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Whilst it is known, I don’t think the market will fully bring the drop into the sp until it is after the last higher payment. Market wants to see how interest rates are by then which greatly effects the calculation, and also of course be looking at how VOD are doing, so waiting for those May numbers.
After June when the div is cut to under 4p, and you still want 5% over treasuries, how does the SP calculation look?
>> The JV has been a disappointment because Demir take forever to do anything. Again hardly the profs fault.
As MD it is his fault. The slowness of Turkish companies is well known in the business community. He should have been honest when the JV was signed. 10 years to get to mine application. 10 years for application and appeal process.
You can then decide if it pays to support the prof and Maureen for 20 years, and what annualised gain you may of achieved by then, allowing for a probability of success.
Much less than just investing in an SP tracker I would say, with a lot more risk.
The next announcement will be to raise more cash. They are due to run out in the next couple of months.
Fraser probably figuring out there is too much to do here to get profitable again and they don’t want to be Phoenix’s way out, unless it is a bargain. Get the market cap well under 10m and they may make an offer.
But why buy a pile of headache anyway?
He has a very abrasive way of highlighting the most likely outcome. Once the div cut takes effect post June exdiv, the sp will most likely fall so new div can yield 5% over treasuries.
Unless there is some change of strategy to tell investors why draining assets to hand out cash is not the priority.
Falling interest rates looking less likely to come to the rescue this year. We can’t lower much ahead of US or the currency will get decimated.
More mole twaddle.
Print worse than consensus. BBC headline 'Damon says rates could rise to 8%'. VOD down. It's how it goes is all I am saying. I don't think they will, but it helps you understand why VOD is down.
Unfortunately world not out the woods yet even if print is ok. Jamie Dimon is running around telling folk rates will go to 8%. Whether you agree or not, big money listens to him and will position accordingly.
We’ll all have to wait for inflation to turn negative before banks start reducing rates, too late of course but that is how it works. Reactionary not preemptive.
2026 looking good.
The div is now cut as VOD are now in their 2025 financial year.
There's that multibag nonsense again. It's why the prof has been able to keep the scheme going so long. Always fresh investors looking to lose money.
TradingView charts allow you to include dividends. Very handy for deciding if a div stock has been worth it.
So including divs, VOD
5 yr return -31%
Since VZ high -53%
10 yr return -47%
20 yr return +75%
SP500 inc divs 20yr return +570%
There are better ways to get an income than VOD divs.
The first 2bn due to be frittered away as company have no idea how else to invest the cash in future growth for a better return. To inflate the EPS figure for performance pay packages they choose a buyback instead of paying down debt.
Investors eventually pay the price for these decisions.
If Demir sign for stage 2 I agree it will suggest they think there is a viable mine, but that is not the key issue here.
The main issue is that they will not get permission for a large gold mine in the area. 20 years ago they could of steamrollered the importance of a gold mine over the locals concerns, but the world has changed.
The environmental concerns will stop any large scale digging up of green land, especially as it is just for gold. There is no need to extract gold any more. There is enough to satisfy any important industrial need, and it would work much better as a store of value if miners stopped adding to the stock.
Golds stock to flow ratio is not good as an inflation hedge and store of value.
Just leave the gold in the ground and grow food on it instead.
VOD is obsessed with giving money to investors. Fine if you can afford it, but VOD never could, hence the SP decline which is equal to the giveaway.
Companies that use their assets to generate a better return on investment for investors by investing in the growth of the company do much better for investors over time, and are certainly less boring.
Has VOD changed it's strategy? It seems to be selling stuff to get money for investors now. When that runs out, then what?
They'll come up with some investor pleasing news soon as the cash runs out shortly. Need to raise the next million somehow. With such a low market cap, it's going to be quite a trick this time.
The Prof and Maureen could always agree to work for performance pay only. That would help stop the drain and the dilution while you wait out the next decade.
Interest rates falling and/or real FCF rising with clear strategy to suggest it can be sustained are what you are watching for.
Paint a wall and watch it dry. It’s more exciting, or swap some funds to the dark side into companies investing to shape the future.
Some interesting info on Starlink Direct to cell below. It's not going to be restricted to some remote school in the Amazon. They are partnering with telco's to use their LTE spectrum, so maybe some hope there for VOD.
2024 and there is still no cell signal in my mum's house on edge of major town. There's got to be a better way.
https://api.starlink.com/public-files/DIRECT_TO_CELL_FIRST_TEXT_UPDATE.pdf
It maintained high speed link with Starship travelling at Mach 25 too, beaming down first ever re-entry images. Just incredible really.
Message on interest rates is beginning to pivot following fed yesterday so all div type things are rising. UK own inflation data better than expected.
Is expressing zero emotions natural?
No, but controlling them makes for better investing.
Selling because a sp falls is an emotional reaction. Holding to recover a loss or for fear of missing some future upward movement is an emotional reaction.
If you pick individual stocks you must make some statistical analysis and assessment of the company strategy and management and buy hold or sell based on your results. That is not emotional.
Emotional investors will be easily panicked out of stocks when they fall and equally buy in too high because a stock is rising.
You got to do the work and become less emotional.