RE: "Avacta - its covid game soon to be up says Tom Winnifrith..."10 Jun 2020 16:08
Here is the recent stab at Avacta he has just sent out:
When you have just raised £48 million of dumb money you cannot turn around a week later and scream SUCKERS! No. You have to pretend that the reason your shares raced away and that the fools piled in greedily is still valid. But it is not, and at some stage Avacta (AVCT) will have to admit as much...
Six weeks ago 1,005 folks dies of Covid 10 in just one day in the UK. We were all panicked by the Government’s project fear into accepting home imprisonment and the wrecking of the economy and everyone wanted to buy shares in companies that could help tackle the crisis. More recently 55 folks deaths were reported in a day and these are a 18 day lagging indicator of infection so in a few weeks deaths will be almost nil and irrespective of policy response that is happening across the globe. This virus is dying out. At the worst it is going to be just another disease going forward and one with a tiny death rate.
Avacta is developing a test for Covid with its partner Adeptrix and now says that the test has reached prototype stage. Wow and double wow! Do you think it might have a treatment for that nasty sunburn I developed two years ago? We are told that the next step in the development of the final product to run on the installed base of mass spectrometers in clinical laboratories around the world is to evaluate and optimise the BAMS assay using patient samples at laboratory sites in the UK and US which will be done imminently before moving to manufacturing, clinical validation to quantify the sensitivity and specificity and CE/FDA approval for professional use in the summer. At this rate by the time the test is launched there will be almost no-one dying of the virus and almost no-one showing any symptoms and needing a test. Of course, there will be some bedwetting teachers and university lecturers still demanding tests until the cows come home but in the end even they will realise this game is up.
Before the Covid hype Avacta was a very early stage cancer play with shares trading at 20p. Okay, the company now has another 18p of cash but it will be spunking that at an alarming rate. The shares have now fallen below 150p and as folks realise that the Covid horse has been flogged to death this stock is going only one way. Some hope that the shares will be boosted by TR1s showing that “specialist US investors” backed the placing. They may have done. We used to hear the same sort of nonsense in the dot com and mining booms. Most of the placing cash came from flippers both retail and institutional. As it dawns on them that the bubble is bursting they will not be hanging around while the “smart” money will be shown to be anything but.
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