Member Info for mole_man99

It’s basically reliant on the trajectory of interest rates from here. Rates down, sp up or visa versa.

The results next week will adjust the base from which this happens. Cash flows better than expected, base price up. Worse down.

Those two factors outweigh sentiment for the sp here.

Long term, investors need to decide if the debt and the distribution overpayment can be maintained.

Hi Rob, yes it will fall if they cut the div of course, but if they overpay a div it will fall by at least the overpayment.

They have made a rod for their backs for sure by paying a div.

If no divi had ever been paid you would own a debt free company, the only debt free teleco in the world, who could be disrupting the market with low tariffs. Sp may be £3.

Which version of the company made the better return?

Badly managed divs and buybacks are the devils work.

They can’t pay it off as they keep paying it out as a dividend.

The alternative conclusion is they took on 50bn of debt to pay out 50bn of divs.

It’s a legal ponzi and at some point the investors will have to pay it back, which is happening through the declining SP.

Just be aware if your intention here is to collect a div.

Are you watching the global theatre? Div only stocks will not rise until the bond market rout fades which won’t happen until rates start falling and we see that the trillions in low rate bonds and debt can be successfully refinanced into higher rate debt.

BofA announced over $100bn in paper losses on bond holdings. If depositors come looking for their money they will have to sell and lose the money. Just a small example of the mess the man is trying to unwind hidden behind a curtain.

No substantial run for VOD any time soon.

Bored people do dumb stuff.

The divi is only great if it is genuinely covered by real FCF, which it isn't. What that means is, the assets of the company shrink as it sells them off, or borrows, to pay said divi. The SP will decline by the dividend going out until this changes, if it ever does.

The real yield here is probably half what the div suggests, which is not enough risk premium over money market funds now, which is why the big money that moves prices stays clear.

When interest rates start declining, and not before. Doubtful that is this year.

Hi Rob. Not sure it matters to any company who gets in any more. They are career politicians now saying what you want to hear to get in, then dealing with the realities of global economics once in office. The debt to fund the promises is getting out of control. There is no more money.

That’s a cheery start to the week.

VOD will not be a pound by this Christmas. There is too much pain stored up in the global financial system.

US interest payments on debt hit $800bn. Bond auctions to pay for it are failing, so the equity risk premium of stocks over bonds is hitting all time highs.

As a quasi bond, VOD is more likely to go down than up by Christmas.

If you believe In the management and the long term strategy (?) then you’ll get offered some bargain prices, but not a quick profit at a pound.

Starlink direct to Cell is announced. Text in 2024, voice, data and IOT connections 2025.

Business only listed on site at present. Updating satellites to do it takes time, but considering they said it couldn't be done, the threat to tower based coms moves forwards.

No white swans. Definite Flock of Seagulls. A new wave perhaps.

FED comments depressing the markets today. Another quarter point then hold for an extended period. Bond yields up. Div stocks less attractive.

Northern Rock had no issue with gutters mates not paying their loans. They had become reliant on short term funding market to service their own debt that they were lending out long term. When the short term funding market seized up, it was northern rock who could not service their own debts.

If you are going to educate gutter, probably helps to get the facts right.

Happy Sunday everyone.

What are you expecting Margherite to sort out. Until stakeholders admit the fault in the current strategy and stop wasting borrowed money on dividends, and reinvest instead, nothing has changed so nothing will change.

Margharite has just continued with the bad strategy and shows no signs of being different. She can sort nothing out until the strategy is changed.

Tough lesson for the weekend, but there we are.

I think he means the unfathomable trillions of commercial real estate loans that can’t be refinanced globally leading to the complete meltdown of the bank system underpinning the debt based economy leading to financial hardship unrest then war.

Then again, it may all just blow over.

Who will be right tomorrow. Can hardly contain myself.

The mole has it currently at €13.5bn. Based on real FCF and the markets desired ROR on that cash flow which gone up significantly with higher interest rates.

I agree though the assets could have a higher value for an industry purchaser. Will someone go for it? I remain in the no camp at it’s current value.

VOD really should of been establishing a sat network instead of wasting money on a div this last 10 years.

I think the consensus is now 100% for a FED pause, which means they will raise rates to remind us who is in charge. They can justify it with the MoM data which shows inflation rising again.

Positive response to uk inflation falling more than thought. Still at 6.7 but going in the right direction.

Attention will then switch to US where the rising oil price will probably give a false negative in the data causing FED to raise again.

Will they won’t they. What fun.