the value is fixed and the monthly amount fixed at $265k! In practise we might not issue any shares. So even if they did issue $265k a month that would bit over half the 70m shares a month they were issuing before so 30 to 40m only and at a higher share price even less! At 1p its a tiny amount. Had the old arrangement continued YA could have made substantial profits in a rising price. So I'm very happy with how its been dealt with. There is no indication of a volume weighted average price in the event the facility is used or a baseline price - so for me I believe it is reasonable to assume that there is not one. I think the WHI notes is spot on and articulated what I said earlier in better words - take note Cheesie!

I would hope it was pulled for several reasons. First, it has continued to publish malicious and personal likely falsehoods about malcy. Second, its intent is pretty clear to continue a vendetta the source of it has against the company. Third it published comments equally derogatory about someone who is not the nomad. Let alone the other inaccuracy and spin.

Lubumbashi there are several permutations here and I think we have only seen the first card played. One option is that the company have a willing buyer for ant shares converted and not given to YA. There is nothing to stop the whole lot of the monthly balance being scooped up at market rates by a buyer. We already had 2 investors put large amounts in to Niko and locked in shares. Good that they didn't wait to 16th to announce this! Good habit being on time with operations and early with news.