Member Info for Moleinahole

Flakey el presidente and the foreign minister are the two who Frontera have courted in the past on visits and dinners. They are both clearly in the western leaning camp. Ivanashvlli is more ambvalent and I've not been able to find a great deal on the new pm so I assume he is in the Ivanashvlli camp. The European resolution is very strong and when combined with the US resolutions in Congress which are actually less strident but do actually mention FRR.

2008 would be the invasion of Georgia by Russia. They also had to recapitalise around that time with the original loan notes. There has been so much change in the share holder register and dilutions since then I would not pay much attention to actual prices from 2008 as you are not comparing like for like. Concentrate on more recent history.

Coggy there is a number of sites dedicated to the importance of 42 with some suitably ridiculous examples. Very soon it will be RB40 new moniker here RB42!

I think you need to look at the agreement as preference shares - whether you like it or not they are part owners of the business. The old settlement agreement expired on 16th June. At that point we probably had the option to repay in full but they have opted to spread it out but with the option to pay either in cash or kind each month and settle in full at any point. We did not so that would indicate to me we did not have $3m available in June. The only reason you might want to settle in full would be because you want the preference shares back as they can participate in a distribution in the event of a takeover or a lender wants them out of the way. Otherwise from here on you would pay them off. However, the point I'm making is that you need to look beyond YA and how we intend to fund both the existing vendor debt that is due now and the program in H2. Seismic can't be funded by a profit share like Niko. So either they will have access to funds from a bank or EBRD type set-up or they won't be doing much work over the summer or they have something else in mind (e.g. a jv). Off to a meeting for next 3 hours - so see what others think.

Commy the monthly YA preference shares conversion is not the only cost in the business. How do you think the $5.5m vendor debt is going to be paid this year?

Commy the 10m is the admin loan arrangement fee. The 10% is the discount they got on the old arrangement effectively the interest. So I don't see it in quite the way you do. The fact they spread it out would indicate to me they intend to use a mix future revenue and some of the cash in hand to fund it. However, the company continue to run a monthly deficit and if they have had no further management loans since 2017 then the money from the court settlement and extra cash from the II could well have gone into funding the monthly deficit. Until we see the accounts for 2017 and more importantly H1 2018 in September it will be hard to assess how the P & L is performing. Remember we have also now got legal costs and Akin Gump lobby costs from the arbitration. I'm hopeful that we can fund from cash. But I'm mindful the current share price is here for a reason. I think it is either related to resolving this deal as part of something bigger or what I will keep coming back to the outstanding $5.5m short term large vendor debt of which we have heard nothing for a year. I also tend towards the view that the news flow on the operations will converge towards a critical event probably this month or at the latest July.

Commy as there are different permutations in the deal the short answer is that nobody knows. The first payment is the most challenging to settle with cash unless: 1. They have kept a bit back from the Court case settlements 2. Got some additional cash from T45 production or kept a bit back from the II. 3. Remember when the II pitched in after the primary bid I think that will have left a bit over $1m in the kitty as a contingency. If we have not used that for operations then it may well be available. However, if cash was tight pending first 2018 campaign oil revenue then the share option can't be discounted. Which is why it will be interesting to see which way it goes. The way the share price has gravitated to this .42p level suggests to me at least the possibility some sort of corporate transaction is priced around this level with an equity element especially given the recent trading pattern.

....and yes cash would be hugely positive....or a loan to replace the lot and fund some operations like pipeline or seismic.

TSBS the other part is whether the shares are issued at discount and who takes them. If they have someone like the II lined up to take them I would say that was a very positive sign.

TSBS they may not go to YA someone else might inject some cash and take them - possibly all of them in one go! That is why the first instalment will be so interesting. It will also give us a clue on the timing they can convert. Whilst the 16th is when it kicks in they may have all month to choose the timing or it may be in FRR hands. We shall see.

Rainbow I suggest you start reading some of the Georgian press. It may also have escaped your notice that we face the same dynamics in Moldova and Ukraine where we are at early days in our work. The Georgians are smart enough not to try and use force to regain the lost lands. So the chances of something like Ukraine at the moment is remote. However, the exertion of soft force and meddling in the domestic politics through proxies is what they actively do to destabilise countries. That is why the more enlightened elements of Georgian society seek greater integration and implantation of the rule of law and western/Atlantic values. The current power broker in Georgia Ivanshvilli is broadly sympathetic to Russia (he is an oligarch) it is the sentiments of the Georgian people that keep him in check as at the moment Georgia is a rare example in the region of a broadly functioning democracy. however, within the politics there are some nationalist elements who are more akin to the people running the breakaway parts of Ukraine. fortunately they are in a minority. Anyway we are yet another day closer. Either today or more likely Monday we should have the first of YA preference shares conversion executed. I think it will be a small share placement or 50m shares. Alongside that there is the chance of some additional operational news probably T39 to sweeten it a bit. I think Ud2 could get released with the results at end of the month as the results will be rubbish for 2017 - the commentary will be more important.

I saw that resolution yesterday and it is surprisingly strong when you read it. Everyone invested should read it if you want to keep up with the political context. Time will tell how the new PM performs but good start with the AMcham comments given Frontera are heavily involved in it. Best defence to Russian ambitions in the occupied regions would be an energy fuelled expansion in Georgia to create a differential between the two parts of the country. Hopefully Frontera can help a bit with that.

Dulwich I'm interested in both knowing your wisdom on such matters and being in London close to the levers of power! I think Georgia has entered a very interesting period in its history and at this time Frontera absolutely need to play a clever game and deliver solid progress. if they do that we will be alright I feel but its never a dull moment here even when we are waiting for news.

Dulwich presume you noticed Georgian PM has resigned already!

Dulwich - quick view on the PM situation (Georgia not UK!).

Prod the problem is that all the information is not in a CPR that could be used to take to the bank - so for a go it alone option it is problematic not having it if you need funding. Its possible a 3rd party might look at the information and it never go to NSA for another CPR produced by FRR and the facts on the ground of the flowing well would support that view. Having the document should have made attracting a partner easier. Bur we are where we are and from here I would support Zaza approach of getting facts on the ground with flowing wells not theoretical pieces of paper. If the pie is big enough on the Gas then it is probably somewhat academic anyway but having a viable standalone business has got to help when negotiating as you always have the option of walking away.

TSBs - no wonder its taking so long at UD2 when the flare pit is in Khazak! Zyder - I would not big up UD2 in terms of flow rates - not saying they could not be high but remember we have perforated only a very small 9.5m part of a 27m interval in over 3000m of prospective intervals. I'm still intrigued as to why this section is reported between 2519m and 2446m when stage 1 and stage 2 was deeper. That might mean it is actually in stage 3 and on top of the 15% contact from stage 2. we shall see. I think its importance is not necessarily the volume of flow as you should be able to extract a larger volume from more ambitious operations than we are doing. It is proving that the formation is productive and commercial. I think they actually proved the quality and that it was productive in Jan but the fact that we have not had any flow reported from the stage 1 and 2 means it was not proven to be commercial (although zaza gave a pretty big hint with the economic model in the presentation of their predictions of the commercials are good once they overcome the problems from the historic drilling mud) and that is what the current work underway should determine. If they are working the third stage then that was all the planned work on the well and they will have gathered all the information they were looking for in working out what to do next which hopefully is the pipeline for some short term funds in H2 2018.

Don't forget the YA new arrangement kicks in on 16th June and we are not sure a vwap does not apply to fix a price even if not you would think YA would want to know whether its cash or shares before the day! So the 10m trades could easily be YA or an other as part of funding the rump conversions. If it was me I'd time this first one carefully to get it away as they are more likely to use equity than cash on the early conversions as they fall due because of the delay between oil and cash in bank from sales. As 16th is a Saturday could be Friday 15th or the Monday 18th. Just like the good old days we will be back analysing satellite imagery soon and that is inspite of getting very regular updates!

All I'll say is that same page has a lot of activity from Russia Kazak operations. I saw it a few days ago and have been reluctant to comment or post on it as it is hugely speculative. A lot of Eastern Europe looks like a big open piece of land like that - it could be absolutely anywhere!

Possibly Dulwich - as long as its Georgia Dream then Ivanshvilli will be pulling the strings! There was a news item last week on him moving full grown trees he has acquired to his garden by boat! Last thing for now - if you look at my block post you cam see the difference between the old and new PSA and the model. Norio is like the Block 12 but Satskhenisi is the more modern PSA but has bits like the old Block 12 PSA. So I think the Satskhenisi PSA and GOGC model owning a share of the field might be the sort of model they might be angling for on the arbitration.