Member Info for mole_man99

Correction, actual FCF does not cover the div, from their own figures.

Real FCF was €1.4bn in 23, and the div was €2.4bn.

The figure they quote is adjusted FCF, where things like spectrum payment are added back in, but they still have to pay them. Look away look away.

The shortfall is currently being funded by selling off assets. There is no growth in the assets base, or even FCF here, hence the apparent low sp, which is actually a bit high. Unless they can prove a strategy for growth in future cash flows.

Sticking prices up is not it.

And where did you read the FCF is down? And where did you read about customer churn?

Adjusted free cash flow is projected €3.3bn. It was €4.8 in 2023, down from over 5. You can see the trend.

I did not say I read about churn. I am highlighting that raising prices is not a magic answer to more profits, so consider it in you valuation model. Stick your contract prices up 14% and the customer will be motivated to seek a better deal, and the better deals are out there so the consumer does have choice.

I think it important to consider both sides and I just post my reasons not to invest.

They are for my own benefit to work out if I was right to switch out in 2018, and still not buy back in. Am I missing a good opportunity now? I don’t think so.

Let good debate enrich us all.

Real revenue down. Impact of contract rises on customer churn yet to appear. Plan to dilute share of UK market, the one Europe area that is growing. Low real cash flow (the one not fiddled with).

A list of 5 depressing dinosaurs to avoid for the bright future.

Only the announcement of the mine location and plan to submit for approval will generate real excitement now.

Drill results will cause a day traders pop that will drift back toward zero if no real plan surfaces. The real investors who can permanently move this have CGNR’s number. 20 years of watching it have done that.

Rob I hope of the stocks you hung in there with, PSN was one of them. The penny is dropping for dumb experts. Inflation heading down. Rates will follow.

Pound strengthening. No 50 degrees and wildfires to deal with.

Damn it’s good to British.

Just signed up for 2 years fast fibre for £17 a month, no landline needed

If VOD try to raise prices, consumers hard up or otherwise can easily find better deals in this market. Churn will be massive if they blindly raise by 14%.

They never say how much they are paying to rent the towers back.

Look, a squirrel!

In 12 months we'll be talking about how the FED, BOE, ECB overreacted, ignored the data and created the deflation environment we are dealing with.

At least VOD will recover a bit for you as interest rates come crashing down.

It’s not cheap if they are losing customers in Germany. Holding in the hope things get better is a gamble. Just be aware.

VOD could easily make the investment if they stopped wasting cash on divs. It’s up to the shareholders if they want to milk it now till it’s dry, or build for a future.

But it's also possible he is correct. VOD is not safe as houses.

So interest rate lolops on to 7%, the market demands a 5% risk excess for holding VOD so div yield needs to be 12%. VOD cut the div in half. SP is 33p.

It can happen. There is always risk. Not selling doesn't magically protect you from losing money. That's just a gamblers fallacy.

Both are big and worthwhile to society. Question is can VOD capitalise on a 5g boom without doing a VOD.

Not sure how you can define VOD as the best div out there. 12 month return including 2 dividends, minus 37.13%

You must consider total returns to consider which the best is.

Or just maybe not enough buyers. Now why would that be?

I don't see this joke stock market. Maybe I am just in the right stocks. Not VOD of course.

And there is the problem. Underground too expensive, open pit not possible over such a large area. They can only possibly maybe get permission for an open pit in a small concentrated area, so why are they drilling all over clontibret.

That permission will also be years away if at all, so not sure where the end of year date is coming from.

VOD's own share of UK market will deliberately shrink to offload some debt. Market is not so excited therefore. €11bn more needed to invest. More debt probably.

Renaissance Tech sold off 2.91m ADR's to reduce their holding in the quarter. Selling not buying.