Member Info for mole_man99

There's that multibag nonsense again. It's why the prof has been able to keep the scheme going so long. Always fresh investors looking to lose money.

TradingView charts allow you to include dividends. Very handy for deciding if a div stock has been worth it.

So including divs, VOD

5 yr return -31%

Since VZ high -53%

10 yr return -47%

20 yr return +75%

SP500 inc divs 20yr return +570%

There are better ways to get an income than VOD divs.

The first 2bn due to be frittered away as company have no idea how else to invest the cash in future growth for a better return. To inflate the EPS figure for performance pay packages they choose a buyback instead of paying down debt.

Investors eventually pay the price for these decisions.

If Demir sign for stage 2 I agree it will suggest they think there is a viable mine, but that is not the key issue here.

The main issue is that they will not get permission for a large gold mine in the area. 20 years ago they could of steamrollered the importance of a gold mine over the locals concerns, but the world has changed.

The environmental concerns will stop any large scale digging up of green land, especially as it is just for gold. There is no need to extract gold any more. There is enough to satisfy any important industrial need, and it would work much better as a store of value if miners stopped adding to the stock.

Golds stock to flow ratio is not good as an inflation hedge and store of value.

Just leave the gold in the ground and grow food on it instead.

VOD is obsessed with giving money to investors. Fine if you can afford it, but VOD never could, hence the SP decline which is equal to the giveaway.

Companies that use their assets to generate a better return on investment for investors by investing in the growth of the company do much better for investors over time, and are certainly less boring.

Has VOD changed it's strategy? It seems to be selling stuff to get money for investors now. When that runs out, then what?

They'll come up with some investor pleasing news soon as the cash runs out shortly. Need to raise the next million somehow. With such a low market cap, it's going to be quite a trick this time.

The Prof and Maureen could always agree to work for performance pay only. That would help stop the drain and the dilution while you wait out the next decade.

Interest rates falling and/or real FCF rising with clear strategy to suggest it can be sustained are what you are watching for.

Paint a wall and watch it dry. It’s more exciting, or swap some funds to the dark side into companies investing to shape the future.

Some interesting info on Starlink Direct to cell below. It's not going to be restricted to some remote school in the Amazon. They are partnering with telco's to use their LTE spectrum, so maybe some hope there for VOD.

2024 and there is still no cell signal in my mum's house on edge of major town. There's got to be a better way.

https://api.starlink.com/public-files/DIRECT_TO_CELL_FIRST_TEXT_UPDATE.pdf

It maintained high speed link with Starship travelling at Mach 25 too, beaming down first ever re-entry images. Just incredible really.

Message on interest rates is beginning to pivot following fed yesterday so all div type things are rising. UK own inflation data better than expected.

Is expressing zero emotions natural?

No, but controlling them makes for better investing.

Selling because a sp falls is an emotional reaction. Holding to recover a loss or for fear of missing some future upward movement is an emotional reaction.

If you pick individual stocks you must make some statistical analysis and assessment of the company strategy and management and buy hold or sell based on your results. That is not emotional.

Emotional investors will be easily panicked out of stocks when they fall and equally buy in too high because a stock is rising.

You got to do the work and become less emotional.

All purchases, save a few in Feb below 67p, since October 2011 are underwater including all dividends. Purchases from July 99 to Dec 2000 are also underwater including divs.

In terms of SP only, now back to November 1997

Quite an achievement.

Divs paid by borrowing don't work.

That argument was raging when it was 1.20 and the previous buyback in full swing. The evidence from that suggests a buyback has zero effect, possibly negative effect, if you are using assets to buyback the stock.

It only works if excess capital generated from earnings is being used.

I do like the way they snuck in the inevitable div cut under the guise of a capital allocation program. It’s so 2018.

Any pensioners out there using this for income do the calculations in selling up and converting to annuity. Getting quoted 6.6% at the mo.

Not financial advice of course.

Div cut in half but still lashing out cash to investors through buyback funded by asset sale. 35p is the new target but may take a few years to get there.

Like the last buyback program, a long drawn out affair of sp decline as assets leave the company.

If they don't get earnings up they will of given away all the assets of the company in dividends long before 20 years.

The world does not stand still. A bunch of rusting masts may not be the way to communicate by then either. Starlink subscribers has accelerated to 2.6m.

They need to be keeping the cash to invest.

A 100xpe is not insane if the company is growing earings 50% pa. This is what I find UK investors fail to grasp and stay stuck in old dead industries, because they have found some sort of 'value', and it pays a safe div right?

PE is a bit of a blunt intrument to try and value growth companies anyway.

I think the worlds big companies (and definitely small) are just exhausted running their businesses right now. Few want to raise billions in capital to buy someone elses exhausting problems at a premium. Just blunder on dealing with your own 100,000 staff arguing over not coming in to the office and what pronoun they want to use.

If VOD falls to silly levels it may attract a buyer, but 70p is not silly enough, for the current world.

Hi Edochan. I lost about £500 over 20 years ago. Approx as my paperwork is long burnt. Was about 1500p a share or something, split adjusted.

So you can see, no particular amount of burning to make me bitter. In the following years I just posted here occasionally to share my thought of how an owner company can use the market to raise capital to pay themselves without really doing very much.

Yes they have a partner now, but I think it's worth potential investors considering how likely it could actually be to dig up vast tracts of ireland just for gold. In the period since I invested, pollution from and care and maintenance of tailings dams has become a recognised issue. I really think the residents will fight any application so hard it will cost millions, and years, and if they don't have the grades, the resulting mine profits would not cover the costs of appeal.

Dalradian is up to 100m I think fighting their application. The public consultation began in 2016, 8 years ago. Next appeal date is set for this year. 50,000 objections.

Just stuff to consider before going all-in on the no brainer 10 bagger.

https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dalradian-gold-public-inquiry-dates-28617378

CPI inflation data slightly higher than expected/hoped, so market baking in the higher for longer narrative which does hurt debt management companies.